michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Anyways, to get back on topic... I'm not sure if it's an error or not but I'm prety much the only point grid forecast in Northern Wayne County that has 1-3" versus 2-4" (surrounded in every direction by 2-4"). I HATE those point/grid forecasts. They are never right, I just stick with the regular forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well 2007-08 was the perfect example of how I do enjoy snowstorms AND snowcover. I was very upset every time our snowpack was torched away, but then within a day or two or three it was right back because we kept getting storms. If we could guarentee a winter like that again, TRUST me Id be all for it and willing to take the snowpack destroying torches IF I knew another storm was a day or two away. But honestly, dont know if we can ever get that lucky again lol. Itd be like lightning striking the same place twice. Its very rare to luck out every time you lose snowpack with immediate replenishment. Usually sometimes you get the torch, lose the snow, then have to go a week or more with bare frigid ground, which is why I hate torches. I feel the same about this winter actually. While most of this winter has featured high end nickel & dime events (And I would love snowstorms AND snowcover), I hate it when it snows just enough to make a mess of everything and shovel yet it stops just shy of disrupting our daily tasks and snowblower criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well meanwhile the 12z GFS is still drier, in fact drier than the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I feel the same about this winter actually. While most of this winter has featured high end nickel & dime events (And I would love snowstorms AND snowcover), I hate it when it snows just enough to make a mess of everything and shovel yet it stops just shy of disrupting our daily tasks and snowblower criteria. Understandable. Like we said to each his own. If all goes right, a week from now we may be reminiscing about a big storm AND obviously having a very deep snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 DTX updated their WWA. Not much of a significant change. The only real differennce is they added that 1" per hour rates are likely for 1 to 3 hours in any given location. Also, they removed the mention of isolated 5" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 000FXUS63 KGRR 281614 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1110 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 LATEST UPDATE...SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM... A FEW MORE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN END AND NOW INCLUDES THE I-96 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH... THIS WILL COVER THE BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW RATES THAT WILL IMPACT THE MKG...GRR... LAN AREAS AS THE VORT TRACKS OVHD OR CLOSE BY. ALSO THE ADVISORY CONFIGURATION MORE CLOSELY MATCHES THE ADJACENT OFFICES ON THE SOUTH END. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This stronger clipper looks to drop its heaviest snow north of Detroit, so while areas near the OH border will still probably see another good 2" I think YYZ might get something as well to measure at least tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Johndee.com map for the clipper. Clippers haven't really disappointed in the end this yr so far.. Hope the trend continues for ya all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think YYZ might get something as well to measure at least tomorrow. It'll be close and if we do, just barely. That's the way I see anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 000FXUS63 KGRR 281745 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1245 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS OF 17Z AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MOST OF THE IFR HAS ENDED AND THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRENDING OUT OF MVFR AND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...02-04Z. ONCE IT SETTLES IN VSBYS WILL RAPIDLY DROP INTO IFR/LIFR RANGES. 3-5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR MKG...GRR AND LAN...WHILE 2-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR AZO...BTL AND JXN. EXPECT A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 11-13Z FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SNOW ENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 SPC put out a meso discussion for a clipper. That doesn't happen very often. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0052.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 SPC put out a meso discussion for a clipper. That doesn't happen very often. http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0052.html Looks like the Duluth area getting decent snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GRR added a heavy snow mention to their grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Everything staying east of here, or so it would seem.. They were saying something about freezing drizzle later... That might not be good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like a brief intense burst of snow will be possible in the overnight. While its been a continuously snowcovered winter, the peak snow depth this season has just been 6" (on numerous occasions in Dec and Jan), so it looks like tomorrow will be the deepest snow of the season thus far (current depth pre-clipper is 5-6"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Heavy snow falling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 000FXUS63 KDTX 282302 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 602 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 .AVIATION... REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FT THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW OVERSPREADS SE MI. THE SNOW WILL BE THE RESULT OF A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SLIDE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY SAT MORNING. AN AXIS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK...ROUGHLY FROM SAGINAW INTO DETROIT. TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z...WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BE AT LIFR AND VLIFR IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL THEN END AFTER 13Z AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLY ALONG THE 1-75 CORRIDOR FROM MBS RIGHT INTO DET. THE STRONGEST LIFT MAY PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF DTW...WHERE MAX ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Mbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Mbs? I think that's the code for Saginaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 3" of snow so far and now sleeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 3" of snow so far and now sleeting. Sleet? Are you sure it's not rimed snow (snow grains)? http://en.wikipedia....iki/Snow_grains http://www.answers.com/topic/rime What are your precipitation rates like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The snow may begin a bit sooner than the models forecasted, The precipitation is already crossing Lake Michigan and the models had all of it back in Minnesota at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 000FXUS63 KDTX 290222 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 922 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 .UPDATE... AS OF 02Z...UPSTREAM RADAR COMPOSITE SHOW A HEALTHY BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. A FAIRLY COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL RACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. UPSTREAM REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TIED VERY CLOSELY TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 700-600MB LAYER. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS UPSTREAM OF ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THIS BAND. THE 00Z NAM AND RUC INDICATE THIS STRONG FGEN BECOMING ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL MI INTO METRO DETROIT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG THROUGH 06Z AS THE SNOW ENTERS WESTERN LOWER MI...WHICH IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTED BY LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE FGEN IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER SE MI AS THE OVERALL UPPER JET FORCING WEAKENS. OBSERVATIONAL DATA NOW IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTING THE CURRENT AREAS COVERED BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SO OVERALL NOT TOO MUCH WILL BE UPDATED THIS EVENING. THE MAGNITUDE OF FRONTAL FORCING AND DECREASING STABILITY ALOFT OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS. THUS PLAN TO BROADEN THE RANGE IN THE ADVISORY A BIT...WITH A FEW LOCALS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 INCHES. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 First clipper that was a dud here - Granted I was only supposed to get a around an inch,,, Remember a few days ago MKE wasn't believing the NAM showing dry air.. NAM, FTW. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 848 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011 UPDATE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL HAS STAYED MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS WAS LOCATED. MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD...THEREBY ENDING THE SNOW. HAVE THUS CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR WASHINGTON AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES AND WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME FOR FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN ONCE THE SNOW ENDS. STILL SOME THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL PROBABLY STAY PATCHY AND NOT WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY. GEHRING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Im going to bed now but Ill be up by 6am Did a few snow depth measurments earlier this evening, average depth is still about 6", so by midday tomorrow it should be looking VERY nice! DTX saying 2-5" with tonight/tomorrow mornings clipper. And to think what POSSIBLY lies ahead this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sleet? Are you sure it's not rimed snow (snow grains)? http://en.wikipedia....iki/Snow_grains http://www.answers.com/topic/rime What are your precipitation rates like? It could have been snow grain. I don't know. Lots of freezing around now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Woke up at 2am, no new snow, then woke up at 5am, looks like a couple inches new (hard to tell exactly from my bedroom window with all the old snow). It was a FAST accumulation and has tapered some but looks like one more heavy band is coming through. A very short but intense clipper it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Things getting ugly down here, just went to Freezing Drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0.8" of a very snow pellet/grain type snow ... was not expecting that. Hard to believe that my biggest synoptic snowfall of the season remains at 2.7" on January 11th. Absolutely insane how every system has dodged this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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