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End of January "clipper" threat


snowstormcanuck

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Well 2007-08 was the perfect example of how I do enjoy snowstorms AND snowcover. I was very upset every time our snowpack was torched away, but then within a day or two or three it was right back because we kept getting storms. If we could guarentee a winter like that again, TRUST me Id be all for it and willing to take the snowpack destroying torches IF I knew another storm was a day or two away. But honestly, dont know if we can ever get that lucky again lol. Itd be like lightning striking the same place twice. Its very rare to luck out every time you lose snowpack with immediate replenishment. Usually sometimes you get the torch, lose the snow, then have to go a week or more with bare frigid ground, which is why I hate torches.

I feel the same about this winter actually.

While most of this winter has featured high end nickel & dime events (And I would love snowstorms AND snowcover), I hate it when it snows just enough to make a mess of everything and shovel yet it stops just shy of disrupting our daily tasks and snowblower criteria.

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I feel the same about this winter actually.

While most of this winter has featured high end nickel & dime events (And I would love snowstorms AND snowcover), I hate it when it snows just enough to make a mess of everything and shovel yet it stops just shy of disrupting our daily tasks and snowblower criteria.

Understandable. Like we said to each his own. If all goes right, a week from now we may be reminiscing about a big storm AND obviously having a very deep snowpack.

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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

000

FXUS63 KGRR 281614

AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

1110 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2011

LATEST UPDATE...SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM...

A FEW MORE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

ON THE SOUTHERN END AND NOW INCLUDES THE I-96 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE

STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION FORECAST HASN/T CHANGED MUCH... THIS WILL

COVER THE BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW RATES THAT WILL IMPACT THE

MKG...GRR... LAN AREAS AS THE VORT TRACKS OVHD OR CLOSE BY. ALSO THE

ADVISORY CONFIGURATION MORE CLOSELY MATCHES THE ADJACENT OFFICES ON

THE SOUTH END.

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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GRR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

000

FXUS63 KGRR 281745

AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

1245 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WERE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS OF 17Z AND

THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

THEREFORE MOST OF THE IFR HAS ENDED AND THE TAF SITES WILL BE

TRENDING OUT OF MVFR AND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS.

A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN ACROSS

ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...02-04Z. ONCE IT SETTLES IN

VSBYS WILL RAPIDLY DROP INTO IFR/LIFR RANGES. 3-5 INCHES OF

ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR MKG...GRR AND LAN...WHILE 2-3 INCHES IS

EXPECTED FOR AZO...BTL AND JXN.

EXPECT A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE

STORM. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 11-13Z FROM WEST

TO EAST AS THE SNOW ENDS.

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Looks like a brief intense burst of snow will be possible in the overnight. While its been a continuously snowcovered winter, the peak snow depth this season has just been 6" (on numerous occasions in Dec and Jan), so it looks like tomorrow will be the deepest snow of the season thus far (current depth pre-clipper is 5-6").

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:wub:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

000

FXUS63 KDTX 282302

AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

602 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011

.AVIATION...

REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF CLOUD BASES BETWEEN

3500 AND 4500 FT THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY

DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SNOW OVERSPREADS SE MI. THE SNOW WILL

BE THE RESULT OF A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY

LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY

SLIDE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY SAT MORNING. AN AXIS OF

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK...ROUGHLY FROM

SAGINAW INTO DETROIT. TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED

BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z...WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BE AT LIFR AND VLIFR IN

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL THEN END AFTER 13Z AS THE

SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4

INCHES ARE POSSIBLY ALONG THE 1-75 CORRIDOR FROM MBS RIGHT INTO DET.

THE STRONGEST LIFT MAY PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF DTW...WHERE MAX

ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES.

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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

000

FXUS63 KDTX 290222

AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

922 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011

.UPDATE...

AS OF 02Z...UPSTREAM RADAR COMPOSITE SHOW A HEALTHY BAND OF SNOW

EXTENDING FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL LAKE

MICHIGAN. A FAIRLY COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW SEEN OVER

NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL RACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT

INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. UPSTREAM REFLECTIVITIES APPEAR TIED VERY

CLOSELY TO FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN THE 700-600MB LAYER. THERE

HAVE BEEN REPORTS UPSTREAM OF ONE TO TWO INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL

RATES WITHIN THIS BAND. THE 00Z NAM AND RUC INDICATE THIS STRONG

FGEN BECOMING ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL MI INTO METRO DETROIT BETWEEN

06Z AND 12Z. THE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG THROUGH

06Z AS THE SNOW ENTERS WESTERN LOWER MI...WHICH IS CERTAINLY

SUPPORTED BY LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE FGEN IS STILL FORECAST TO

WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER SE MI AS THE OVERALL UPPER JET FORCING

WEAKENS. OBSERVATIONAL DATA NOW IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTING THE

CURRENT AREAS COVERED BY THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SO OVERALL

NOT TOO MUCH WILL BE UPDATED THIS EVENING. THE MAGNITUDE OF

FRONTAL FORCING AND DECREASING STABILITY ALOFT OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS

THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS. THUS PLAN

TO BROADEN THE RANGE IN THE ADVISORY A BIT...WITH A FEW LOCALS

POSSIBLY REACHING 5 INCHES. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE

CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

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First clipper that was a dud here - Granted I was only supposed to get a around an inch,,, Remember a few days ago MKE wasn't believing the NAM showing dry air.. NAM, FTW.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

848 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

UPDATE

HEAVIEST SNOWFALL HAS STAYED MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE

CWA WHERE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS WAS LOCATED. MID LEVEL DRY AIR

QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD...THEREBY ENDING THE SNOW. HAVE THUS

CANCELLED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR WASHINGTON AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES

AND WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME FOR FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN ONCE THE

SNOW ENDS. STILL SOME THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT WILL

PROBABLY STAY PATCHY AND NOT WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY.

GEHRING

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0.8" of a very snow pellet/grain type snow ... was not expecting that.

Hard to believe that my biggest synoptic snowfall of the season remains at 2.7" on January 11th. Absolutely insane how every system has dodged this area.

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