Stebo Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Cool. Too many impulses/clippers...which is nice to have, but a little confusing to keep track of sometimes. That is the one problem with the hyper active pattern, too much stuff, not allowing anything to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z GGEM has the minor front runner too (Thu/Fri). The follow up stronger system dives in at 1000mb around INL and goes just to the south of GRB (1005mb) to north of GRR (1010mb) and then around the BUF area at 1012mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z GGEM has the minor front runner too (Thu/Fri). The follow up stronger system dives in at 1000mb around INL and goes just to the south of GRB (1005mb) to north of GRR (1010mb) and then around the BUF area at 1012mb. I've been neglecting this event for the most part but it's looking better and better for some light accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How much QPF here Chicago WX? Thanks in advanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I've been neglecting this event for the most part but it's looking better and better for some light accumulations. Which one? J/K. Yeah we may be able to pull out a little bit of snow. Beats nothing happening, alas there may be bigger fish to fry for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 How much QPF here Chicago WX? Thanks in advanced. 12z GGEM? I'm going off the B/W maps, but I'd say a general 0.20-0.40" would be the range for FDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Okay, I have question or two. I depend on you guys here to interpret the models since I don't have good understanding of the science and dynamics. Here is the NAM depiction of the clipper at 84 hrs: And the GFS: Obviously, the NAM depicts the stronger solution. It is more wound up and wetter. This also would explain the slower progression and warmer temps being pumped up into IL and WI. Question #1: What do I look for that could account for this discrepancy in solutions? Question #2: Which solution is more likely to verify? Question #3: Extrapolating the NAM, would it take a more northerly track than the GFS in this setup since it is stronger? Question #4:What effect, if any, could the first "mini clipper" have on the strength/track of this stronger system? I am just trying to learn some basics here. Thanks to anyone that wants to take the time to answer my questions. As an aside, I feel that myself, the ORD and CMH crews are in a good position to be in the sweet spot due to the model trends this winter to adjust south after this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Okay, I have question or two. I depend on you guys here to interpret the models since I don't have good understanding of the science and dynamics. Here is the NAM depiction of the clipper at 84 hrs: Obviously, the NAM depicts the stronger solution. It is more wound up and wetter. This also would explain the slower progression and warmer temps being pumped up into IL and WI. Question #1: What do I look for that could account for this discrepancy in solutions? Question #2: Which solution is more likely to verify? Question #3: Extrapolating the NAM, would it take a more northerly track than the GFS in this setup since it is stronger? Question #4:What effect, if any, could the first "mini clipper" have on the strength/track of this stronger system? I am just trying to learn some basics here. Thanks to anyone that wants to take the time to answer my questions. As an aside, I feel that myself, the ORD and CMH crews are in a good position to be in the sweet spot due to the model trends this winter to adjust south after this time frame. #1: The NAM is stronger (and slower) at 500 with a closed low dropping down versus the "weaker" GFS...resulting in a much stronger surface reflection. #2: The NAM is all on its own versus the other guidance. Probably a little ish, but the NAM seems to like to over-amplify on this time range. I'd trust it very little right now. #3: Yes. #4: It could limit the strength of the second bigger piece. Typically hard to get something going when there are multiple waves every other day dropping down from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We are being progged for rain here at that time frame... Temps are forecast to be in the 40's on Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We are being progged for rain here at that time frame... Temps are forecast to be in the 40's on Friday... Will County, right? Here's the zone forecast from LOT: Friday...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s. Friday Night...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 first wave.. then its showing this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Will County, right? Here's the zone forecast from LOT: Friday...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 30s. Friday Night...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 And right on cue, the 12z Euro looks a little stronger at 78 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 considering the putrid agreement for these events, it's amazing how much energy i'm spending following a 160+hr event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 gfs gives cmh over .35 or so for Friday and Saturday. Definitely something to keep an eye on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Definitely stronger than the 0z run. Looks fairly similar to the 12z GGEM through 90 hours, but maybe a tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Roardog and the YYZ crew probably be lovin' some 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Roardog and the YYZ crew probably be lovin' some 12z Euro. With that low track, I'll take what the precip will end up being. Probably a good hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With that low track, I'll take what the precip will end up being. Probably a good hit here. In between DTW and the thumb do well it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 QPF totals off the 12z EURO from Thursday - Saturday: MIE: .09 LAF: .04 DAY: .13 IND: .04 CMH: .16 FWA: .18 GRR: .33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DTW: .22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Roardog and the YYZ crew probably be lovin' some 12z Euro. Could you tell me how much it shows for us. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DTW: .22 Is that for only the second clipper? or for both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Could you tell me how much it shows for us. Thanks wtf's with the roll-eyes emoticon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Is that for only the second clipper? or for both Both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Is that for only the second clipper? or for both If its both, based upon the low track of that 2nd one it will be too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If its both, based upon the low track of that 2nd one it will be too low. It wouldnt make sense. With track of the low 13/14 to 1 Ratios look for nice 3-4 inch event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Could you tell me how much it shows for us. Thanks wtf's with the roll-eyes emoticon? My guess it is like the "How much for Philly?" type question provoking the rolled eyes. Looks like 2-4 inches is a good guess. Which ain't bad for a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Could you tell me how much it shows for us. Thanks No specific numbers, but a general 0.25-0.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 wtf's with the roll-eyes emoticon? I don't know. I just used it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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