dmc76 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If banding sets up as the low sort of pivots before moving eastward, before the low starts to weaken, I can some areas picking up 5-6 inches. Looks like a 2-4 atleast hopefully your finally on board. This is almost a lock to get 3-4 inches if not 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 your finally on board. This is almost a lock to get 3-4 inches if not 5" The fact that pessimistic DTX thinks M-59 and I-69 should see atleast 3-4 inches put me over the hump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Clipper #1 was a success here. Dropped 2.3" imby and 1.8" at DTW. The I-94 area towards the OH border definitely the winners with this one. Quite pleased as the snowpack slowly keeps growing. Heres to the bigger clipper #2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Chad had 1.1"...I had 1.2" at my place. 1.2" here also on .08" liquid. Gives me a 5" snowpack and 21" even for the year. If I could get one 14" storm to get me to my annual average I would be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well the 06z NAM was the driest of all its runs with no 0.25"+ anywhere east of Wisconsin. 06z GFS was pretty dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well the 06z NAm was the driest of all its runs with no 0.25"+ aywhere east of Wisconsin. Yea at this point I dont look at the models and just check out the radar. If narrow bands setup, 5 inches in attainable with most of it occuring at night here with good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yea at this point I dont look at the models and just check out the radar. If narrow bands setup, 5 inches in attainable with most of it occuring at night here with good ratios. This does send up a red flag for me because normally if a storm was going to overachieve (or at the very least remain on track) the QPF amounts would remain steady if not slowly increase. The thing with clippers too is they can either overachieve or underachieve, they rarely i never produce as forecasted. The fact that the QPF now is slowly decreasing with time has me wondering if this storm will underachive, which of course doesn't say much because it's not that impressive of a system to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This does send up a red flag for me because normally if a storm was going to overachive (or at the very least remain on track) the QPF amounts would remain steady if not slowly increase. The thing with clippers too is they can either overchieve or underacheve, they rarely i never produce as forecasted. The fact that the QPF now is slowly decreasing with time has me wondring if this storm will underachive, which of course doesn't say much because it's not that impressive of a system to begin with. Yesterdays weak wave may have something to do with that. Would've been sweet if they would have phased. Either way hoping for the best. You would think it would atleast maintain its 1000 strength because its coming into less of a dry air mass the further south it comes out of canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 We picked up 1.5 here yesterday. I didn't even watch the radar or really notice the snow much yesterday ... typical "second half of winter if it's not a significant snow doesn't garner much attention storm. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z NAM carrying the 0.25" line farther east (and a broader stripe) through MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z NAm says basically from M59 to just north of I69. GRR says 15-18 ratio so 3-6 seems attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Hopefully these drier 06z/18z runs are just blips. The 12z NAM is relatively wet again, but it has nudged things a hair NE compared to the 00z. Once again I just barely scraped 0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Hopefully these drier 06z/18z runs are just blips. The 12z NAM is relatively wet again, but it has nudged things a hair NE compared to the 00z. Once again I just barely scraped 0.25". Yea if it can go flat and slow down and not plow right through, could be some big winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yea if it can go flat and slow down and not plow right through, could be some big winners. This is an awesome description of Oakland County taking moisture away from Macomb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It will be interesting to see how things pan out here. It seems the 2 clippers will combine for a very "spread the wealth" scenario in SE MI, as the first weaker clipper dropped a solid 2" (a jackpot of 2.3" imby) on most areas south of Detroit while many areas north of town saw an inch or less. This stronger clipper looks to drop its heaviest snow north of Detroit, so while areas near the OH border will still probably see another good 2", expect areas north of town to see at least 3"-4". So in the end, it looks like most areas will have at least 4" of new snow over the 48-hr period, probably more. Snow depth in SE MI areawide should range from 6-10" by tomorrow Ratios for clipper #1 were about 20-1, so if we can match those on clipper #2, expect to see many 5" reports popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Apaprently GRR added a SW row of counties to the WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It will be interesting to see how things pan out here. It seems the 2 clippers will combine for a very "spread the wealth" scenario in SE MI, as the first weaker clipper dropped a solid 2" (a jackpot of 2.3" imby) on most areas south of Detroit while many areas north of town saw an inch or less. This stronger clipper looks to drop its heaviest snow north of Detroit, so while areas near the OH border will still probably see another good 2", expect areas north of town to see at least 3"-4". So in the end, it looks like most areas will have at least 4" of new snow over the 48-hr period, probably more. Snow depth in SE MI areawide should range from 6-10" by tomorrow Ratios for clipper #1 were about 20-1, so if we can match those on clipper #2, expect to see many 5" reports popping up. Thats what Im thinking north and along 59 will be flirting with 5" just an appetizer to next weeks storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Apparently the 00z WRF-NMM has a 0.50"+ bulleyes directly over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Oh, and if DTW picks up 2.1"+ with the clipper (which looks likely), they will make it into the top 20 snowiest January list. #20 is 18.3", DTW is at 16.2". So much for a boring month BTW flurries and light snow have been falling nonstop since the clipper snow departed late last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Oh, and if DTW picks up 2.1"+ with the clipper (which looks likely), they will make it into the top 20 snowiest January list. #20 is 18.3", DTW is at 16.2". So much for a boring month If you're a fan of big snowstorms it's been quite boring. To each his own I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If you're a fan of big snowstorms it's been quite boring. To each his own I suppose. Id say a more accurate statement is "if the only thing that really matters to you is big snowstorms, its been quite boring". Because I am a fan of big snowstorms, but a bigger fan of winter, and snow falling almost every day and constant snowcover and cold = perfect. But agree, to each his own. Regardless any way you want to slice it, January is going to end up with well above normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Id say a more accurate statement is "if the only thing that really matters to you is big snowstorms, its been quite boring". Because I am a fan of big snowstorms, but a bigger fan of winter, and snow falling almost every day and constant snowcover and cold = perfect. But agree, to each his own. Regardless any way you want to slice it, January is going to end up with well above normal snowfall. For me it's not a question of what we got but how we got it. SSC said it best before. It's one of those above averge months that still leave much to be desired for some. Somewhat like how you graduated college (which is good) but you still didn't experience an actual college lifestyle. Isn't that how you felt in msot of 2007-2008 when it came to snowcover? But yeah, if you enjoy nickel & dimes then it was the perfect month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is an awesome description of Oakland County taking moisture away from Macomb... Dont remind me, everytime I look at the radar with lake effect light snows, theres a brick wall in central oakland. Got a little payback with my monstrous 1.5 I got yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 For me it's not a question of what we got but how we got it. SSC said it best before. It's one of those above averge months that still leave much to be desired for some. Somewhat like how you graduated college (which is good) but you still didn't experience an actual college lifestyle. Isn't that how you felt in msot of 2007-2008 when it came to snowcover? But yeah, if you enjoy nickel & dimes then it was the perfect month. Would help if you put your location up. I am assuming your from detroit area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Didn't expect this when I woke up: .A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHEAST INDIANA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA AS THE EVENING APPROACHES. BY THE TIME THE SNOW DIMINISHES AROUND MIDNIGHT...3 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL 5 INCH AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LOCATED EAST OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM FOND DU LAC TO WEST BEND AND SAUKVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Apparently the 00z WRF-NMM has a 0.50"+ bulleyes directly over me. Bullzeye for central macomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Anyways, to get back on topic... I'm not sure if it's an error or not but I'm prety much the only point grid forecast in Northern Wayne County that has 1-3" versus 2-4" (surrounded in every direction by 2-4"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Id say a more accurate statement is "if the only thing that really matters to you is big snowstorms, its been quite boring". Because I am a fan of big snowstorms, but a bigger fan of winter, and snow falling almost every day and constant snowcover and cold = perfect. But agree, to each his own. Regardless any way you want to slice it, January is going to end up with well above normal snowfall. Have had 39.1" of snow at the NWS office 6 miles form my house, so that is what i use as my total too since it's usually the same as i get. this has been a weird winter for me. As far as snow on the ground, according to a local Met here, it's been a constant snowcover 93% of the time since Dec 1st. I feel nickle and dimed to death tho. i am itching so bad for a good snow storm. Wondering if it is going to happen this winter. all that said, i have enjoyed the snowcover and frequents snows. Since dec 1st, have had snow 45 days, which has been nice. Still overall not happy with this Winter even tho I went to South bend and was able to see the epic snow they had. I just want one good storm and i will go into Spring mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 For me it's not a question of what we got but how we got it. SSC said it best before. It's one of those above averge months that still leave much to be desired for some. Somewhat like how you graduated college (which is good) but you still didn't experience an actual college lifestyle. Isn't that how you felt in msot of 2007-2008 when it came to snowcover? But yeah, if you enjoy nickel & dimes then it was the perfect month. Well 2007-08 was the perfect example of how I do enjoy snowstorms AND snowcover. I was very upset every time our snowpack was torched away, but then within a day or two or three it was right back because we kept getting storms. If we could guarentee a winter like that again, TRUST me Id be all for it and willing to take the snowpack destroying torches IF I knew another storm was a day or two away. But honestly, dont know if we can ever get that lucky again lol. Itd be like lightning striking the same place twice. Its very rare to luck out every time you lose snowpack with immediate replenishment. Usually sometimes you get the torch, lose the snow, then have to go a week or more with bare frigid ground, which is why I hate torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Have had 39.1" of snow at the NWS office 6 miles form my house, so that is what i use as my total too since it's usually the same as i get. this has been a weird winter for me. As far as snow on the ground. According to a local Met here, it's been a constant snowcover 93% of the time since Dec 1st. I feel nickle and dimed to death tho. i am itching so bad for a good snow storm. Wondering if it is going to happen this winter. all that said, i have enjoyed the snowcover and frequents snows. Since dec 1st, have had snow 45 days, which has been nice. Still overall not happy with this Winter even tho I went to South bend and was able to see the epic snow they had. I just want one good storm and i will go into Spring mode. Agreed. I would probably forget how nickel & dimey this winter was if we can just get one big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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