superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z NAM is running... [obligatory] This may be the biggest model run yet! [/obligatory] Looks about the same so far, maybe a little stronger EDIT: Looks a little more positively tilted than the 12z run at hr 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I can't believe they didn't mention the deformation band in WNC late Wednesday, only the upslope. I guess they aren't buying into one. granted i have only been able to pay about 1/2 as much attention to day as usual (of course seeing the dreaded loss of the storm for n ga its probably not a bad thing)...but it may be that too few people would be greatly affected as it will probably be a small area getting pounded, with the rest of us as rain. since it will be high impact, but probably just a small number, maybe they are still waiting to see how this evolves over night or (the real reason) they are all just as bummed as us they arent getting a major snow storm and are in their own spiral of depression lol (j/k) We never went below freezing during that event in March 2009...in fact, we were around 34 the entire event. same here until the end - we must have had hour upon hour of heavy snow with very little accumulation. but since lookout was hit (and this was i think the beginning of the end of his screwzone lol) i wasnt too upset over that one. i did get to see a lot of snow fall 18z NAM is running... [obligatory] This may be the biggest model run yet! [/obligatory] Looks about the same so far, maybe a little stronger EDIT: Looks a little more positively tilted than the 12z run at hr 30. unless its farther south so it will hit many more of us with snow, they dont even need to run it today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 HUN issuing Winter Storm Watches this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 unless its farther south so it will hit many more of us with snow, they dont even need to run it today lol LOL. It may be a hair south at hr 30 at 500 mb, but it's splitting hairs. Not a whole lot of difference there. Still slightly positively tilted at hr 36 and not closed off, which is a change from the 12z. Backside snow in Mississippi if the low levels support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Robert, That is the AM AFD. They just came out with the PM AFD and it is in there. I would link it but am at work. It is pretty much a re-hash of this thread throughout the day. Thanks, just found it. Thats more like it. There it is.. We never went below freezing during that event in March 2009...in fact, we were around 34 the entire event. I dropped to 30 and remained there for the duration. But once it ended it went below freezing, not sure how far but the snowpack did a number on air temps here. Just saw the 18z NAM out to 36 and its sfc low is sw GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This run is about a carbon copy so far of the 12z. It has the deformation band going strongly sweeping into north Ga all of western NC most of upstate SC and sweeps across agood chunk of Tenn. In fact by 54 hours its a very large band, maybe not as intense but larger geo. area to encompass a much bigger base of real estate. The surface low looks a little offshore. And the 5H system goes due east from just north of BHM to just north of ATL to around CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z NAM slower to close off ULL until it reaches AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polarexpress00 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This run is about a carbon copy so far of the 12z. It has the deformation band going strongly sweeping into north Ga all of western NC most of upstate SC and sweeps across agood chunk of Tenn. In fact by 54 hours its a very large band, maybe not as intense but larger geo. area to encompass a much bigger base of real estate. The surface low looks a little offshore. And the 5H system goes due east from just north of BHM to just north of ATL to around CAE. Robert is there still hope in my area or should i stick a fork in this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its really a large and intense band for northern NC and up to central VA but apparently it gets a much larger area into the game for snow. It will depend on rates, I'm sure not everybody under the qpf will be getting snow, as indicative of what normally happens with ULL but the amounts of qpf its showing is pretty staggering, so if its anywhere close to correct, there will be an uncanny snowfall in a short time somewhere beneath that strengthening band from HSV to AVL to INT , to GSO ROA or any side of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM certainly keeps hope alive for a lot of people around here. Best of luck to Winston, Shelby, Danville, etc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Man, that deformation band means business. Unfortunately, it looks like the main axis is still going to set up just north and west of RDU...but the border counties and much of central VA get smacked, plus the western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was not trying to stir things up yesterday on the comment I made about the met. I was just really tired of reading his arrogant post. So sorry if I ticked some off, that was not my intention. np . North GA can't absolutely be ruled out, so keep the forks for dinner, imo. But most other models do place this band more north by a few miles. Either way, its going to get awfully close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its really a large and intense band for northern NC and up to central VA but apparently it gets a much larger area into the game for snow. It will depend on rates, I'm sure not everybody under the qpf will be getting snow, as indicative of what normally happens with ULL but the amounts of qpf its showing is pretty staggering, so if its anywhere close to correct, there will be an uncanny snowfall in a short time somewhere beneath that strengthening band from HSV to AVL to INT , to GSO ROA or any side of that line. is seems like so far this year things have ended up a little SE of forecast, wonder if that will apply to this ULL would love a repeat of March 09. Did you get to see the flizzard we had going on this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Still looks like a swing and a miss for CLT though the SV snow maps have us in it.....this just shows that this needs to monitored closely even for the CLT metro. a track slightly south and east and look out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Funny run -- it speeds up all the main features (vs. 12z NAM) but leaves behind a broader precip shield. For example on the 12z run at 0z Thursday, the 5h center was over Columbia, S.C. -- on the 18z run at 0z Thursday it's near the Triangle. Same with the 850 low -- I think the main difference is that when that sucker went negative, it REALLY went on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Boy was I hit hard again. Kinda shook me a little, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hi-Res 12z WRF closes off ULL well west of other guidance. Over TX/LA. Stays closed all the way to end of run. http://www.nco.ncep....sw_500_039m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 is seems like so far this year things have ended up a little SE of forecast, wonder if that will apply to this ULL would love a repeat of March 09. Did you get to see the flizzard we had going on this morning? well I think the chances of lightning striking twice here are remote, but further to our north is probably in for it. Its worth watching since we're only a few miles from the heart of the deformation band, and the models, even in concensus, have been wrong before just a sliver, which made a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Interesting to see that the next shortwave (which the 12z GFS left out over the Baja) is in central Texas on the 18z NAM at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Does anyone have any data on Feb 1, 2007? I bring this up because it might be a similar situation. This was before I read an wx boards. I just remember the forecast being for a very cold rain, temps maybe in the mid 30s). We got about 5 inches between 3am and 8am that morning of Feb 1. It was very localized, as just 15 minutes away in Dawsonville I think they only got mostly rain. (BTW I was in Dahlonega at just below 1500 ft). I would be curious to see what other areas in NE GA and N. Carolina got with this one, and to know if that pattern was anywhere close to what we have this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Boy was I hit hard again. Kinda shook me a little, +1. you have more room for error than me of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Does anyone have any data on Feb 1, 2007? I bring this up because it might be a similar situation. This was before I read an wx boards. I just remember the forecast being for a very cold rain, temps maybe in the mid 30s). We got about 5 inches between 3am and 8am that morning of Feb 1. It was very localized, as just 15 minutes away in Dawsonville I think they only got mostly rain. (BTW I was in Dahlonega at just below 1500 ft). I would be curious to see what other areas in NE GA and N. Carolina got with this one, and to know if that pattern was anywhere close to what we have this week. I'm just NW of Hickory, NC. On that Feb 1, 2007, I had a wintry mix of snow/sleet, but nothing ever accumulated. I had 0.30 inches of precip for that date. In that March 1-2, 2009, storm that everyone is mentioning, I ended up with 2.5 inches of accumulation. The serious stuff was to my east or west. Most of Caldwell County in the shadow of the mountains experienced downsloping that time that seriously reduced accumulations. Kinda stunk! I hope that doesn't happen again. I want the dump of snow this time around, but we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm just NW of Hickory, NC. On that Feb 1, 2007, I had a wintry mix of snow/sleet, but nothing ever accumulated. I had 0.30 inches of precip for that date. In that March 1-2, 2009, storm that everyone is mentioning, I ended up with 2.5 inches of accumulation. The serious stuff was to my east or west. Most of Caldwell County in the shadow of the mountains experienced downsloping that time that seriously reduced accumulations. Kinda stunk! I hope that doesn't happen again. I want the dump of snow this time around, but we'll see what happens. I believe that Feb 1 storm it just snowed on and off all day here with nothing accumulating...one of those "if only the ground was cold enough" events...but then again I could be getting that mixed up with something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Does anyone have any data on Feb 1, 2007? I bring this up because it might be a similar situation. This was before I read an wx boards. I just remember the forecast being for a very cold rain, temps maybe in the mid 30s). We got about 5 inches between 3am and 8am that morning of Feb 1. It was very localized, as just 15 minutes away in Dawsonville I think they only got mostly rain. (BTW I was in Dahlonega at just below 1500 ft). I would be curious to see what other areas in NE GA and N. Carolina got with this one, and to know if that pattern was anywhere close to what we have this week. here is the snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hi-Res 12z WRF closes off ULL well west of other guidance. Over TX/LA. Stays closed all the way to end of run. http://www.nco.ncep....sw_500_039m.gif I'm starting to think the quicker this cuts off the better, as it will allow this axis of snow to start setting up a little bit sooner. Right now, it looks like it would probably set up just in time for the northern mountains and foothills but it's still too close for comfort. The wrf is probably the best case scenario as a quicker cutoff would probably mean a slower, stronger, more dynamic storm. And due to the fact this pattern doesn't support an apps runner, i seriously doubt we have to worry about it tracking too far inland if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 000FXUS64 KOHX 242058AFDOHXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN258 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011.DISCUSSION...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR SPOTTY DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES INMID STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 40S ATALL LOCATIONS. GULF OF MEXICO LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG TEXASCOAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ASHORE IN LOUISIANA LATE TONIGHTSPREADING PRECIP NORTHWARD AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THEREWILL BE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ESPECIALLY NORTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLYTUESDAY AND THEN ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SURFACE LOWWORKS ALONG COASTAL AREA AND INTO PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA BY 00Z WED.UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGER PLAYER HERE IN THE MID STATECOME TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER LASTCOUPLE OF RUNS. MY CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWEVENT ACROSS THE MID STATE/PLATEAU. HAVE ISSUED SPS ADDRESSINGTHIS EVENT SO WILL NOT REPEAT CONTENTS HERE. TEMPERATURE PROFILESREMAIN SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER. WITHDEFORMATION FIELD SETTING UP OVER AREA PER GFS AND CRAS...ALONGWITH DYNAMICAL COOLING MY CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED BUT NOT ENOUGHTO GO WITH A LATE 3RD PERIOD WINTER STORM WATCH AS AMOUNTS STILLQUESTIONABLE. ALSO WITH UPPER LOW PASSING SO CLOSE TO CWA COULDALSO GET CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW.NO REAL WARMUP THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. TEMPS ARE AVERAGINGNEARLY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS MONTH SO FAR.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...NASHVILLE 34 45 30 37 / 20 40 70 40CLARKSVILLE 31 41 27 36 / 20 40 60 20CROSSVILLE 30 46 32 38 / 20 50 80 70COLUMBIA 34 45 31 38 / 20 60 70 40LAWRENCEBURG 33 45 31 39 / 30 70 80 30WAVERLY 32 43 29 38 / 20 50 70 20&&.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && Thundersnow FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 is seems like so far this year things have ended up a little SE of forecast, wonder if that will apply to this ULL would love a repeat of March 09. Did you get to see the flizzard we had going on this morning? Astute observation. In fact, on January 10 for NC, things ended up WAY south and east of what was forecast, as in Pender and Onslow counties! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm starting to think the quicker this cuts off the better, as it will allow this axis of snow to start setting up a little bit sooner. Right now, it looks like it would probably set up just in time for the northern mountains and foothills but it's still too close for comfort. The wrf is probably the best case scenario as a quicker cutoff would probably mean a slower, stronger, more dynamic storm. And due to the fact this pattern doesn't support an apps runner, i seriously doubt we have to worry about it tracking too far inland if that happens. When you say northern mountains...you mean NC mountains or N/NE GA mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 When you say northern mountains...you mean NC mountains or N/NE GA mountains? Sorry i should have been more specific. Mostly NC. But the 12z nam did show it close for that area where GA/SC/NC meet. At this point, it's all probably as good as throwing darts. But in general, i think a slower and stronger storm would probably be better for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Interesting sounding in Shelby (KEHO) from the 18z NAM. At 48 hours and 54 hours -- no chance of snow at all -- multiple layers well above freezing. It's only at 51 hours that we have a shot -- surface at 1.8 with all other layers below freezing. Given that this is, right now, the best case model, I'd say our chances of squeezing out any accumulations are pretty slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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