BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NWS has just about give up hope for snow here now, What a suprise. Every new package they take more snow out of the forecast, So I'm really not looking for a single flake. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm in Greenville, SC this morning and was very surprised to wake up and see a dusting on the ground with a few stray flurries falling... what a nice surprise here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Light snow here. Just started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NWS has just about give up hope for snow here now, What a suprise. Every new package they take more snow out of the forecast, So I'm really not looking for a single flake. . If today's 12Z runs come in like I think they will, I'll be adjusting my track of the 7H moisture a little further north, and east. going from n. Ala/Etn, and mostly nw NC /w VA. , so for your area the best chance for the snow would be late Wednesday in a 6 hour window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 6:PM Tuesday...Now watch the dynamic cooling process develop on the NW side of the system in following frames of 6z Nam: Midnight Tuesday Night...Notice in NW Miss: 6:AM Wednesday Morning...Notice moving in to Alabama: Noon Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 And here is your radar sim looking at the deform band forming causing the cooling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Morning All, As with most in the area we have a healthy dusting here in Weaverville. This sure doesn't make up for the upcoming event. One of the most frustrating in the last two years here in the Asheville area. Still time for some changes and we still will see some snow so I guess all is not lost. All in all it has been a tough 48 hrs but a great learning experience! Looks like the guys at higher elevation will do quite well with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 From Spann this morning: TOMORROW NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: Here comes the hard part. Models are actually in very good agreement with a surface low lifting northeast of out of the Gulf, moving up toward Savannah and Cape Hatteras. At the same time, a cold core upper low will move right on top of us, presenting the classic forecast dilemma. Some notes on this…. *Classic model output will show only rain for North-Central Alabama due to relatively warm air in the lowest 5,000 feet of the atmosphere. *But, we have been burned by “classic model output” in this kind of situation many times over the years. *Classic example… December 1997, when MOS products suggested rain and a high in the low 50s for places like Jackson and Meridian, MS, and Demopolis, AL. A cold core came along and brought up 8 inches of snow in this region with temperatures peaking in the mid 30s, almost 15 degrees below forecast levels. *Temperatures at 500 mb (about 18,000-20,000 feet up) are forecast to drop to near -25 degrees © over Birmingham by daybreak Wednesday. Dynamic cooling associated with the upper low, no doubt, will bring colder air down from above. Much like December 1997. *Long time readers have heard us say… “cold core upper low, weatherman’s woe”. Bottom line is that there is little skill in this kind of setup, and unfortunately I do not believe we have enough skill to produce a snow accumulation potential graphic this morning (you know, the ones with the nice straight red lines that brings great weeping and gnashing of teeth). More than likely, I will draw one up this afternoon, but I am not comfortable doing it this morning. *This setup can produce more snow that you think. Somebody over North Alabama could wind up with 5 inches or more, with nothing but rain for areas away from the upper low track. *If we do see snow, the greatest likelihood of this will be from about 3:00 a.m. until 9:00 a.m. Wednesday. *There is no Arctic air moving in following this system, so if we do see snow, it won’t stay on the ground for a week (like the last winter storm here) BOTTOM LINE: We will mention rain tomorrow, with some potential for the rain to change to snow late tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. No accumulation forecast yet, and no placement forecast yet. Let’s look at the 12Z model runs for better clarity in the upper low strength and position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I also want to mention that the 06z GFS is still quite interesting. It wraps up the 850mb low quite a bit at the end, dropping quite a bit of accumulating snowfall across most of WNC including the foothills all the way to Greensboro, NC. A nice slug of +.5" of precip. is nothing to slouch at! Considering that the ECWMF is even more wrapped up than the gfs... both models are likely advertising the chance of at least moderate snowfall accumulations outside of the mountains of NC. Don't fall asleep at the threat yet... just a slight shift southward and folks like Charlotte, NC and Greenville, SC are back in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I encourage everyone in the Lee of the Appalachians to closely follow where the 850mb low streamlines are oriented. If you are just slightly north or east of this feature... you likely will experience crashing 850mb temperatures and quickly switch over to heavy snow. The 06z NAM is actually further south with this feature, meaning a lot of those subzero 850mb temps the gfs is showing would likely be shifted about 25-50 miles southeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM is also showing this I also want to mention that the 06z GFS is still quite interesting. It wraps up the 850mb low quite a bit at the end, dropping quite a bit of accumulating snowfall across most of WNC including the foothills all the way to Greensboro, NC. A nice slug of +.5" of precip. is nothing to slouch at! Considering that the ECWMF is even more wrapped up than the gfs... both models are likely advertising the chance of at least moderate snowfall accumulations outside of the mountains of NC. Don't fall asleep at the threat yet... just a slight shift southward and folks like Charlotte, NC and Greenville, SC are back in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Uhhh, It's SNOWING outside right now!!! Dusting on the ground!!! Same here. Just took the dogs out and it snowed, dusting on the ground...everything is white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 New discussion and video up.... I get the frustration and disappointment from some, although I don't know that anybody ever said "it is going to snow in X or Y location" with this system. Myself, as well as the others mets and forecasters I saw on the board, kept giving potential and possibilities. At any rate, the upper air low on the back side of this system just screams that it will put down a period of heavy wet snow in spots somewhere across the region.....again, see the discussion on the blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Moderate snow Ground is white Union, sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM is also showing this Yep... and while I still think the nam is still catching up at the surface, it has very similar 500mb features to the rest of the guidance now. I took a look at BUFKIT data, and its actually substantially colder initially aloft over the NC mountains that the isobaric maps would indicate. Chalk it up to adiabatic cooling lift rising over the mountains that could allow even a period of snow Tuesday night in the mountain valleys before a changeover to rain. (KAVL) Here are some numbers for select locations: KBRA - 2.6" KAVL - 6.4" (3.4" falls tuesday night... changes over to rain at 4am... changes back over to snow at 4pm... another 3.0" falls) KCLT - 1.9" KHKY - Actually has no snow because boundary layer does not cool off enough... which I don't buy since KCLT was able to change over. Prob around 3" here as well if you don't account for the boundary layer warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 New discussion and video up.... I get the frustration and disappointment from some, although I don't know that anybody ever said "it is going to snow in X or Y location" with this system. Myself, as well as the others mets and forecasters I saw on the board, kept giving potential and possibilities. At any rate, the upper air low on the back side of this system just screams that it will put down a period of heavy wet snow in spots somewhere across the region.....again, see the discussion on the blog. Yep getting all worked up is a little silly, the possibility is there and to me at least it's been pretty obvious it's a "wait and see" type event. I'm a little pessimistic about the chances in CLT but who knows? Considering the models being all over the place that chance is still there and like I've said I'll always take my chances in the middle of Jan with border line temps. Here are some numbers for select locations: KBRA - 2.6" KAVL - 6.4" (3.4" falls tuesday night... changes over to rain at 4am... changes back over to snow at 4pm... another 3.0" falls) KCLT - 1.9" KHKY - Actually has no snow because boundary layer does not cool off enough... which I don't buy since KCLT was able to change over. Prob around 3" here as well if you don't account for the boundary layer warmth. Thanks for the info! Crazy that CLT would get close to 2 inches verbatim and HKY gets nada..could it be because there is just more intense moisture cooling the column here as opposed to HKY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thanks for the info! Crazy that CLT would get close to 2 inches verbatim and HKY gets nada..could it be because there is just more intense moisture cooling the column here as opposed to HKY? Well a look at the individual soundings show that there is a three hour window in KCLT that gets around .3" precip. in a three hour period, in which about half of that falls in 1 hour. In KHKY we see a lighter precipitation rate, although it also approaches .1" per hour. In the end, I think it just highlights that you really need to be under the heaviest rates before you get some sort of changeover on the backside... and that could still occur in my opinion anywhere from KGSP to KGSO. Speaking of which, I didn't mention this before int the last post, but KGSO GETS ABSOLUTELY PLASTERED on the 06z NAM.... they have a three hour period of greater than 2" per hour rates all snow. The end with a whopping 9.3" I think this highlights what is still on the table as this system rapidly intensifies on the lee side of the Appalachians. It might be overdone, but the gfs is advertising similar rates, if not heavier on the backside of this 850mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yep... and while I still think the nam is still catching up at the surface, it has very similar 500mb features to the rest of the guidance now. I took a look at BUFKIT data, and its actually substantially colder initially aloft over the NC mountains that the isobaric maps would indicate. Chalk it up to adiabatic cooling lift rising over the mountains that could allow even a period of snow Tuesday night in the mountain valleys before a changeover to rain. (KAVL) Here are some numbers for select locations: KBRA - 2.6" KAVL - 6.4" (3.4" falls tuesday night... changes over to rain at 4am... changes back over to snow at 4pm... another 3.0" falls) KCLT - 1.9" KHKY - Actually has no snow because boundary layer does not cool off enough... which I don't buy since KCLT was able to change over. Prob around 3" here as well if you don't account for the boundary layer warmth. Ok, you peaked my curiosity. The 6z nam spits out 6.4 inches of snow in 2 HOURS for Greensboro per the BUFKIT soundings. I do believe that someone will see some back end snow and it will be heavy enough to accumulate. It looks like it will be 2 more days before we see exactly who it will be. I would love to see 3 inch an hour rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ok, you peaked my curiosity. The 6z nam spits out 6.4 inches of snow in 2 HOURS for Greensboro per the BUFKIT soundings. I do believe that someone will see some back end snow and it will be heavy enough to accumulate. It looks like it will be 2 more days before we see exactly who it will be. I would love to see 3 inch an hour rates! Oh, I forgot to mention that the snow comes after 1.26 inches of RAIN! 2.18 inches of total QPF! WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well a look at the individual soundings show that there is a three hour window in KCLT that gets around .3" precip. in a three hour period, in which about half of that falls in 1 hour. In KHKY we see a lighter precipitation rate, although it also approaches .1" per hour. In the end, I think it just highlights that you really need to be under the heaviest rates before you get some sort of changeover on the backside... and that could still occur in my opinion anywhere from KGSP to KGSO. Speaking of which, I didn't mention this before int the last post, but KGSO GETS ABSOLUTELY PLASTERED on the 06z NAM.... they have a three hour period of greater than 2" per hour rates all snow. The end with a whopping 9.3" I think this highlights what is still on the table as this system rapidly intensifies on the lee side of the Appalachians. It might be overdone, but the gfs is advertising similar rates, if not heavier on the backside of this 850mb low. Just insane how someone could cash in on one of the most intense snows of their life for a few hours. I feel bad for you guys who have to do this for a living . This makes the GFS that much more intriguing but I said a few days ago for someone this storm is going to be an immense heartbreak as they get no snow and just 30 miles one direction someone gets a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 New discussion and video up.... I get the frustration and disappointment from some, although I don't know that anybody ever said "it is going to snow in X or Y location" with this system. Myself, as well as the others mets and forecasters I saw on the board, kept giving potential and possibilities. At any rate, the upper air low on the back side of this system just screams that it will put down a period of heavy wet snow in spots somewhere across the region.....again, see the discussion on the blog. Great discussion... I hope you don't mind if I took a screen capture of when you were describing the Euro model... because it shows a very similar setup with the deformation band like the GFS and NAM at this point. I compleatly agree with your thoughts, as I think there will be somebody... could be the mountains through the piedmont of NC that will end up with warning criteria snowfall from the band that sets up on the back of the 850mb low. Ok, you peaked my curiosity. The 6z nam spits out 6.4 inches of snow in 2 HOURS for Greensboro per the BUFKIT soundings. I do believe that someone will see some back end snow and it will be heavy enough to accumulate. It looks like it will be 2 more days before we see exactly who it will be. I would love to see 3 inch an hour rates! Yea the NAM perfectly highlights my concern. People have written this event off, but its obvious that if you end up just on the northwest side of the 850mb low, you have a 3 hour window of perhaps heavy snow. Even the ECWMF (which is more amplified and thus warmer initially) has the deformation band come through NC dropping some snow in the lee of the Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You give me that look on Wednesday and I like KTRI's chances very much. Someone would get a tree snapping 4-8 inches quickly (over 2-3 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Great discussion... I hope you don't mind if I took a screen capture of when you were describing the Euro model... because it shows a very similar setup with the deformation band like the GFS and NAM at this point. I compleatly agree with your thoughts, as I think there will be somebody... could be the mountains through the piedmont of NC that will end up with warning criteria snowfall from the band that sets up on the back of the 850mb low. Yea the NAM perfectly highlights my concern. People have written this event off, but its obvious that if you end up just on the east side of the 850mb low, you have a 3 hour window of perhaps heavy snow. Even the ECWMF (which is more amplified and thus warmer initially) has the deformation band come through NC dropping some snow in the lee of the Appalachians. You mean nw side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You mean nw side? yes... thanks. Its still early for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Great discussion... I hope you don't mind if I took a screen capture of when you were describing the Euro model... because it shows a very similar setup with the deformation band like the GFS and NAM at this point. I compleatly agree with your thoughts, as I think there will be somebody... could be the mountains through the piedmont of NC that will end up with warning criteria snowfall from the band that sets up on the back of the 850mb low. Yea the NAM perfectly highlights my concern. People have written this event off, but its obvious that if you end up just on the northwest side of the 850mb low, you have a 3 hour window of perhaps heavy snow. Even the ECWMF (which is more amplified and thus warmer initially) has the deformation band come through NC dropping some snow in the lee of the Appalachians. Phil is that deformation band starting in ne ga through the upstate with a pocket of cold air being dragged down...i'm i reading that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Phil, the 6z nam soundings came in much warmer for Franklin than before. It now shows a big warm nose from 850 to 700. Before it was below freezing above 850 and only about 33 to 34 at 850. Huge jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just insane how someone could cash in on one of the most intense snows of their life for a few hours. I feel bad for you guys who have to do this for a living . This makes the GFS that much more intriguing but I said a few days ago for someone this storm is going to be an immense heartbreak as they get no snow and just 30 miles one direction someone gets a ton. Burger, You just roll with the punches. Then you wait for the next event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Burger, You just roll with the punches. Then you wait for the next event... Oh yeah, just happy I've got to KOs this year and thankfully no real losses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Oh yeah, just happy I've got to KOs this year and thankfully no real losses. We keep the chin up and move forward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Rolling onto the 12NAM and at 12 looks stronger in TX and a tad west of the 06 run at the same hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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