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End of January "clipper" threat


snowstormcanuck

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LOT

EVEN MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE FARTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG

AREA...AND THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT DIGS

SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN SOME DISARRAY AS TO THE SMALLER SCALE PHASING

OF VORT ENERGY WITHIN THIS SHORT WAVE...THOUGH 12Z RUNS OF GFS/SREF

AND ECMWF ALL COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND ALTHOUGH A TAD SLOWER

DO MAINTAIN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS GFS RUNS. THEREFORE HAVE

RELIED ON BLENDED SOLUTION FROM THESE THREE MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN A

BAND OF HIGHER QPF ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IND BEGINNING

THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS/TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DEPICT

FAIRLY FOCUSED PERIOD OF FORCING/OMEGA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY

AFTERNOON PERIOD...STRONGEST OVER NORTHEASTERN CWA...WITH

CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN OTHERWISE SHALLOW FAVORABLE

DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. COBB PRECIP OUTPUT SUGGESTS AVERAGE

SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS AROUND 16:1...WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF

LIQUID QPF...SUGGESTING 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR REASONABLE

THERE. AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAIL OFF TO LESS THAN AN INCH

ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FA.

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The models (GFS, GGEM and now NAM) have started to really crap out on this clipper as it heads into Michigan.

I pray it's not the start of a trend (downward).

Models never really did much with either of them over MI except up in the UP a few days back when the models tracked it across central MI. On averages the models have been showing .10 to .15 for clipper 1 in SE MI and around .20 to .30 for clipper 2 out that way. That is ignoring the BS off runs.

What they have done is converge. Looks like 1-2 for system 1 and 2-4 for system 2.

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Cant access the ncep site, but it looks like the models may have beefed up clipper #1 and toned down clipper #2 for here, just a bit. Total qpf for both clippers per GFS/NAM appears to be around 0.30". While qpf is slightly higher for clipper #2, ratios Id guess would be better for clipper #1. So in the end they may end up with close totals. We shall see!

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Cant access the ncep site, but it looks like the models may have beefed up clipper #1 and toned down clipper #2 for here, just a bit. Total qpf for both clippers per GFS/NAM appears to be around 0.30". While qpf is slightly higher for clipper #2, ratios Id guess would be better for clipper #1. So in the end they may end up with close totals. We shall see!

NCEP lost power in Maryland due to the heavy, wet snow. lots of power outages over there.

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This potential is really starting to die. Could still be an inch or two synoptically, but any kind of "super clipper" talk should be safely disposed of in the trash can. LES potential for Toronto also not as good as it was yesterday. Weaker low means weaker gradient and a better chance anything that develops stays off shore.

One thing that gives me hope is that the s/w responsible for this clipper attm is still over the Pacific and won't fully come on shore until after the 12z runs today. Therefore, there's at least faint hope that maybe the models are underestimating its strength.

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This potential is really starting to die. Could still be an inch or two synoptically, but any kind of "super clipper" talk should be safely disposed of in the trash can. LES potential for Toronto also not as good as it was yesterday. Weaker low means weaker gradient and a better chance anything that develops stays off shore.

One thing that gives me hope is that the s/w responsible for this clipper attm is still over the Pacific and won't fully come on shore until after the 12z runs today. Therefore, there's at least faint hope that maybe the models are underestimating its strength.

Eh, I think the super clipper talk was sort of abandon a few days ago when it split into 2 clippers. Either way, still decently pleased with the setup. DTX still calling for 1-2" today and 2-4" tomorrow night/Saturday morning. Today is a much weaker blob of snow, but looks like extreme southern MI and northern OH look to sneak over 0.10" qpf with 15-1 ratios, then while tomorrow nights clipper shows a slight weakening trend, it is the classic, and I mean CLASSIC clipper track/look for here, with about 0.2" qpf. Makes me jealous looking at how well the snowstorm right along the east coast overperformed last night, an epic winter for nyc area (though imagine the heartache of being in midstate NY seeing the coast get it time and time again and you get screwed)....however....add 3 to 6" to the current snowpack here with the 2 clippers and still potential for next week...a beautiful winter wonderland for sure

:snowman:

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Eh, I think the super clipper talk was sort of abandon a few days ago when it split into 2 clippers. Either way, still decently pleased with the setup. DTX still calling for 1-2" today and 2-4" tomorrow night/Saturday morning. Today is a much weaker blob of snow, but looks like extreme southern MI and northern OH look to sneak over 0.10" qpf with 15-1 ratios, then while tomorrow nights clipper shows a slight weakening trend, it is the classic, and I mean CLASSIC clipper track/look for here, with about 0.2" qpf. Makes me jealous looking at how well the snowstorm right along the east coast overperformed last night, an epic winter for nyc area (though imagine the heartache of being in midstate NY seeing the coast get it time and time again and you get screwed)....however....add 3 to 6" to the current snowpack here with the 2 clippers and still potential for next week...a beautiful winter wonderland for sure

:snowman:

If I had any control over the weather, I would have completely axed that first clipper. It completely dampens out the height field ahead of the second clipper, which allows it to shear out rather than dig.

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If I had any control over the weather, I would have completely axed that first clipper. It completely dampens out the height field ahead of the second clipper, which allows it to shear out rather than dig.

It's actually working out quite well for me. The first clipper looks to give me a quick 2-3" dump later today. The second clipper was consistently progged to be a miss to my north anyway. Maybe I can get my snowpack up to 6".

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It's actually working out quite well for me. The first clipper looks to give me a quick 2-3" dump later today. The second clipper was consistently progged to be a miss to my north anyway. Maybe I can get my snowpack up to 6".

:( Pardon my selfishness. This setup works better in the sense that it spreads the "wealth" a lot more. Super-clipper idea would have had a narrow but intense area of snow me thinks.

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:( Pardon my selfishness. This setup works better in the sense that it spreads the "wealth" a lot more. Super-clipper idea would have had a narrow but intense area of snow me thinks.

Oh, no, that's okay. I'm the one being selfish. It was looking to be a good hit for MI and over to you and now, like you said, it looks to be a little for everyone. If I were in your shoes, I'd take a 6'+ storm if it screwed IN. :)

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Oh, no, that's okay. I'm the one being selfish. It was looking to be a good hit for MI and over to you and now, like you said, it looks to be a little for everyone. If I were in your shoes, I'd take a 6'+ storm if it screwed IN. :)

Actually, the way it *looks* to shape up is the best scenario for THIS part of Michigan anyway. We should see 1-2" with clipper #1 and 2-4" with clipper #2. When this clippers was originally progged as a "superclipper" it was a complete miss to my north.

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12z nam= clipper cancel...maybe 1-2 for tomorrow...Feel like we went through this already last month? When wehad all of these clipper lined up-super nice pattern- and then one by one die by the time they reach Michigan, and then even the big storm, but it somehow dumps rain on us, just to ruin our snowpack. REPEAT!

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12z nam= clipper cancel...maybe 1-2 for tomorrow...Feel like we went through this already last month? When wehad all of these clipper lined up-super nice pattern- and then one by one die by the time they reach Michigan, and then even the big storm, but it somehow dumps rain on us, just to ruin our snowpack. REPEAT!

Every run the clipper has been weaker and weaker.

On the bright side: Thats how the Jan 2004 storm started out like. It was a 2-3 inch call same track same everything. Computer models had only .15"-.25" of liquid and then... Snow continued for hours and 7-12 inches fell in SEMI dont get me wrong theres like 5% chance of this happening.

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12z nam= clipper cancel...maybe 1-2 for tomorrow...Feel like we went through this already last month? When wehad all of these clipper lined up-super nice pattern- and then one by one die by the time they reach Michigan, and then even the big storm, but it somehow dumps rain on us, just to ruin our snowpack. REPEAT!

Its not even onshore yet so to believe it was going to stay strong on the models is nonsense. It could have trended stronger but in the end most clippers are useless.

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