BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just got home have not read up on all day happings, But looks pretty good for some now. NWS still says no accums much ? .TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...RAIN...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. SLEET. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW...SLEET...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SLEET LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thundersnow FTW. Anyone who hasn't experienced thundersnow and gets some from this system is in for a real treat...It's incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sorry i should have been more specific. Mostly NC. But the 12z nam did show it close for that area where GA/SC/NC meet. At this point, it's all probably as good as throwing darts. But in general, i think a slower and stronger storm would probably be better for everyone. Well then I hope the NAM is right because that's exactly where I am....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I have seen it here before believe it or not, when we got 4.2" a couple years back. I was wondering why the sky was flashing green then I heard it. Pretty cool if it happens again. Give me 4+ again and I wont complain either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NWS/Jackson,KY has a WSW now out for Eastern,KY. They are going for 4-10 inches for all of East,KY with the higher amounts along the KY/VA border. They have rain changing to snow Tuesday night. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ088&warncounty=KYC095&firewxzone=KYZ088&local_place1=2+Miles+SW+Harlan+KY&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch Only a SWS for here as NWSFO's have differing opinions apparently. (This area is governed by KMRX/Morristown,Tn.) They have rain here thru Tuesday night mixing with or changing to snow Wednesday with only a dusting to 2 inches expected for the lower elevations with 3-5 higher eles. but, possibly 6 or more. It is no doubt going to be hard to predict amounts with the borderline temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 good info thanks. I "think" you got this from news of the day archives? I went there and there is a great deal of info and analysis for that storm. Interesting to note they said "The synoptic pattern leading up to and including the event was consistent with patterns that typically do not produce major winter storms in central North Carolina..." I looked at the nws site for Atl and they only go back to 2008 with their news archives. dangit. here is the snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thanks, just found it. Thats more like it. I dropped to 30 and remained there for the duration. But once it ended it went below freezing, not sure how far but the snowpack did a number on air temps here. Just saw the 18z NAM out to 36 and its sfc low is sw GA. seems they have updated (as i knew they would this afternoon), and are hedging toward a more formal solution for the lee side of things...and yes, can't blame them for not being any more specific at this time, given all the uncertainties (still) present... interesting that several of our most experienced folk seem to hint at more for east of the Apps...and at elevations lower than the 2500 singled out in the AFD... well, i reckon we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 KHSV just issued a WSW. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=hun&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Have you seen any model or any met on here show or talk about freezing rain, or sleet? They cover all the bases rain, freezing rain,sleet, and snow. Just got home have not read up on all day happings, But looks pretty good for some now. NWS still says no accums much ? .TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...RAIN...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. SLEET. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW...SLEET...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SLEET LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just got home have not read up on all day happings, But looks pretty good for some now. NWS still says no accums much ? .TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...RAIN...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. SLEET. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW...SLEET...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN SLEET LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Just A thought but i'm thinking they don't usually give a mounts until either a WWA or WSM IS issued but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Have you seen any model or any met on here show or talk about freezing rain, or sleet? They cover all the bases rain, freezing rain,sleet, and snow. No, I know it's rain or snow thing..... I just don't understand them sometimes, Heck I can put out a forecast like that cover ever precip type and bound to be right. lol NO model shows sleet or freezing rain, But I guess anything is possible. BTW- What's your thoughts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 FFC issues another HORRIBLE FORECAST for your Northwest part of the forecast area. What new data today makes you take out Accums that the morning shift had in out? How do you not see what anyone else around you sees? This office continues to amaze me in its terrible products. If we get the dynamics to switch over to Heavy wet snow to fall how does it not accumulate under the deform band? Yes FFC Snow at intense rates do accumulate with temps 33-35 degrees...Unreal....Mean while next door not only are offices mentioning accumulations but even watches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 BMX thinks guidance is running 10 degrees too warm FORECAST GRIDS WISE...TRENDED MUCH LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AS I DON'T THINK THEY ARE HANDLING TEMPERATURES WELL ENOUGH. PHYSICAL SOLUTION SUGGEST THAT MOS MAY BE RUNNING ALMOST 10 DEGREES TOO WARM. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL NOW REFLECT AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT SNOW FALL. IN ADDITION...SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THENORTHERN HALF AREA OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HOWEVER...BRIEF ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN HALF WHICH MOST OF THAT ACCUMULATION SHOULD MELT AWAY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Does anyone have any data on Feb 1, 2007? I bring this up because it might be a similar situation. This was before I read an wx boards. I just remember the forecast being for a very cold rain, temps maybe in the mid 30s). We got about 5 inches between 3am and 8am that morning of Feb 1. It was very localized, as just 15 minutes away in Dawsonville I think they only got mostly rain. (BTW I was in Dahlonega at just below 1500 ft). I would be curious to see what other areas in NE GA and N. Carolina got with this one, and to know if that pattern was anywhere close to what we have this week. i do not recall the exact set up but certainly the event! i had been reading here and there was talk about snow over rain. woke up to see rain but instead it was snow. ended up being heavy snow for about 5 hours (as you posted, just an hour or so later here) and got 5". it was very localized from you to rabun/hab county. i do not believe it even made much headway into the upstate. that was a great snowfall btw as for the next event, its looking like its going be a little farther north....although i guess 50 miles either way could make a huge difference for some folks. pretty bad realizing whats being shown on most models, yet i am hoping for a miracle or southern track outlier to be right and still checking the models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Let me add even BMX is issuing Winter Storm Watches for parts of it counties... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just A thought but i'm thinking they don't usually give a mounts until either a WWA or WSM IS issued but I could be wrong. No, I've seen them put like lgt accums, Mod accums, Heavy accums possible. without a WSW or WWA BTW- Welcome to the forum Where are you at in the N.foothills ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Astute observation. In fact, on January 10 for NC, things ended up WAY south and east of what was forecast, as in Pender and Onslow counties! i think that may have been a slightly different set up where we had cold arctic air that the models werent handling all that well. this set up is a little different - no real source of cold air (the major problem thats keeping most of us rain instead of snow). too bad it didnt come in this morning when it would have been snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ok I understand that putting out advisories/watches for FFC's counties in northern (higher elevations) georgia maybe jumping the gun at this point in time, but why not put out a special weather statement at least mentioning the possiblity of accumulating snow? I think a couple inches of wet snow is rather likely north of a rome to gainesville line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ok I understand that putting out advisories/watches for FFC's counties in northern (higher elevations) georgia maybe jumping the gun at this point in time, but why not put out a special weather statement at least mentioning the possiblity of accumulating snow? I think a couple inches of wet snow is rather likely north of a rome to gainesville line... seems like the nws has really tapered back on their special wx statements. seems like they used to be issued fairly frequently for various things. i have probably had 5 in the last several years (either that or mby is just really boring wx wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 While the precip. map didn't look that much different, the nam had some major changes, mainly to speed up the system about 6 hours compared to 12z. It also shifted the 500mb low a little further north, thus the really heavy precipitation doesn't start till we are further north in the foothills of NC. The WNC mountains do get some decent precipitation, but nowhere near the amounts further north and east. The new NC bullseye according to the NAM is Greensboro, where Bufkit says that could get up to 9" of snow. Basically... like Robert said, there will be a location that could get upwards of 6" of snowfall... but where is the big question, and the models have not completely converged on a solution that would allow us to give a specific location. I'll update my blog later tonight to try to give a better idea on who has the best chance to get under the heaviest deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 10 degrees?!??! Yikes! If that's true, Robert would laugh his way to immortality while .... oh never mind on that part. BMX thinks guidance is running 10 degrees too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z looks a tad further NW and the ULL is stronger when it first gets going, this is going to hammer someone on this run hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 LOL Going to be warm Skip.... This storm, man this storm has brought it all my friend. 10 degrees?!??! Yikes! If that's true, Robert would laugh his way to immortality while .... oh never mind on that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z is saying huge rain for us and then that ULL is much stronger so big time rain for someone with big time snow on the back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 No, I've seen them put like lgt accums, Mod accums, Heavy accums possible. without a WSW or WWA BTW- Welcome to the forum Where are you at in the N.foothills ? Close to Pine Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Congrats to Foothills...while some said it would be nothing but rain for places like north Alabama, we now have a Winter Storm Watch. Way to stick to your guns and know what you were talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z is saying huge rain for us and then that ULL is much stronger so big time rain for someone with big time snow on the back end Yeah, but this run might take alot of western NC and east TN out of it for snow, the ULL is more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 @39 the ULL is crossing into KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Close to Pine Ridge I know where that is, lol I get deer corn from Monroe Johnson up there....... Sorry bout the OT, Now back to weather ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thundersnow in Spartanburg on the 18z NAM: http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_kspa.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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