Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I hear you. I myself will take anything BUT more blocking crap. Ofcourse that works better for you guys so i can see why you all don't mind it as much. meh.. See what happens as you say. I have already been beat down into a hole with this winter and so whatever happens happens. Unfortunately our gain has been your loss. Trust me, I'd love to spread the wealth a la the 07-08 Nina, although I guess places further south of here wouldn't agree with that either. Tough to get everyone involved all winter it seems. Just get me to 40"+ for the season with one 6"+ storm, and you guys can have all of the snow for the rest of the season. Deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Unfortunately our gain has been your loss. Trust me, I'd love to spread the wealth a la the 07-08 Nina, although I guess places further south of here wouldn't agree with that either. Tough to get everyone involved all winter it seems. Just get me to 40"+ for the season with one 6"+ storm, and you guys can have all of the snow for the rest of the season. Deal? Need a Jan 78 type deal but maybe shifted east by about 20 miles ( i think that was the cut off? ) so the guys in Detroit can all get in it too. I know Ann Arbor did good but much less in Detroit/Just east. That would cure ALL as Chicago should still be able to cash in via the added lake stuff with such a track as would bowme. Would say 67 but that would need a bit more work to make it work out good for most. Ofcourse another Jan 99 would work too. Prefer a little further east though by about 40/50 miles. That would be cool to see you guys get 40 regardless. You all should be good for that and even 50 seems reasonable. Now lets hope for the north moving gulf monster through central Ohio to Sandusky to Lake Huron that can bring us all 12+ and then we can have a spine runner for them folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Unfortunately our gain has been your loss. Trust me, I'd love to spread the wealth a la the 07-08 Nina, although I guess places further south of here wouldn't agree with that either. Tough to get everyone involved all winter it seems. Just get me to 40"+ for the season with one 6"+ storm, and you guys can have all of the snow for the rest of the season. Deal? I think a big problem for Harry, as much as he wants the big bomb, is that almost every LES event has underperformed or the wind flow has been screwed up. Its actually very rare for Detroit and Battle Creek to be neck and neck with snowfall mid-winter, as they are this year. Its also amazing that even after todays snow you will still be 9-10" above DTW, yet DTW averages upwards of 20" more, is further north, and has actually had a 6" storm. Weird winter. The constant snowcover has kept me very calm about it though, but Id still welcome all the rest of the snow once you hit 40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Need a Jan 78 type deal but maybe shifted east by about 20 miles ( i think that was the cut off? ) so the guys in Detroit can all get in it too. I know Ann Arbor did good but much less in Detroit/Just east. That would cure ALL as Chicago should still be able to cash in via the added lake stuff with such a track as would bowme. Would say 67 but that would need a bit more work to make it work out good for most. Ofcourse another Jan 99 would work too. Prefer a little further east though by about 40/50 miles. That would be cool to see you guys get 40 regardless. You all should be good for that and even 50 seems reasonable. Now lets hope for the north moving gulf monster through central Ohio to Sandusky to Lake Huron that can bring us all 12+ and then we can have a spine runner for them folks. We've got to find a way to get another Jan 78 or Jan 99-ish storm. I think that would cure the ills for some with this winter. Of course that's probably a pipe dream...but one can always hope. I'd even do a Jan 67 repeat, even though it was a massive ice storm for LAF. I can always travel north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think a big problem for Harry, as much as he wants the big bomb, is that almost every LES event has underperformed or the wind flow has been screwed up. Its actually very rare for Detroit and Battle Creek to be neck and neck with snowfall mid-winter, as they are this year. Its also amazing that even after todays snow you will still be 9-10" above DTW, yet DTW averages upwards of 20" more, is further north, and has actually had a 6" storm. Weird winter. The constant snowcover has kept me very calm about it though, but Id still welcome all the rest of the snow once you hit 40" At least 40"+ and one 6"+ storm to be exact though. But yeah, strange/bad winter for BTL, GRR, etc. as the LES has really disappointed. Still time to turn it around somewhat though. Well at least I'm hoping like hell it can for Harry, et all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think a big problem for Harry, as much as he wants the big bomb, is that almost every LES event has underperformed or the wind flow has been screwed up. Its actually very rare for Detroit and Battle Creek to be neck and neck with snowfall mid-winter, as they are this year. Its also amazing that even after todays snow you will still be 9-10" above DTW, yet DTW averages upwards of 20" more, is further north, and has actually had a 6" storm. Weird winter. The constant snowcover has kept me very calm about it though, but Id still welcome all the rest of the snow once you hit 40" It is not just the lake stuff either. I mean EVERYTHING has underperformed here except for the 1-2 type deals. Granted this thing today is under performing too but this really doesn't count as it was not expected to be much anyways. Look at the totals everywhere even to the south and you will get the picture. Most is at or well above here with seasonal snowfall which yeah makes it worse as it becomes more obvious just how bad it is been here this winter. I am glad and am happy everyone else that is getting it is in THIS region anyways. Just sucks to be the odd man out. Oh well not much i say or do will change it so no need to rant on about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm glad the Euro isn't smoking what the GFS is re: the brutal cold spilling right overhead and screwing up any decent storm chances. IMO this thing should feel free to scoot harmlessly well north. best post of the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It is not just the lake stuff either. I mean EVERYTHING has underperformed here except for the 1-2 type deals. Granted this thing today is under performing too but this really doesn't count as it was not expected to be much anyways. Look at the totals everywhere even to the south and you will get the picture. Most is at or well above here with seasonal snowfall which yeah makes it worse as it becomes more obvious just how bad it is been here this winter. I am glad and am happy everyone else that is getting it is in THIS region anyways. Just sucks to be the odd man out. Oh well not much i say or do will change it so no need to rant on about it. Usually in scenarios like this, where most places do well, the odd man out ends up scoring big time late in the season by being a jackpot in a late-winter storm. Now, granted thats not going to stay on the ground as long (esp if its mid-march or later) but I see it all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I have about .5" on the ground this morning. This isn't even nickel and dime stuff, hell, it's probably not even pennies. I have been looking at the models (GFS, EURO) for precip trends as of late, and it doesn't seem like much wants to happen around the GL for at least the next 10 days, unless the latest runs are showing something different (haven't looked yet). Also, since we are seemingly cold and dry as of late, is this a harbinger of the spring/summer if this pattern continues, or are we looking for a change to a wetter pattern for this region some time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS following the Euro (shocker) and looking less and less impressive with the clipper, from 996 to 1004 0z to 12z. Initial warm push will be less agressive as should the backside cold dump, setting up a potentially more interesting baroclinic zone in the range beyond. The difference between 0z and 12z at 850 by hr 104 or so are pretty monster, especially over the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 high resolution 12z ggem back to the strong clipper idea...nice swath of snow from n mn through the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 high resolution 12z ggem back to the strong clipper idea...nice swath of snow from n mn through the lakes And closes off over MI like the 12z euro did yesterday. Now to get today's 12z euro back on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 And closes off over MI like the 12z euro did yesterday. Now to get today's 12z euro back on board. hope you can cash in on this one harry, c'mon euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hope you can cash in on this one harry, c'mon euro Thanks. Good luck out that way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The CMC wasn't bad but were still on the southside of the storm system. Be nice if it goes south but I am not holding out too much hope given the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 high resolution 12z ggem back to the strong clipper idea...nice swath of snow from n mn through the lakes get that thing alittle further southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro looks a little weaker and a touch farther south through 108, compared to the 0z run that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Eh, weaker overall, but it still gives some lovin' to SE MI and Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Eh, weaker overall, but it still gives some lovin' to SE MI and Ontario. Yep. GGEM is all alone unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i bet "baro" is glad he didn't start the thread...lol Cmichweather and I both. As he said--there was high bust potential for this to not phase way out in the Pacific and come in weaker--and it did just that. His blizzard is gone, and my windstorm is gone. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Instead its coming down as two separate clippers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Instead its coming down as two separate clippers? Yeah, about three separate waves. Also much less influence with the Arctic vortex--hence the lack of a cold air push some guidance suggested. Overall a big turd clipper. Fits the theme of the last 2 months--has great potential then fizzles into multiple pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Instead its coming down as two separate clippers? Yeah, about three separate waves. Also much less influence with the Arctic vortex--hence the lack of a cold air push some guidance suggested. Overall a big turd clipper. Fits the theme of the last 2 months--has great potential then fizzles into multiple pieces of energy. I should say it is a respectable clipper in its own right--not a turd clipper. But a weak one in comparison. Still a classic clipper--as long as it doesn't come in even weaker. Typically when the CMC looks like the previous guidance (in this case GFS/Euro) and they have already since changed, the CMC will be wrong and will catch up within a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I should say it is a respectable clipper in its own right--not a turd clipper. But a weak one in comparison. Still a classic clipper--as long as it doesn't come in even weaker. Typically when the CMC looks like the previous guidance (in this case GFS/Euro) and they have already since changed, the CMC will be wrong and will catch up within a few runs. The CMC seemed to do better a couple winters back when we had more southern stream action, or maybe i'm imagining things. It's struggling mightily this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The CMC seemed to do better a couple winters back when we had more southern stream action, or maybe i'm imagining things. It's struggling mightily this year. The CMC is an odd model in that it has respectable height field verification scores and an advanced 4dvar data assimilation system, but overall, it is pretty pathetic in comparison to the GFS/Euro. I think one person said it well in another thread when they called it the "Hyundai" of the global models. Reminds me a lot of the UK in that they both score well but generally stink as global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 CMC has had a terrible terrible year and im a supporter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Gfs 18z brought back somewhat of a super clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We need this clipper to move further south to get into some good snows, if its stays to the north as advertised right now, I honestly dont see any accumulating snowfall.. just some gusty winds and very little lake effect, the winds might be the right trajectory but unfortunately the stronger winds tend to cut down on l/e especially form l/h.. Never materializes anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Gfs 18z brought back somewhat of a super clipper and further s as it comes into MN but it also did this on yesterdays 18Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The GFS is heading toward irrevelancy very quick right now. You can cry about the GGEM all you want, but the GFS couldn't even sample the long range pattern right 3 days ago unlike the foreign models. Say what? Instead of making silly comments like this post your proof. Quite honestly all numerical guidance has been lacking. It happens in patterns like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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