triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yep I've just been burned too many times when on the edge...usually these things leave us looking in at the good stuff, but I'll take my 2-4 and be happy if I can get it. Looks like Robert is in too good of a spot...by the way just north of Ocoenee looks to be the money spot right now. It's also kinda funny because I moved from Shelby this past year, and this could be the second time that Shelby get's more snow than up here. Congrats to Robert and all my friends in Shelby, because another hit looks a' comin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I know I said I was done posting, but I have to say this. I don't know what everyone is seeing, because the 12z NAM shows not even one flake from CLT to RDU per the 3 hour soundings! If anyone cares to prove me wrong, please proceed. True, but atleast we get some drought busting rain, I hope. I know NAM overdoes QPF but we are looking atleast 1" plus of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bnmdjm Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Soundings are correct 100% of the time two days out right? Why is the mets who ARE EXPERTS ON OUR REGION are exited but you aren't? Sorry I'll trust them over you any time. Ignorance is bliss my friend. Enjoy your experts deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ignorance is bliss my friend. Enjoy your experts deformation band. I will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Pegging down where an upper level low will track 2-3 days in advance is folly. Even if you only miss it by 50 miles, that's a HUGE difference in sensible weather. These upper level lows don't have an expansive area that will lay down snow. Usually the width of the band is around 50 miles wide. I can see how someone will get dumped on, but we really won't know until we see it as it's developing and spinning east/northeast. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowforme Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Even though I've just been here a few days I've been working hard trying to interpret the maps and from what I see it seems like it's just rain. Isn't it too warm for snow? What is everyone else seeing that I'm not? Obviously I still have a lot to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ignorance is bliss my friend. Enjoy your experts deformation band. Please stop putting down other members here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ignorance is bliss my friend. Enjoy your experts deformation band. It is kind of funny to me for you to be done only to come back here posting crap like this. I am sorry but I would have to agree with burger on this. You claim the NAM does not show this. The 3 hour soundings do not show this. I have one question since you are so sure of no snow and that is were there 3 hour soundings back in Jan 1998 or Feb 98 or Dec 97 etc. etc. You mean to tell me this cannot be wrong? Ignorance is bliss but I can bet there have been many suprises to affect a forecast of yours. Either way. You kind of have lost any respect you had from everyone yesterday but this is def. not the way to get it back. If someone disagrees with you thats fine you have to accept that not go after others just cause no one gives you the respect with the attitude you use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ignorance is bliss my friend. Enjoy your experts deformation band. If I get 4 inches of snow believe me I'll be enjoying the hell out of it and you will forever have to live with your epic bust on this board (if you do stay and I hope you do because RDU needs more mets on here)....if I don't get anything I've pretty much resigned myself to the possibility of getting nothing so no matter what I don't loose anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ignorance is bliss my friend. Enjoy your experts deformation band. well, why does NWS RAH keep mentioning the possibility of the band producing snow across the region? We all know it wont be easy, but it's worth tracking, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I know I said I was done posting, but I have to say this. I don't know what everyone is seeing, because the 12z NAM shows not even one flake from CLT to RDU per the 3 hour soundings! If anyone cares to prove me wrong, please proceed. Its close... it will likely depend on where the deformation band goes. Verbatim, the heaviest precip. stays north of Charlotte, so they might stay all rain. BUFKIT will probably clear this up better. In a line NW of Charlotte to KGSO though, there will defiantly be some dynamical cooling through very intense precip. rates just to the northwest of the 850mb low, so its likely those places will switch over to snow for a few inches. Raleigh is too far south because the deformation band will track from southwest to northeast, lifting with time since the 500mb low will be moving east northeast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I imagine we are not going to know the exact path until Tuesday night. Yeah, that's true. That little inverted bubble of less QPF in Wake Co. Is right over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwp Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I am actually looking forward to a nice dumping of rain around RDU myself...things have been getting a little too dry recently for my liking. It seems that I have missed a good bit around the boards-it looks like we have some "interesting" new mets that have joined here. As someone who has been in the field of numerical weather prediction and forecasting for years...I always enjoy watching the different approaches mets take on these boards. True, but atleast we get some drought busting rain, I hope. I know NAM overdoes QPF but we are looking atleast 1" plus of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Had a dynamic cooling event like this when I was in college at MSU. 8" in a few hours, then as you lose the precip rates, drizzle and 33-34 the next morning. What year was that Matthew? I remember an 8 inch storm when i was there (or had recently graduated). Must have been before your time though. This was circa 1990/91...i know because we played LSU that Saturday and Shaq was playing. Dogs won btw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What year was that Matthew? I remember an 8 inch storm when i was there (or had recently graduated). Must have been before your time though. This was circa 1990/91...i know because we played LSU that Saturday and Shaq was playing. Dogs won btw... Excellent! I forgot you were a Bulldog! I want to say January 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 One thing I am curious about: will the best precip be along the path of the ULL, or just to the north of it? Matthew indicated in is blog that along the track of the low, that's where the most likely snow would be. But the Nam's QPF fields show the most intense precip to the north of the track. Perhaps I misread his meaning. And on another note, let's drop all the bickering and talk about the weather. Everyone feel free to stay and post or leave the board. It doesn't matter which, but if you're gonna stay, let's talk weather and do it positively and constructively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 wow 1009 already huh? thats stronger than the NAM has it at hr 24!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcld76 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ignorance is bliss my friend. Enjoy your experts deformation band. got to love a guy who crosses his arms and stomps his feet. pouts. then declares he will never post again. only to post again. scram weirdo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 got to love a guy who crosses his arms and stomps his feet. pouts. then declares he will never post again. only to post again. scram weirdo. See, really I think you should have just left it alone, and not post anything. Because posting something, just gives her even the more reason to post again.. Though I am thinking the same thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 One thing I am curious about: will the best precip be along the path of the ULL, or just to the north of it? Matthew indicated in is blog that along the track of the low, that's where the most likely snow would be. But the Nam's QPF fields show the most intense precip to the north of the track. Perhaps I misread his meaning. To me, the 90%+ RH on the 700mb map is a good indicator as to where the GOOD precip will be. The stronger the upper low, the more pronounced the dry slot becomes along and south of the track of the upper low vort max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 See, really I think you should have just left it alone, and not post anything. Because posting something, just gives her even the more reason to post again.. Though I am thinking the same thing.. Can we all try to get along??This is starting to be old news and were past that... Please play well with others and get along......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ignorance is bliss my friend. Enjoy your experts deformation band. Exactly what IS your forecast? I've heard what it can't possibly be but not what it's going to be? Just curious. I can understand meteorologist disagreeing about what going to happen, even the models are still in disagreement, but you do your best to make this a personal thing and I don't understand why. Every met I've seen up here will go to great lengths to explain the rational behind their predictions. Even when they have disagreements it never becomes personal and that's what's great about this board. Civil adult discussions about the weather. But when you come up here, it's the tone of your post that seem to cause problems. You start bashing any discussion that doesn't agree with what you think. Everyone is wrong except you and that's certainly not the case, hasn't been and never will be. Where were you all winter when these guys were getting it right? Now you show up for one storm and have all the answers, even though none of the models and few of the mets can agree on a solid forecast. There's way too much up in the air to berate someone for their forecast no matter how far fetched YOU think it is. These guys have credentials too and are more than willing to lay them on the line with their predictions. I haven't heard any predictions from you really, just negative comments about the ones others make. Just curious and I don't mean to be disrespectful, but what is your age? What I'm hearing from you tells me that your not very old. I don't know if it's a lack of maturity or what but your comments seem to lean that way. Step back and take a deep breath before you post, think about what you can add to the discussion, not what you can bash or take away from it. It would go a long way toward others accepting you and your opinions on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Exactly what IS your forecast? I've heard what it can't possibly be but not what it's going to be? Just curious. I can understand meteorologist disagreeing about what going to happen, even the models are still in disagreement, but you do your best to make this a personal thing and I don't understand why. Every met I've seen up here will go to great lengths to explain the rational behind their predictions. Even when they have disagreements it never becomes personal and that's what's great about this board. Civil adult discussions about the weather. But when you come up here, it's the tone of your post that seem to cause problems. You start bashing any discussion that doesn't agree with what you think. Everyone is wrong except you and that's certainly not the case, hasn't been and never will be. Where were you all winter when these guys were getting it right? Now you show up for one storm and have all the answers, even though none of the models and few of the mets can agree on a solid forecast. There's way too much up in the air to berate someone for their forecast no matter how far fetched YOU think it is. These guys have credentials too and are more than willing to lay them on the line with their predictions. I haven't heard any predictions from you really, just negative comments about the ones others make. Just curious and I don't mean to be disrespectful, but what is your age? What I'm hearing from you tells me that your not very old. I don't know if it's a lack of maturity or what but your comments seem to lean that way. Step back and take a deep breath before you post, think about what you can add to the discussion, not what you can bash or take away from it. It would go a long way toward others accepting you and your opinions on this board. Well Said Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 As I see it, the best chance for a good dump of snow will be a little north and south of a line from N MS through C TN to SW VA. 12/11/08 is an example of a strong upper low producing snowfall while moving through a region of marginal boundary layer temperatures... Snow Totals: Lawrence County, MS: 9.0" Amite, LA: 8.0" Hammond, LA: 6.0" Beaumont, TX: 4.0" New Orleans, LA: 1-2” Checkout the +10C degree line at 850mb in central Alabama with heavy snow flying in southern Louisiana... Here's a photo from Hammond, LA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Saw this on the RAH AFD SIDE NOTE: THIS IS THE 11TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE INFAMOUS 'BLIZZARD OF 2000'...WHICH OCCURRED ON MON/TUE JANUARY 24-25 2000. 20.3" OF SNOW FELL AT RDU IN LITTLE MORE THAN 14 HOURS AS THE LOW BOMBED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 BUFKIT just came out... I HAVE GOOSEBUMPS!!!! Honestly, this has to be overdone... I simpily don't see how KAVL getting 13.9" of snow in 6 hours, the dynamics have to be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Great Weather Impact Briefing Video from NWS BMX: Weather Briefing Video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SV snow maps have most of the upstate of and most of central and western NC in 4-8...grain of salt of course. Including our BY? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Including our BY? Thanks! Well sharp cut off towards MBY near Pineville but your BY is in good shape it looks like. This is gonna be a now casting thing for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Forgive me for butting in… Why are certain behaviors being tolerated in this thread? I see this place as the scientific string of data/information and discussion with an ‘expectation’ of restricting one’s personal emotional behavior/rant/whining, or at least keeping it to a minimum. There’s a banter thread for this sort. The other subject-matter posters shouldn't have to spend too much time explaining the decorum here. I see their volunteered and valued time better spent. Maybe the behavioral-learning can be accomplished in the banter/etiquette thread. Meanwhile back at the weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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