Pilotwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 One thing that crossed my mind where ever it does snow, traveling may be worse than most storms. Reason is with the heavy rains still coming in the brine that has been left on the road will be wash away, and the DOT"S will not be able to put out the brine because of it also washing away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Te fat lady is getting ready to warble for GA,, SC. Charlotte, RDU as the GFS is very much like the GGEM. Congrats NE Tennessee, most of the NC mountains and maybe the far NW foothills of NC . Yep, It will be interesting to see if the EURO holds serve but I would not be surprised at all if it trends a little further north with the upper level low at 12Z. That being said hopefully we can at least get in on some decent rainfall totals and there is some continuing potential down the road with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You have me confused now phil, did you mean to say CLT for being on the edge or GSO? CLT is more on the edge than GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The GFS is similar to the GGEM and the last two runs of the Euro ensembles. Add that to the fact that the NAM almost never beats the GFS at the 48-54 hour time frame, my money is heavily on the GFS. Yeah its going to be a battle between the Op. ECMWF now and todays. I bet the Euro leans more northwest now though. I was looking at RGEM and NAM and the ECMWF during the 48 to 72 hours prior to the March 2009 and it looks like at 5H the Euro won, but on RH at 7H the RGEM won at 48 hours out. Oddly, the last run of ECMWF had the 5H stronger on this one than last, I didn't realize it though. March 2009 Jan 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Overall, yes the GFS is further north with the 500mb low than the nam, but its also stronger. This benefits TN especially, since the heavy precipitation will ramp up earlier the stronger the 500mb low is when it decides to go negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z UKIE at 48 hours -- 5h low SW of Atlanta -- but surface and 850 low over Huntsville, Ala. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hello everybody.I found this site while on Accuweather on sat.I believe i'll enjoy this site more than Accuweather. I've looked at this storm since last thurs .I'v e never saw one storm go through so much change.I 'm in the northern foothlills of N C.roughly 10 miles southwest of M tAiry. I know this is a loaded question but how's it looking for our area. I was really praying for one more good snow.Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Welcome to the board. Please read this. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/9664-posting-etiquette/ Thanks, Hello everybody.I found this site while on Accuweather on sat.I believe i'll enjoy this site more than Accuweather. I've looked at this storm since last thurs .I'v e never saw one storm go through so much change.I 'm in the northern foothlills of N C.roughly 10 miles southwest of M tAiry. I know this is a loaded question but how's it looking for our area. I was really praying for one more good snow.Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, it's going to vary based on the strength of the upper low. I tend to focus more on the track of the upper low vort max. With the clipper that hit RDU in early Dec, the heaviest precip was along and just north of the vort max track. With this current system, we've got a much stronger upper low, and that tends to setup the good precip farther north as the upper low tracks through. By the way, I'm disappointed you haven't added the GFS rule in your sig - i.e. that the GFS should be ignored in the mid and long range. Cool. That makes a lot of sense about the strength and track. LOL on the GFS thing. I think we would all be better off if we just never looked at that model, ever. By the time it's right and finally catches on, we've already been able to observe the output of better modeling and we already have a good handle on the track, moisture, and temperature fields. It's sad and frankly unbelievable how bad it is. I'm not sure the parallel version is much better than the old one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Cool. That makes a lot of sense about the strength and track. LOL on the GFS thing. I think we would all be better off if we just never looked at that model, ever. By the time it's right and finally catches on, we've already been able to observe the output of better modeling and we already have a good handle on the track, moisture, and temperature fields. It's sad and frankly unbelievable how bad it is. I'm not sure the parallel version is much better than the old one. Agree in the longer range, but in the 46-84 hour window the GFS is often better than the NAM for example. But that is for another topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM sounding for wednesday night is the first sounding I've seen on any model that show's snow here in hickory recently. It would probably drop a solid 3-5 inches across the foothills.Show's an isothermal layer after 6pm with the comma head coming through. Im not really surprised, it has been odd to me all along this feature would be rain. I don't ever remember a phased cutoff low with a comma head not having snow in the middle of January. Especially with 500mb heights around 540dm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, even in Shelby it was below freezing all the way down to the surface at 60 hours -- then about 35 at the surface. Figure I could get 5-1 accumulation out of that -- a slushy couple inches. Got optimistic when I saw the 12z UKie's 5h low position at 48 hours -- it's a bit faster than the NAM, but if you compare its position at 48 hours to the NAM's at 48, it's actually a bit south of the NAM. But then the 850 low and surface low are displaced further north of the 5h low on the Ukie than the NAM. The NAM sounding for wednesday night is the first sounding i've seen on any model that show's snow here in hickory recently. It would probably drop a solid 3-5 inches across the foothills.Show's an isothermal layer after 6pm with the comma head coming through. Im not really surprised, it has been odd tome all along this feature would be rain. I don't ever remember a phased cutoff low with a comma head not having snow in the middle of January. Especially with 500mb heights around 540dm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Idiot Question here but, is the NAM data good now after the issues from the other day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, even in Shelby it was below freezing all the way down to the surface at 60 hours -- then about 35 at the surface. Figure I could get 5-1 accumulation out of that -- a slushy couple inches. Got optimistic when I saw the 12z UKie's 5h low position at 48 hours -- it's a bit faster than the NAM, but if you compare its position at 48 hours to the NAM's at 48, it's actually a bit south of the NAM. But then the 850 low and surface low are displaced further north of the 5h low on the Ukie than the NAM. Going to be interesting to follow the trends. This still has a lot of potential over the foothills. It's all going to come down to how strong this trends with the phase/cutoff. We have seen nice trends overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Comparing 0z GGEM at 60 hours to the 12z at 48, pretty big shift south and slower 5h low was NW of Atlanta on 0z run, now SE of Birmingham. Surface low was just south of Murphy NC on 0z run, now just SE of Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 5h low on 0z run at 72 hours was over Richmond. On this run at 60 it's over Wilmington NC. Comparing 0z GGEM at 60 hours to the 12z at 48, pretty big shift south and slower 5h low was NW of Atlanta on 0z run, now SE of Birmingham. Surface low was just south of Murphy NC on 0z run, now just SE of Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yet, 12z run warmer than 0z run. Oh well, I tried. 5h low on 0z run at 72 hours was over Richmond. On this run at 60 it's over Wilmington NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 5h low on 0z run at 72 hours was over Richmond. On this run at 60 it's over Wilmington NC. Thanks for the updates...this certainly throws another wrench in the mix. The models just can't get a good handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There are Couple of us from up this way BIG FROSTY, POWERSTROKE, . You just have follow along with this one is very changeable. Right now NO ONE is out of it , because of the track of the Upper Low. . First we see rain then , we have to track the upper low. But this is a very dynamic set-up and someone on this board will be a big winner then we will have some big losers also. The board does not like MBY ( My Back Yard questions) . Because the entire site would shut down. In the Discussion section look for MAPS and this will give you a visual of what some are thinking. Several others will give you general ideas of what is unfolding on the models, soak it in! If you love weather and winter this is the place to be, you will learn more here than any other website out there, great posters and a lot of GREAT METS, that included PHIL882 even thought he does not have a red tag. There are several who don't have tags there are good also. Most of us were memebers of a place called EASTERNUSWX it shut down about 2 or 3 months ago, so alot of us have known each other for years, and we found our way to this place gradually. Have fun, and welcome aboard! Hello everybody.I found this site while on Accuweather on sat.I believe i'll enjoy this site more than Accuweather. I've looked at this storm since last thurs .I'v e never saw one storm go through so much change.I 'm in the northern foothlills of N C.roughly 10 miles southwest of M tAiry. I know this is a loaded question but how's it looking for our area. I was really praying for one more good snow.Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can anyone get the 54 hour 5H ukmet? I have all other 6 hour frames through 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thanks for the updates...this certainly throws another wrench in the mix. The models just can't get a good handle. The 12z models are converging though, we won't know until tomorrow where the 5h low is going to track. Still looks good for the foothills, winston, va/nc state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It appears the UKMET is north and west with its def. band snow as well. Not looking so good for western NC other than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can anyone get the 54 hour 5H ukmet? I have all other 6 hour frames through 60. I believe the UKMET only goes through 48 hours at 6 hour intervals on Plymouth and Raleigh's site... then it goes at 12 hours increments up to 72 hours. The GGEM is further south, which is encouraging to see, since it was the northern most outlier. It looks much similar to the GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I believe the UKMET only goes through 48 hours at 6 hour intervals on Plymouth and Raleigh's site... then it goes at 12 hours increments up to 72 hours. The GGEM is further south, which is encouraging to see, since it was the northern most outlier. It looks much similar to the GFS now. Wish it had more increments. The hour of interest is 54 here, but I see its further south a little than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM sounding for wednesday night is the first sounding I've seen on any model that show's snow here in hickory recently. It would probably drop a solid 3-5 inches across the foothills.Show's an isothermal layer after 6pm with the comma head coming through. Im not really surprised, it has been odd to me all along this feature would be rain. I don't ever remember a phased cutoff low with a comma head not having snow in the middle of January. Especially with 500mb heights around 540dm. Someone said you have to use some common sense when forecasting! This storm with the models doing some crazy things,that make no sense at all. This is where knowing how systems work and dynamics come into play. The models just are not catching on @ all. Maybe the changing PNA has something to do with I don't know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wish it had more increments. The hour of interest is 54 here, but I see its further south a little than GFS. I'm still waiting to see if the NAM and GFS keep trending northward. the UKMET and GGEM have been showing the SLP riding up the Appalachians for the last 24-48 hours, and if anything they have trended further south from those solutions before. The ECWMF has been a good middle ground for a while now, so it will be interesting to see if it trends north or south at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Good post as we head into the 12 euro here in a little while.. I'm still waiting to see if the NAM and GFS keep trending northward. the UKMET and GGEM have been showing the SLP riding up the Appalachians for the last 24-48 hours, and if anything they have trended further south from those solutions before. The ECWMF has been a good middle ground for a while now, so it will be interesting to see if it trends north or south at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Brad Panovich's new video is great. He describes everything anyone needs to know. http://wxbrad.blogspot.com/2011/01/winter-storm-will-bring-much-needed.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't see this SLP track being more than 50 miles off the coastline either way. I think we've cleared that up. The main player at this point is just how strong it is, when the real deepening begins with the surface low, and the timing. The models are trending back towards the SLP bombing out over SE Georgia. That would generally intensify the 850 low and increase the chance of dynamically driven snowfall to the northwest of it. At this point, I could see that band either being over western NC/S VA, or over eastern TN/southern KY. IMO this is going to be something you won't know until probably tomorrow when the consensus starts to form and the radar starts to take shape. The models generally have trouble with deformation axis type snows/comma heads this far out. A good rule is just to stick a point 100miles w to wnw of the 850 low and that's where the best dynamics will be.Also sometimes underneath a closed 700mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 guys i think you will see that the storm will trend south and put more folks into the snow eariler. my gut feeling, the trends will start south closer to the coast line and cross the florida panhandle up the east coast. I'm still waiting to see if the NAM and GFS keep trending northward. the UKMET and GGEM have been showing the SLP riding up the Appalachians for the last 24-48 hours, and if anything they have trended further south from those solutions before. The ECWMF has been a good middle ground for a while now, so it will be interesting to see if it trends north or south at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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