burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Brad Panovich's new video is great. He describes everything anyone needs to know. http://wxbrad.blogsp...uch-needed.html Great disco on there, good thing the NAM soundings show snow for CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 thinking all of N. GA, WNC, Upstate and E. Tenn. are real big winners. This storm will have a lot of cold air with it the dynamics look to be so strong once precip gets going good atmosphere will cool down and there will be a lot of wet snow on the NW side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ignorance is bliss my friend. Enjoy your experts deformation band. Are you an upper Mid-Atlantic transplant? Personally, all I saw was straight up analysis of the NAM run and the Pro's providing information on where things were going, in regards to that model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just a thought but when will the next cold front come through?Also what the chances this storm gets delayed even more and doesn't come thru until thurn or thurs night .We've heard everything so far with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just a thought but when will the next cold front come through?Also what the chances this storm gets delayed even more and doesn't come thru until thurn or thurs night .We've heard everything so far with the models. It's not very likely..at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah its going to be a battle between the Op. ECMWF now and todays. I bet the Euro leans more northwest now though. I was looking at RGEM and NAM and the ECMWF during the 48 to 72 hours prior to the March 2009 and it looks like at 5H the Euro won, but on RH at 7H the RGEM won at 48 hours out. Oddly, the last run of ECMWF had the 5H stronger on this one than last, I didn't realize it though. March 2009 Jan 2011 I've seen comparisons to the march 1st, 2009 system but there were some differences that are crucial. First the 09 system was MUCH colder and closed off MUCH sooner. It closed off way back over the mid plains. That bowling ball upper low started off with 850s of -10c and still had -10c over ms. It traversed the southeast with 850s around -4 to -6c. 925 temps were as low as -6c as far as ms and in the -1 to -2 range over ga/carolinas. The track was also further south by about 50 to 75 miles vs what the nam/gfs are showing. On a side note, I do think The nam seems to have a much more realistic area of greatest forcing and precip. Gfs seems too far northwest imo. canadian of course takes a track very similar to the 09 system. Although it's warmer but I don't take much stock in it's thermal profiles. At the least would imply, to me anyway, an area of heaviest precip slightly further south than the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Any Mods on duty ?? How about you delete this post so no more Regular southeast folks come in and read it and get upset. I myself think it's been hashed enuff ! Pretty PLEASE Have you ever heard of the report function? Sometimes there isn't a mod on here 24/7 FYI, they don't read every post, and it's the only way to otherwise let any of us know. And as for the report function, Use it instead of disrupting the thread even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 guys i think you will see that the storm will trend south and put more folks into the snow eariler. my gut feeling, the trends will start south closer to the coast line and cross the florida panhandle up the east coast. Please provide some reasoning for these thoughts besides "gut feelings". Wishcasting is not forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Couple of quick thoughts for N. Ga. in particular. I think there is a fair chance that we could see a streak of precip run out front of the main system late tonight. Between 6z and 12 z wet bulbs are real close to a snow sounding. Will be interesting to see what radar and ruc looks like this evening. In addition the deformation band that looks as of this writing to be north of much of Georgia, if the 500 and 700 lows are really wrapped up, we could see banding even southwest and south of the said lows. Perhaps similar to the completely unexpected heavy now band that rocked the Hammond Louisiana area a couple of years back in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well at 36 on the Euro the trof is more positive than 0z at 48. Slightly more positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 fwiw, the euro is extremely similar to it's 0z run. Main difference is heavier precip over the nc mountains/northern foothills with the upper low. (which tracks across north ga/upstate to near rdu) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro still one of the more south models- too far north for almost all of GA except the northern border, but this run keeps the western 1/3 of NC in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The Euro cuts off the low around BHM then slowly strengthens it across n GA and then down to around 539 around RDU by 60 hours. It hits HKY to Lenoir Winston and Boone really hard with the strenthening deformation band. Barely misses the CLT area. Also the 7H axis looks to go from northern Miss. across Tn before really concentrating , similar to the NAM but a little north of there and sparing the Upstate and ne GA. From there it goes into much of Virginia, so to me it looks like north of 40 in NC has the best chance of a quick thumping, and again west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro still one of the more south models- too far north for almost all of GA except the northern border, but this run keeps the western 1/3 of NC in the game. I have to disagree somewhat. All of the models are coming into agreement I think with the track of the upper low. The differences between them are really small. Euro seems to fall right in the middle comparing it to the others. The gfs is the northern outlier while the canadian is the southern one. Euro splits the difference. Agrees very well with the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I've been trolling in the mid-atlantic. Midlo says that the ULL drops 1" of precip over Winston-Salem in 6 hours. Sounding like the nam and southernly trends from earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I've been trolling in the mid-atlantic. Midlo says that the ULL drops 1" of precip over Winston-Salem in 6 hours. Sounding like the nam and southernly trends from earlier runs. Well Winston is probably in the 0.75" range as Wilkesboro is in the 1.25" range and Boone is probably 0.75" too, but it's splitting hairs at that point. But it's all within 6 hours. If this run verifies I would have to think they would see several inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I've seen comparisons to the march 1st, 2009 system but there were some differences that are crucial. First the 09 system was MUCH colder and closed off MUCH sooner. It closed off way back over the mid plains. That bowling ball upper low started off with 850s of -10c and still had -10c over ms. It traversed the southeast with 850s around -4 to -6c. 925 temps were as low as -6c as far as ms and in the -1 to -2 range over ga/carolinas. The track was also further south by about 50 to 75 miles vs what the nam/gfs are showing. On a side note, I do think The nam seems to have a much more realistic area of greatest forcing and precip. Gfs seems too far northwest imo. canadian of course takes a track very similar to the 09 system. Although it's warmer but I don't take much stock in it's thermal profiles. At the least would imply, to me anyway, an area of heaviest precip slightly further south than the nam. Believe I know Iv'e been looking at all my old maps from that one and spotting the differences and similarities. In the end, its probably still going to end up the same for someone, just can't say where and thats the fun part of trying to figure out who gets nailed with the 7H deformation band with this one. I have little doubt that over 6" of very wet, tree crushing snow is coming for someone between northern Mississippi- Tenn-NC but where exactly is still unknown. I'm leaning heavily toward eastern Tn, and again in N. Miss, maybe N. Alabama but time of day isn't so good there, and again as the axis really tightens and enhances UVV as the sudden strengthening of th 5H is in the piedmont of NC that would favor western NC, probably near INT HKY AVL and Boone area, but always any little shift makes a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yeah the ull will have some very high snowfall rates whoever is lucky enough to get it on the euro and nam it looks like they hit nw nc from hky lenoir morganton winston if they are cold enough. boone gets hit hard as well nearly 1inch of qpf in 6 hrs thats tree snapping snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Also, this occurs from 18z Wed to 0z Thurs (3:00pm - 8:00pm). So people in this area will atleast get to watch it, instead of it coming in overnight and everyone being asleep. I hope this holds so the western part of NC get's to experience this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well Winston is probably in the 0.75" range as Wilkesboro is in the 1.25" range and Boone is probably 0.75" too, but it's splitting hairs at that point. But it's all within 6 hours. If this run verifies I would have to think they would see several inches of snow. The strengthening perfect track for you guys in nw NC when the surface low and 5H is in the process of rotating and strenghtening, very similar to what happened to me and Upstate 2009, just translated further north. So if you get those rates, then get ready for some real fluffy, quick accumulating snow. But its still rough to tell exactly which counties will get it, since theres no real strong concensus yet. We had the luxury in 2009 of having all the 48 hour models in a tight cluster with the defomation band, not so on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Since MBY is out of the running and I cannot take a road trip on this one I will be out of here for a bit doing "normal" stuff. Off for a 3 mil walk and then a movie. We will see what the early Feb system brings. Plus I will take the nice soaking rain. Good luck to those to my north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Also, this occurs from 18z Wed to 0z Thurs (3:00pm - 8:00pm). So people in this area will atleast get to watch it, instead of it coming in overnight and everyone being asleep. I hope this holds so the western part of NC get's to experience this. and if and this is a pretty big if because all of the spread but if the euro qpf is even close to accurate were talking 6-12 type event in just 6 hrs that could be terrible for rush hour traffic that would be some extremely impressive rates. probably near whiteout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1124 AM CST MON JAN 24 2011VALID 251200Z - 261200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MOST OF FL......SYNOPSIS...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT VORT MAX NOW MOVING THROUGH SRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO BASE OF MEAN SYNOPTIC TROUGH...REACHING THE NWRN GULF EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT EJECTS ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND SERN STATES OVERNIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE GULF WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. ...FL...WEAK SURFACE LOW ALREADY EVIDENT OVER THE WRN GULF SHOULD DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF IS IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING...AND FURTHER MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST AS TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SLY. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESISIS FORECAST OFF THE GA COAST LATE TUESDAY AS ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENTACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERTAKES THE GULF STREAM.STRENGTHENING S-SWLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS THROUGH SRN FL WITH LOW 60S MORE LIKELY FARTHER NORTH. LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO 500-1000J/KG OVER SRN FL AND BELOW 500 J/KG ACROSS NRN FL.STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL GULF WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL ADVANCE EWD...LIKELY REACHING FL BY TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASETO 40-50 KT OVER THE PENINSULA AS THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH APPROACHES...SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILLBE THE MAIN THREATS. WILL MAINTAIN 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DUE MAINLY TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THETHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So I am guessing the 12z EURO looks a little different for late week or maybe it's just not out that far yet. Hoping we go into a more "widespread" wintry pattern in the coming 6-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT is just ripping the GFS to shreds on wxrisk for this storm...and I couldn't agree more. I have no idea why the GFS gets the attention it does out past 3 days...you especially see it with some of the TV mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Boy looking at the 12z Euro that ULL means business once it gets going in the foothills. Would love it if it could track just a little south and east but I'm not holding out too much hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm just hoping this continues to slow down until after 6 or 7pm wed. I think that make a bit of difference on accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Boy looking at the 12z Euro that ULL means business once it gets going in the foothills. Would love it if it could track just a little south and east but I'm not holding out too much hope. yeah it and the NAM are really seeing something going on between 54 and 60 hours with the deformation band in western NC. Not sure but I think its related to the strengthening of the 5H as it goes from n. GA to near CLT to RDU and that pivot around the mountains somehow congeals and focuses the 7h moisture and omega there. Its hard to argue against that general location so we're still close enough to watch, but I'm focusing on that area as being hit hard now with a lot of qpf in a very short time. Meaning, intense rates. Hopefully the models can all cluster on atleast the axis of 7h and 850 like they did in the last big upper low that took a similar track, it would make this guessing game a little more narrowed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is really going to be close for the triad, especially W-S to I-77. The deformation band could cause heavy enough precip to overcome temps initially too warm, but the EXACT track of the upper low will be the determining factor and just a shift of 15-25 miles either direction will influence possible hundreds of thousands of folks. I don't think we will know for sure until middday tomorrow, in other words a nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 From the Charleston AFD: THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO FAVOR A CLASSIC LATE WINTER HIGH-SHEAR/LOW-CAPE SCENARIO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEING MAINLY CONFINED TO A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GREATEST SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...HOWEVER EVEN A SLIGHT DEVIATION OF THE LOW FARTHER INLAND WOULD BRING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES--SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG--ONSHORE. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW...BUT ARE CERTAINLY NON-ZERO. A BRIEF MENTION OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO TAKE UNCERTAINLY INTO ACCOUNT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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