phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Phil, the 6z nam soundings came in much warmer for Franklin than before. It now shows a big warm nose from 850 to 700. Before it was below freezing above 850 and only about 33 to 34 at 850. Huge jump. Well yea... the nam was out in la la land with regards to the 850mb low and the surface low at 00z. There was no way in the world that was going to verify. The 06z nam is much more realistic with the 500mb features and thus, a better representation of the 850mb low and stronger WAA. Unless we see a significant trend southward with the 500mb low, the mountains below 3,500 feet are not going to stay all snow for the entire event. That trend southward could still occur, but I wouldn't hang my hat on it. Instead, most of our snowfall will likely come from the deformation band that will rapid intensify overhead as the 500mb low goes negative tilt. For this we want to see a stronger 500mb low thats placed just south of our location so we end up with deep layer backing flow into the mountains. This will set up the deformation band right overhead and allow us to have a good 3-6 hour period of heavy snow Wednesday Afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Phil is that deformation band starting in ne ga through the upstate with a pocket of cold air being dragged down...i'm i reading that right? Yep... this thing should actually get cranking in Alabama, but will actually be intensifying as it moves eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I encourage everyone in the Lee of the Appalachians to closely follow where the 850mb low streamlines are oriented. If you are just slightly north or east of this feature... you likely will experience crashing 850mb temperatures and quickly switch over to heavy snow. The 06z NAM is actually further south with this feature, meaning a lot of those subzero 850mb temps the gfs is showing would likely be shifted about 25-50 miles southeastward. phil (or any other of our more knowledgeable folks), as i look at the center of the circulation on this map, which appears to be located just on the lee side of the Apps in NC, i have to ask: should that placement and circulation direction verify, will that create upslope on the lee side, and therefore enhance any precip rates for the escarpment, for instance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 @24 central LA has some 2.00+ returns!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 southern Ark, n La, and w. Miss. are getting hit pretty hard on the west side of the 850 low and good dynamic cooling at 33 to 36 hours. Its going to be interesting following that 700 band as it marches northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 850's crashing @ 30HR NAM. Intense UVV's over southern AR/N LA/W MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow! at 30 850 temps drop below freezing in the Eastern half of Tenn, And extreme western NC near the Tenn border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Once again, the NAM is trying to define two separate areas of low pressure. You would think there would be one area of consolidated low pressure. With it showing that, might mess with the specifics of the run for the H5 low. Closes off at 42..................nice hit for northern MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Huge deformation band setting up back to our west. Some folks are gonna get rocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 New discussion and video up.... I get the frustration and disappointment from some, although I don't know that anybody ever said "it is going to snow in X or Y location" with this system. Myself, as well as the others mets and forecasters I saw on the board, kept giving potential and possibilities. At any rate, the upper air low on the back side of this system just screams that it will put down a period of heavy wet snow in spots somewhere across the region.....again, see the discussion on the blog. Another great blog Matt,I look forward to reading your blog every morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It is much more defined on the 12 run now.. Huge deformation band setting up back to our west. Some folks are gonna get rocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 @ 45 .5-.75' returns in northern MiSS and SE TENN This would be after the 850 crash.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like that ULL might be to far west of us this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 northern Mississippi is going to get dumped on in a big way if the QfP on the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 phil (or any other of our more knowledgeable folks), as i look at the center of the circulation on this map, which appears to be located just on the lee side of the Apps in NC, i have to ask: should that placement and circulation direction verify, will that create upslope on the lee side, and therefore enhance any precip rates for the escarpment, for instance? I wouldn't look at the 850mb level for moisture in this example, because we will have a strong 700-500mb low going overhead just to the west of the 850mb low. The southerly flow out ahead of the features aloft will be what allows the lift and precipitation to occur. If the 500mb low becomes defined enough, we might also see a feature known as a trowal (trough of warm air aloft). This works in much the same way as isentropic lift, as the flow at a certain isentrope (300K for example) will lift as parcels travel from the high pressure to the east, and lower pressure to the west. GSP has a great discussion of this feature in the March 1-2 2009 case study... here is a nice Satellite image describing the features. http://www.erh.noaa....2MarchSnow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 northern Mississippi is going to get dumped on in a big way if the QfP on the NAM is right. Wow a nice band for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Another great blog Matt,I look forward to reading your blog every morning... Thanks! I always enjoy watching these ULLs and the dynamic cooling snow they can produce. Always fun. N MS is the winner on the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see this run from northern MS through central TN and into eastern KY or western VA. Sure looks plausible to me from looking at this run of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thanks! I always enjoy watching these ULLs and the dynamic cooling snow they can produce. Always fun. N MS is the winner on the 12z NAM. Indeed, great blog as usual and yes NMiss gets .75-1.0" on this run. Can it hold together long enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Indeed, great blog as usual and yes NMiss gets .75-1.0" on this run. Can it hold together long enough Had a dynamic cooling event like this when I was in college at MSU. 8" in a few hours, then as you lose the precip rates, drizzle and 33-34 the next morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 @57 - A nice, heavy deformation band setting up over NW Georgia, SW NC, its being the freezing line with it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Roberts house is getting pounded at hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like you NE GA and extreme SW NC guys will like hour 57 precip. Edit....hour 60, looking nice for parts of the northern Upstate and western NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 And there you go ne GA, western SC, and sw NC at 60....................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 @60 SW NC is getting it hard...come on baby move east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM is doing exactly what I wanted to see.. keeps strengthening the 500mb low and taking it south of our region... perfect setup for heavy snow across the mountains and foothills of NC. Yes we start out as rain, but this makes up for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like that ULL might be to far west of us this run. Yikes. the 7H spin and UVV comma head is rotating right into n. Ga, Wstrn SC and NC as the 850s drop, right on cue with what Phil was talking about. Lots of qpf in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 @57 - A nice, heavy deformation band setting up over NW Georgia, SW NC, its being the freezing line with it.. do you have a map for this i could see? just want to find out how close it shows this band getting to atl. thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 do you have a map for this i could see? just want to find out how close it shows this band getting to atl. thanks... I can't post it, because I use AccuPro. But I can tell you that ATL would be getting light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Didn't see anything about it earlier in the thread, so... Charleston has mentioned a small chance of "isolated thunderstorms" in the HWO: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLETUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS...HOWEVER THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES IF THE LOW TRACKS EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND. THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. First severe of the season, perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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