Powerball Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well the NAM finally got a clue with this clipper as of the 12z run. I suspect the SREF will soon get a clue too. I'm calling for a high end nickel & dime event in Detroit (3-5"). I want a daytime event so I can actually see the snow fall, but I also want a nighttime event so the snow can accumulate efficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well the NAM finally got a clue with this clipper as of the 12z run. I suspect the SREF will soon get a clue too. I'm calling for a high end nickel & dime event in Detroit (3-5"). I want a daytime event so I can actually see the snow fal, but I also want a nighttime event so the snow can accumulate efficiently. best case sceanario it starts at 2AM ends around 2PM. Heaviest from 5AM-10AM would be the best scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 LOT is calling for 1-2" of snow for tomorrow... What are the odds of a storm of at least 6" affecting this region at this point in the winter? I am talking about a general 6" "spread the wealth" kind of thing dropping snow through IA, S MN, C and N IL, C and S WI, a N IN and MI? Just asking..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 LOT is calling for 1-2" of snow for tomorrow... What are the odds of a storm of at least 6" affecting this region at this point in the winter? I am talking about a general 6" "spread the wealth" kind of thing dropping snow through IA, S MN, C and N IL, C and S WI, a N IN and MI? Just asking..... http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAM2395.1 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442%282002%29015%3C1765%3 ACOBITC%3E2.0.CO%3B2 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008MWR2324.1?journalCode=mwre sorry for the long post but its some good data, this is only for Chicago though. 1884 thru 2010 = 127 Years Years Having No 6" or Greater Daily Snowfalls 1884 1946 1887 1947 1888 1948 1889 1949 1890 1950 1891 1952 1892 1953 1898 1955 1899 1957 1902 1958 1905 1966 1906 1968 1909 1974 1910 1976 1912 1980 1913 1983 1915 1984 1916 1985 1917 1986 1919 1988 1921 1989 1922 1991 1923 1993 1924 1995 1925 1996 1927 2001 1935 2003 1936 2004 1937 2006 1940 2008 1942 1943 1945 Years Having One 6" or Greater Daily Snowfalls 1886 1962 1893 1963 1897 1965 1900 1969 1901 1971 1904 1972 1911 1973 1914 1979 1920 1981 1926 1990 1928 1992 1931 1994 1932 1997 1933 1998 1938 1999 1939 2005 1941 2007 1944 2009 1956 2010 (so far) 1959 Years Having Two 6" or Greater Daily Snowfalls 1894 1954 1895 1960 1896 1961 1903 1964 1907 1970 1908 1975 1918 1977 1930 1982 1934 2002 1951 Years Having Three 6" or Greater Daily Snowfalls 1885 1987 1929 2000 1967 Years Having Four 6" or Greater Daily Snowfalls None Years Having Five 6" or Greater Daily Snowfalls 1978 The Data Below is Shown by Calendar Date (Jan thru Dec) Dates & Amounts of 6" or Greater Daily Snowfalls 1885 1/16: 6.4" 2/9: 8.9" 12/13: 6.0" 1886 1/20: 8.0" 1893 2/17: 8.5" 1894 2/12: 7.9" 12/27: 10.1" 1895 2/6: 9.1" 11/26: 7.0" 1896 2/3: 11.0" 2/12: 7.0" 1897 3/23: 7.0" 1900 2/28: 11.3" 1901 2/3: 10.8" 1903 2/3: 7.0" 12/12: 11.0" 1904 3/14: 8.4" 1907 2/5: 7.0" 12/14: 8.1" 1908 1/12: 8.1" 2/18: 11.5" 1911 2/5: 6.9" 1914 1/31: 9.5" 1918 1/6: 14.4" 12/24: 7.1" 1920 4/4: 6.4" 1926 3/30: 7.8" 1928 2/17: 7.1" 1929 1/14: 6.3" 12/18: 6.7" 12/19: 8.0" 1930 1/9: 6.1" 3/25: 13.6" 1931 3/7: 10.9" 1932 3/21: 7.8" 1933 2/7: 8.6" 1934 3/26: 6.6" 12/10: 10.9" 1938 4/6: 9.0" 1939 1/30: 14.9" 1941 1/26: 7.4" 1944 12/10: 9.0" 1951 11/6: 8.0" 12/14: 10.0" 1954 3/2: 11.5" 3/29: 7.7" 1956 2/11: 8.3" 1959 12/23: 7.2" 1960 3/16: 6.0" 12/20: 11.0" 1961 2/3: 6.3" 12/23 10.2" 1962 1/6: 6.3" 1963 1/19: 8.8" 1964 3/20: 6.0" 3/29: 7.1" 1965 2/24: 6.5" 1967 1/26: 16.4" 1/27: 6.6" 2/5: 6.7" 1969 12/23: 9.6" 1970 3/26: 8.9" 4/1: 8.2" 1971 1/3: 7.1" 1972 3/29: 6.5" 1973 12/19: 8.3" 1975 4/2: 9.4" 11/26: 7.5" 1977 1/9: 6.8" 12/8: 6.9" 1978 1/26: 8.1" 2/6: 9.3" 12/1: 7.8" 12/7: 6.9" 12/31: 7.6" 1979 1/13: 16.5" 1981 2/10: 9.7" 1982 3/4: 8.5" 4/5: 9.4" 1987 1/9: 6.7" 12/15: 8.0" 12/28: 8.0" 1990 2/14: 8.3" 1992 3/21: 8.5" 1994 2/25: 6.7" 1997 2/16: 6.0" 1998 3/9: 6.5" 1999 1/2: 18.6" 2000 2/18: 11.1" 12/11: 9.5" 12/13: 6.0" 2002 1/31: 7.2" 3/2: 7.1" 2005 1/5: 6.2" 1/22: 6.2" 12/8: 6.7" 2007 2/13: 8.8" 2009 1/10: 8.4 2010 2/9: 12.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 would be happy with 1-2" out of this and then to track the possible big one after.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 With every forecast update for this area, they raise the temps for Thurs/Fri. We were at 29 just the other day, we are now progged for 34 on Thursday and 35 (I have heard highs of 37 already from some outlets) on Friday... Precip chances however, seem to be slim for both days only a 20% chance of snow You worry too damn much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You worry too damn much. and watches Jim Ramsey too much lol Its either Caplan or Skilling for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 and watches Jim Ramsey too much lol Its either Caplan or Skilling for me. I've pretty much stopped watching TV weather all together. Americanwx forums for me. Anyways, looks like i'm going to get burried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I've pretty much stopped watching TV weather all together. Americanwx forums for me. Anyways, looks like i'm going to get burried. I haven't watched much either lately, Skilling was on our tv last night but I was upstairs on here lol and usually I will just talk to Caplan on what he is thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You worry too damn much. I'm worried too. We are very much nearing the time where sun angle will prevent daytime accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anyone care to share the 12z euro totals for the second clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 agreement on .15 or so for Chicago is pretty high. Looks like a brief period of SN is a safe bet tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anyone care to share the 12z euro totals for the second clipper? .24" for DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Anyone care to share the 12z euro totals for the second clipper? On Average a solid 0.25". Snow ratios around 13/14 to 1... solid 3-4 inches possibly as much as 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 .24" for DTW Thanks. Any pockets of .25+ at all in the band? Probably in the lake effect and thumb areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On Average a solid 0.25". Snow ratios around 13/14 to 1... solid 3-4 inches possibly as much as 5" I hope so but I dont think we will get more than 2-3 inches. It's gradually weakening as it comes SE. Maybe the models are a bit off who knows but I'd feel better if it was gaining strength as it heads towards us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thanks. Any pockets of .25+ at all in the band? Probably in the lake effect and thumb areas. Just by eyeballing the graphics, looks like pretty much all of the DTX Warning Area gets hit pretty equally. I have no way of seeing total precipitation, however, just the precip in 6 hour increments. I'll be taking a closer look at some airport codes before I make my forecast in a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You worry too damn much. No, I hate rain during the winter that damn much..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 No, I hate rain during the winter that damn much..... We have had rain twice this winter, which is not unusual. It doesn't look like there will be rain in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 great. Now it will probably rain on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Why is it easier to get rain in the winter than snow in the summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Why is it easier to get rain in the winter than snow in the summer? Anyways, 18z NAM holding ground with the clipper and advertising a brief shot of mod snow, pretty healthy little warm punch too. A tad quicker as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Bufkit for 12z is putting up 4-6" for CLE and 2-4 across central OH for the friday clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Why is it easier to get rain in the winter than snow in the summer? Look at the average temps, even in the dead of winter the average high temp is about 10 degrees below freezing for MSP. Meanwhile in the summer the average low temp is about 30 degrees above freezing. Obviously there's more to it than that...but it's much more realistic that you're going to get above freezing in January than below freezing in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 18z NAM comes in wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Look at the average temps, even in the dead of winter the average high temp is about 10 degrees below freezing for MSP. Meanwhile in the summer the average low temp is about 30 degrees above freezing. Obviously there's more to it than that...but it's much more realistic that you're going to get above freezing in January than below freezing in July. I see what your saying. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still in question where the best swath of synoptic snow is going to setup, but even if it ends up missing Toronto to the SW the LES potential on 080-090 winds is going to more than make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM coming in more juiced up with the second clipper compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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