toronto blizzard Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still in question where the best swath of synoptic snow is going to setup, but even if it ends up missing Toronto to the SW the LES potential on 080-090 winds is going to more than make up for it. Do we stand a good chance at good LES form east winds saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 Do we stand a good chance at good LES form east winds saturday? It's still early, but there are some signals showing up that would point to a similar scenario to 3 Saturdays ago, except maybe this time a dominant single band could be embedded within general synoptic snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's still early, but there are some signals showing up that would point to a similar scenario to 3 Saturdays ago, except maybe this time a dominant single band could be embedded within general synoptic snow. :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 LOT EVEN MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE FARTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG AREA...AND THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN SOME DISARRAY AS TO THE SMALLER SCALE PHASING OF VORT ENERGY WITHIN THIS SHORT WAVE...THOUGH 12Z RUNS OF GFS/SREF AND ECMWF ALL COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND ALTHOUGH A TAD SLOWER DO MAINTAIN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS GFS RUNS. THEREFORE HAVE RELIED ON BLENDED SOLUTION FROM THESE THREE MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN A BAND OF HIGHER QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IND BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DEPICT FAIRLY FOCUSED PERIOD OF FORCING/OMEGA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD...STRONGEST OVER NORTHEASTERN CWA...WITH CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN OTHERWISE SHALLOW FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. COBB PRECIP OUTPUT SUGGESTS AVERAGE SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 16:1...WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID QPF...SUGGESTING 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR REASONABLE THERE. AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAIL OFF TO LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Bufkit for 12z is putting up 4-6" for CLE and 2-4 across central OH for the friday clipper. Wow. That would by far double CLE's largest system snow event this winter if verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Snow depth has settled to about 4" (though with the bottom glacier the snowpacks water content is still ~0.6"), and DTX is saying 1-2" tomorrow and 2-4" Saturday. Bring on the clippers!!! (and a possible big storm next week ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 would have to go with a 1-3" call if this were to verify. some spots of .20"+ liquid with ratios around 15:1 looks to be a quick hitting period of SN during the late morning hours into the afternoon. possibly between both rush hours?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 NAM not as impressive with the 2nd clipper compared to the 18z run. Looks like the sfc low is losing 2-3mb/6 hours as it treks SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The models (GFS, GGEM and now NAM) have started to really crap out on this clipper as it heads into Michigan. I pray it's not the start of a trend (downward). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 NAM putting about 0.11" for LAF with the wave tomorrow. With any luck, maybe we can overachieve and get to 1.5"...and call it an even 12" for January here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Skillings model had 3"+ area wide and Caplan's new microcast model had 1-3" with a 4" bullseye from DKB to ARR...I'm not buying into those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The models (GFS, GGEM and now NAM) have started to really crap out on this clipper as it heads into Michigan. I pray it's not the start of a trend (downward). Models never really did much with either of them over MI except up in the UP a few days back when the models tracked it across central MI. On averages the models have been showing .10 to .15 for clipper 1 in SE MI and around .20 to .30 for clipper 2 out that way. That is ignoring the BS off runs. What they have done is converge. Looks like 1-2 for system 1 and 2-4 for system 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 looping this makes it look like a nighttime MCS diving southeast then south in the summer! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 NAM has a decent little hit for Chicago. Would be a nice 2-3" quick hitting event there. Looks like a dusting to maybe an inch here if we can overachieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Cant access the ncep site, but it looks like the models may have beefed up clipper #1 and toned down clipper #2 for here, just a bit. Total qpf for both clippers per GFS/NAM appears to be around 0.30". While qpf is slightly higher for clipper #2, ratios Id guess would be better for clipper #1. So in the end they may end up with close totals. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Cant access the ncep site, but it looks like the models may have beefed up clipper #1 and toned down clipper #2 for here, just a bit. Total qpf for both clippers per GFS/NAM appears to be around 0.30". While qpf is slightly higher for clipper #2, ratios Id guess would be better for clipper #1. So in the end they may end up with close totals. We shall see! NCEP lost power in Maryland due to the heavy, wet snow. lots of power outages over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 This potential is really starting to die. Could still be an inch or two synoptically, but any kind of "super clipper" talk should be safely disposed of in the trash can. LES potential for Toronto also not as good as it was yesterday. Weaker low means weaker gradient and a better chance anything that develops stays off shore. One thing that gives me hope is that the s/w responsible for this clipper attm is still over the Pacific and won't fully come on shore until after the 12z runs today. Therefore, there's at least faint hope that maybe the models are underestimating its strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 This potential is really starting to die. Could still be an inch or two synoptically, but any kind of "super clipper" talk should be safely disposed of in the trash can. LES potential for Toronto also not as good as it was yesterday. Weaker low means weaker gradient and a better chance anything that develops stays off shore. One thing that gives me hope is that the s/w responsible for this clipper attm is still over the Pacific and won't fully come on shore until after the 12z runs today. Therefore, there's at least faint hope that maybe the models are underestimating its strength. Eh, I think the super clipper talk was sort of abandon a few days ago when it split into 2 clippers. Either way, still decently pleased with the setup. DTX still calling for 1-2" today and 2-4" tomorrow night/Saturday morning. Today is a much weaker blob of snow, but looks like extreme southern MI and northern OH look to sneak over 0.10" qpf with 15-1 ratios, then while tomorrow nights clipper shows a slight weakening trend, it is the classic, and I mean CLASSIC clipper track/look for here, with about 0.2" qpf. Makes me jealous looking at how well the snowstorm right along the east coast overperformed last night, an epic winter for nyc area (though imagine the heartache of being in midstate NY seeing the coast get it time and time again and you get screwed)....however....add 3 to 6" to the current snowpack here with the 2 clippers and still potential for next week...a beautiful winter wonderland for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Eh, I think the super clipper talk was sort of abandon a few days ago when it split into 2 clippers. Either way, still decently pleased with the setup. DTX still calling for 1-2" today and 2-4" tomorrow night/Saturday morning. Today is a much weaker blob of snow, but looks like extreme southern MI and northern OH look to sneak over 0.10" qpf with 15-1 ratios, then while tomorrow nights clipper shows a slight weakening trend, it is the classic, and I mean CLASSIC clipper track/look for here, with about 0.2" qpf. Makes me jealous looking at how well the snowstorm right along the east coast overperformed last night, an epic winter for nyc area (though imagine the heartache of being in midstate NY seeing the coast get it time and time again and you get screwed)....however....add 3 to 6" to the current snowpack here with the 2 clippers and still potential for next week...a beautiful winter wonderland for sure If I had any control over the weather, I would have completely axed that first clipper. It completely dampens out the height field ahead of the second clipper, which allows it to shear out rather than dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If I had any control over the weather, I would have completely axed that first clipper. It completely dampens out the height field ahead of the second clipper, which allows it to shear out rather than dig. It's actually working out quite well for me. The first clipper looks to give me a quick 2-3" dump later today. The second clipper was consistently progged to be a miss to my north anyway. Maybe I can get my snowpack up to 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 It's actually working out quite well for me. The first clipper looks to give me a quick 2-3" dump later today. The second clipper was consistently progged to be a miss to my north anyway. Maybe I can get my snowpack up to 6". Pardon my selfishness. This setup works better in the sense that it spreads the "wealth" a lot more. Super-clipper idea would have had a narrow but intense area of snow me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Pardon my selfishness. This setup works better in the sense that it spreads the "wealth" a lot more. Super-clipper idea would have had a narrow but intense area of snow me thinks. Oh, no, that's okay. I'm the one being selfish. It was looking to be a good hit for MI and over to you and now, like you said, it looks to be a little for everyone. If I were in your shoes, I'd take a 6'+ storm if it screwed IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I know the "event" is ongoing, but the 12z NAM has seemingly spruced the QPF in up a little in Indiana and Ohio as this small clipper rolls through today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Oh, no, that's okay. I'm the one being selfish. It was looking to be a good hit for MI and over to you and now, like you said, it looks to be a little for everyone. If I were in your shoes, I'd take a 6'+ storm if it screwed IN. Actually, the way it *looks* to shape up is the best scenario for THIS part of Michigan anyway. We should see 1-2" with clipper #1 and 2-4" with clipper #2. When this clippers was originally progged as a "superclipper" it was a complete miss to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z nam= clipper cancel...maybe 1-2 for tomorrow...Feel like we went through this already last month? When wehad all of these clipper lined up-super nice pattern- and then one by one die by the time they reach Michigan, and then even the big storm, but it somehow dumps rain on us, just to ruin our snowpack. REPEAT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z nam= clipper cancel...maybe 1-2 for tomorrow...Feel like we went through this already last month? When wehad all of these clipper lined up-super nice pattern- and then one by one die by the time they reach Michigan, and then even the big storm, but it somehow dumps rain on us, just to ruin our snowpack. REPEAT! Every run the clipper has been weaker and weaker. On the bright side: Thats how the Jan 2004 storm started out like. It was a 2-3 inch call same track same everything. Computer models had only .15"-.25" of liquid and then... Snow continued for hours and 7-12 inches fell in SEMI dont get me wrong theres like 5% chance of this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z nam= clipper cancel...maybe 1-2 for tomorrow...Feel like we went through this already last month? When wehad all of these clipper lined up-super nice pattern- and then one by one die by the time they reach Michigan, and then even the big storm, but it somehow dumps rain on us, just to ruin our snowpack. REPEAT! Its not even onshore yet so to believe it was going to stay strong on the models is nonsense. It could have trended stronger but in the end most clippers are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Its not even onshore yet so to believe it was going to stay strong on the models is nonsense. It could have trended stronger but in the end most clippers are useless. thats bold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 thats bold We probably have had hundreds of clippers and the only memorable one we have was 7 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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