Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is that so... it tracked from Duluth to Detroit...FYI I'm sure he meant amount wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is that so... it tracked from Duluth to Detroit...FYI 0.25 QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 21Z sref all members keeps the clipper north. That from PS E-wall, or another one u made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 So i guess you missed out on this puppy as well in 03-04? That was the great revenge! Just under 13" imby. Of course, the winter of 2003-04 essentially ended after this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That from PS E-wall, or another one u made. that image is my own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The real fun on the GFS is at 252 hour. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 that image is my own You sure know how to make sexy weather graphics! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Nope both January 2004 and January 2005 saw "superclippers" the likes I have never seen before or since around here. The Jan 14, 2004 clipper wasnt spectacular imby, but north of Detroit got crushed. Still, 4.7" at DTW with this clipper was the biggest of the season, and had 5.6" imby (i BARELY eclipsed that on Mar 16/17, 2004 for biggest storm). Now, 4.7" and 5.6" are excellent totals for a clipper, but when you consider Detroits northern burbs were socked with a solid 8-11" of snow, believe me I felt gypped lol. Then of course the KING, January 22, 2005. DTW sees 12.2", its 11th largest snowstorm on record actually, I see 11.0" imby, and all of metro-Detroit buried in 10-13". Unreal conditions that morning. Zero visibility, a full fledged blizzard at times. Give me a clipper like that anyday! Meanwhile, 00z GFS looks good, a few inches Thursday night with clipper #1 and a few inches Friday night with clipper #2. O yeah, will never forget that clipper. 2-3" ph snowfall in the morning hours.. I was like wtf happened lol, expecting 3-7" ended up with 13", drifts up to 2 feet. My Neighbor was like "what happened to the 5 inch snowfall" I was like OPS. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GEM looking in agreement with the 0z NAM regarding the first wave and showing a decent period of SN here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 pretty big differences between the 0z runs of the LSX and IWX WRF regarding both the 1st and 2nd wave coming down. LSX WRF more agressive with snow here with the lead wave and way further north with the sfc low and stronger with the 2nd wave IWX WRF showing barely any snow here with first wave and weaker and further south with the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 pretty big differences between the 0z runs of the LSX and IWX WRF regarding both the 1st and 2nd wave coming down. LSX WRF more agressive with snow here with the lead wave and way further north with the sfc low and stronger with the 2nd wave IWX WRF showing barely any snow here with first wave and weaker and further south with the 2nd wave. I have not paid alot of attention towards ur weather this winter....but i believe the trend so far was these clippers shifting further south then forcast inside 48 hrs? I might be wrong...but believe this has allowed places in Central Illinois to do real well this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I have not paid alot of attention towards ur weather this winter....but i believe the trend so far was these clippers shifting further south then forcast inside 48 hrs? I might be wrong...but believe this has allowed places in Central Illinois to do real well this winter you are correct sir, a few of these types of systems have ended up further south then the guidance. also helping out the LAF crew. Alek likes to bring this up alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM radar loops shows steady snow for 18 hours with the second clipper in SE MI. I think the fact that it comes down and slows down then heads east may cause some surprises. Temps look to be close to 30 so I would guess ratios wont be the best. Anyone have precip numbers from the GGEM for the second clipper? thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 euro is .10+ for the ne IL crew thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 for the 2nd clipper the euro at 00z had .25+ for the UP.....pretty much all of MI and cleveland/ne ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM radar loops shows steady snow for 18 hours with the second clipper in SE MI. I think the fact that it comes down and slows down then heads east may cause some surprises. Temps look to be close to 30 so I would guess ratios wont be the best. Anyone have precip numbers from the GGEM for the second clipper? thanks. 0.47 extracted from ggem for 2nd clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 0.47 extracted from ggem for 2nd clipper Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 not bad at all. could be a few inches if everything works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 not bad at all. could be a few inches if everything works out. Not bad I say, I hope it holds together to get the LAF crew another 1-3 incher...and maybe the same here just SE of them. All I gotta say is whether its a dusting or a blizzard...Keep it coming, Im almost over 30 inches for the year, Average is around 25 and Feburary is usually my best month. I just love watching it snow regardless of the ferocity of the storm causing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So i guess you missed out on this puppy as well in 03-04? That was the WORST one. On Jan 26th, with 6" of snow already on the ground, they issued a Warning for 6-10" of snow. I was ecstatic. What we ended up getting was an hour burst of heavy precip of freezing rain, sleet, and snow, accumulating a slushy half inch. Then hours later some deform fluff snow that managed to fluff up 24-hour storm total to 2 inches or so. But yeah, by far the biggest bust in what was a northern suburbs winter anyway (payback for the southern burbs getting rocked in '02-03). Lots of huge busts in '03-04. And by busts I mean nowcast busts. We had a solid snowpack from January 4th to February 23rd or so, so that part I enjoyed, but it started with the bust on January 3rd (got 4", expected 8-12"), had this major Jan 27/28th bust, and February had next to no snow with a rotting crusty snowpack. NO comparison to the constant snowpack we have this winter which keeps getting refreshers and no nowcast time busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 O yeah, will never forget that clipper. 2-3" ph snowfall in the morning hours.. I was like wtf happened lol, expecting 3-7" ended up with 13", drifts up to 2 feet. My Neighbor was like "what happened to the 5 inch snowfall" I was like OPS. lol Good times for sure! Of course in 2004-05, everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, went right every time! Outstanding winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 GGEM radar loops shows steady snow for 18 hours with the second clipper in SE MI. I think the fact that it comes down and slows down then heads east may cause some surprises. Temps look to be close to 30 so I would guess ratios wont be the best. Anyone have precip numbers from the GGEM for the second clipper? thanks. Keep in mind, while temps do have a lot to do with ratios, they are not the sole factor. You can have 15-1 ratios easily in temps near 30F if dendritic growth is high. On the flipside, in an arctic airmass with pixiedust sized flakes, you can have close to 10-1 ratios even if the temp is in the teens. Right now we are looking good, DTX is thinking 1-2" tomorrow and 2-4" Saturday. Keep deepening the snowpack, slowly but surely! IT WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WAS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW. SURE ENOUGH...ALL MODELS (REGIONAL GEM/GFS/UKMET/NAM) SHOW AN UPPER WAVE SWINGING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE MAKING BIG REVISIONS TO THE FORECAST...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/MIXING RATIOS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER LOOKS TO BE 2 TO 2.5 G/KG...AND DO THINK A 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL IS LIKELY WITH ABOUT 6 HOURS OF SUSTAINED LIFT TO WORK WITH. ITS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS (SEE EUROPEAN). FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO OUR NEXT CLIPPER...WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY DOUBLED FROM THURSDAY...AS UPPER WAVE (AS SEEN ON GFS DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE) IS MUCH STRONGER AND 500MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER PASSES RIGHT THROUGH THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. SFC-850 MB MOISTURE IS GOOD...AS MIXING RATIOS HOVER AROUND 3 G/KG...WITH MAX LIFT (700 MB) RIGHT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC ZONE GROWTH REGION. 00Z GFS/EUROPEAN SHOWS THE FAVORABLE SURFACE LOW TRACK NEAR THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER...WITH TIMING RIGHT AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. BASED ON THIS TRACK...HIGHEST AMOUNTS WOULD BE ACROSS THE THUMB REGION. A LOOK AT THE 00Z CANADIAN IS EVEN A BIT MORE CONCERNING...AS WE EXPERIENCE A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF UPPER WAVES...AND COULD BE DEALING WITH SNOW CONTINUING WELL INTO SATURDAY. 00Z EUROPEAN IS MORE IN LINE WITH GFS..INDICATING JUST ONE STRONG UPPER WAVE...AND WILL BUMP POPS TO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND HOLD SATURDAY IN HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 not bad at all. could be a few inches if everything works out. Forget the dog piss coverer, that's a dog turd coverer. LOT is on board COMBINATION OF DCVA AND MODEST ISENTROPICASCENT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR QUICK HITTING SHOT OF SNOW THURSDAY. WRF-NAM AND GFS T/H CROSS SECTIONS BOTH SHOW PRETTY FAVORABLE CO-LOCATION OF MAX OMEGA WITH FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH TEMPS SO WE COULD SEE A QUICK HITTING SHOT OF FAIRLY RESPECTABLE SNOWFALL. BLEND OF MODEL QPF WITH 12:1 SLR YIELDS SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR SO...BUT WITH SYSTEM LIKELY TO BE FULLY SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK AT 12Z WOULDNT SURPRISE ME TO SEE THE FORECAST NEED A BIT MORE FINE TUNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Forget the dog piss coverer, that's a dog turd coverer. which wave?Tomorrow morning or the next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 which wave?Tomorrow morning or the next? tomorrow morning, the following should pass well north. 12z NAM advertising a brief shot of moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Forget the dog piss coverer, that's a dog turd coverer. LOT is on board 0z Euro had a bump/stripe of 0.10" or a little more over Chicago on southwest through PNT with the Thursday snow. 12z NAM doesn't look awful either...in a relative sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 With every forecast update for this area, they raise the temps for Thurs/Fri. We were at 29 just the other day, we are now progged for 34 on Thursday and 35 (I have heard highs of 37 already from some outlets) on Friday... Precip chances however, seem to be slim for both days only a 20% chance of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 With every forecast update for this area, they raise the temps for Thurs/Fri. We were at 29 just the other day, we are now progged for 34 on Thursday and 35 (I have heard highs of 37 already from some outlets) on Friday... Precip chances however, seem to be slim for both days only a 20% chance of snow I see 60% likely for snow thurday for your area with a high of 29. Sat will be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think as usual Aleking nailed our winter events this season with the lingo.."Piss Coverer." Had about 20 of these this year,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I see 60% likely for snow thurday for your area with a high of 29. Sat will be warm. I stand corrected, apparently, when I "refreshed" my forecast page earlier this morning... it didn't refresh.... :blush: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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