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End of January "clipper" threat


snowstormcanuck

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My guess it is like the "How much for Philly?" type question provoking the rolled eyes.

Looks like 2-4 inches is a good guess. Which ain't bad for a clipper.:thumbsup:

It came across to me as a shot at Tim for not automatically giving the specific YYZ QPF numbers. Gotta be careful with those emoticons, they're a big part of interpreting a person's emotion over the internet.

Back to the clipper....looks like another chance of lake enhancement as well. 4th time in a month is pretty impressive for the east wind.

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I don't know. I just used it.

It came across to me as a shot at Tim for not automatically giving the specific YYZ QPF numbers. Gotta be careful with those emoticons, they're a big part of interpreting a person's emotion over the internet.

Back to the clipper....looks like another chance of lake enhancement as well. 4th time in a month is pretty impressive for the east wind.

Nah it's cool...no offense taken. :)

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Will County, right? Here's the zone forecast from LOT:

Friday...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s.

Friday Night...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.

Actually, it's Cook County... Watching Jim Ramsey on Ch 9 last night, has us with a high of 38 on Thursday w/rain and 40 on Friday w/rain. Then he has us at 17 for a high on Saturday...

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Actually, it's Cook County... Watching Jim Ramsey on Ch 9 last night, has us with a high of 38 on Thursday w/rain and 40 on Friday w/rain. Then he has us at 17 for a high on Saturday...

Not sure you were listening but he was saying he had doubts of us reaching 40 due to low dew points.. He is usually always bullish either too warm or too cold..

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Actually, it's Cook County... Watching Jim Ramsey on Ch 9 last night, has us with a high of 38 on Thursday w/rain and 40 on Friday w/rain. Then he has us at 17 for a high on Saturday...

It doesn't look like we get above 30 in this area on Friday. Ramsey also mentioned a couple of weeks ago that we were in for a nice warmup which never materialized. He was just hugging one of the model runs and IMO is not very accurate but he does have his moments.

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#1: The NAM is stronger (and slower) at 500 with a closed low dropping down versus the "weaker" GFS...resulting in a much stronger surface reflection.

nam_500_084s.gif

gfs_500_084s.gif

#2: The NAM is all on its own versus the other guidance. Probably a little :weenie: ish, but the NAM seems to like to over-amplify on this time range. I'd trust it very little right now.

#3: Yes.

#4: It could limit the strength of the second bigger piece. Typically hard to get something going when there are multiple waves every other day dropping down from Canada.

Thanks for answering.

Yeah, I assumed the surface reflection was deeper on the NAM based on the 500. I guess I should have posted those maps. I was studying them and can see no reason for the trough to be deeper, based on the rest of the map, other than all of the troughs in the northern stream appear weaker on the GFS. (The one near the WA coast as well as the one out in the Pacific).

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Friday night/Saturday clipper really looks interesting. The weaker clipper Friday morning looks to just brush us as it passes south, but the stronger clipper has some scary model agreement for a classic clipper track for SE MI! I know its asking a lot, but PLEASE hold models!

Similar track of the suprise clipper of 2004 that dumped 7-12 inches around Detroit.

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it was fun while it lasted :(

You've got to laugh at this winter. :lol: Toronto probably has a deeper snowpack than Ottawa this year.

Brett Anderson says we may get hit by something early next week, although he doesn't yet know if it will be rain or snow. :thumbsdown: On a more positive note, he says the coldest air of the season "by far" moves in by the middle of next week. It would be nice if we got a snowstorm followed immediately by a Siberian blast.

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Only clipper that i know of which dumped those kinds of amounts was the Jan 22 2005 clipper on roids. That tracked just sw/s of here.

Oh yeah, Jan 22 2005 is an institutionalized clipper. But there was a fairly impressive one in 2004 as well. Looking at the Jan 14, 2004 climo data for Windsor, they picked up 8" of snow on the nose. Would think there'd be similar amounts in SE MI.

011421.png

Maybe it was too far north for you. I know it was too far south for me, at least for the good stuff. Only ended up with 2.5". But I got my revenge two weeks later.

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Oh yeah, Jan 22 2005 is an institutionalized clipper. But there was a fairly impressive one in 2004 as well. Looking at the Jan 14, 2004 climo data for Windsor, they picked up 8" of snow on the nose. Would think there'd be similar amounts in SE MI.

011421.png

Maybe it was too far north for you. I know it was too far south for me, at least for the good stuff. Only ended up with 2.5". But I got my revenge two weeks later.

I did not live here back then. I moved here in July 2004.

Ahhh. K. I found it ( GRR snow maps ) and yeah it was unimpressive here. The good stuff was just north and east of here. I'll pass on that.

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Only clipper that i know of which dumped those kinds of amounts was the Jan 22 2005 clipper on roids. That tracked just sw/s of here.

Nope both January 2004 and January 2005 saw "superclippers" the likes I have never seen before or since around here.

The Jan 14, 2004 clipper wasnt spectacular imby, but north of Detroit got crushed. Still, 4.7" at DTW with this clipper was the biggest of the season, and had 5.6" imby (i BARELY eclipsed that on Mar 16/17, 2004 for biggest storm). Now, 4.7" and 5.6" are excellent totals for a clipper, but when you consider Detroits northern burbs were socked with a solid 8-11" of snow, believe me I felt gypped lol.

Then of course the KING, January 22, 2005. DTW sees 12.2", its 11th largest snowstorm on record actually, I see 11.0" imby, and all of metro-Detroit buried in 10-13". Unreal conditions that morning. Zero visibility, a full fledged blizzard at times. Give me a clipper like that anyday!

Meanwhile, 00z GFS looks good, a few inches Thursday night with clipper #1 and a few inches Friday night with clipper #2.

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Nope both January 2004 and January 2005 saw "superclippers" the likes I have never seen before or since around here.

The Jan 14, 2004 clipper wasnt spectacular imby, but north of Detroit got crushed. Still, 4.7" at DTW with this clipper was the biggest of the season, and had 5.6" imby (i BARELY eclipsed that on Mar 16/17, 2004 for biggest storm). Now, 4.7" and 5.6" are excellent totals for a clipper, but when you consider Detroits northern burbs were socked with a solid 8-11" of snow, believe me I felt gypped lol.

Then of course the KING, January 22, 2005. DTW sees 12.2", its 11th largest snowstorm on record actually, I see 11.0" imby, and all of metro-Detroit buried in 10-13". Unreal conditions that morning. Zero visibility, a full fledged blizzard at times. Give me a clipper like that anyday!

Meanwhile, 00z GFS looks good, a few inches Thursday night with clipper #1 and a few inches Friday night with clipper #2.

So i guess you missed out on this puppy as well in 03-04? :yikes:

SnowMap20040127_1200.png

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