Lee Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 well a certain well known forecaster from there has been touting big snows in western VA for a while, and I have to disagree, but rather than say anything, its probably just best to let it ride. I'm sticking to this forecast, and if it busts it busts, but its really hard to say what happens after 18 hours, but the RUC doesn't look good for some areas east of the APPs imo, but I know that goes against RGEM and NAM, GFS to a large degree. I just don't like how the 5H is so far north (or atleast RUC progs it) and that can't bode well if your so close to it, and its not well developed at all, so I'm very doubtful of western VA getting a big snow on the backside. I guess its possible the surface low suddenly bombs in just the right spot though that it enhances the 7H band around western VA, but I'm extremely skeptical of that. I just looked again at RGEM and its way off already. Robert, you still have me right at the border of the snowfall. Even if the RUC "wins", it looks like maybe a 1-4 inch wet snowfall for this area. Nothing big but, at least some. Of course for most on here. let's hope the Ruc Sucks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Robert, you still have me right at the border of the snowfall. Even if the RUC "wins", it looks like maybe a 1-4 inch wet snowfall for this area. Nothing big but, at least some. Of course for most on here. let's hope the Ruc Sucks!!! You still could get clipped by that band tomorrow, but I have questions about how strong it will be there and crossing the mountains. If the band had come at sw VA from w. NC I think it would really have been in your favor for enhanced snow, but coming across from ne TN or ern. KY, I am doubtful now. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 well a certain well known forecaster from there has been touting big snows in western VA for a while, and I have to disagree, but rather than say anything, its probably just best to let it ride. I'm sticking to this forecast, and if it busts it busts, but its really hard to say what happens after 18 hours, but the RUC doesn't look good for some areas east of the APPs imo, but I know that goes against RGEM and NAM, GFS to a large degree. I just don't like how the 5H is so far north (or atleast RUC progs it) and that can't bode well if your so close to it, and its not well developed at all, so I'm very doubtful of western VA getting a big snow on the backside. I guess its possible the surface low suddenly bombs in just the right spot though that it enhances the 7H band around western VA, but I'm extremely skeptical of that. I just looked again at RGEM and its way off already. For the heck / fun of it, I say western VA does get a good hit of snow out of this. Every model I see throws a strengthening 500mb vort max into NE NC / SE VA. That, combined with the 700mb look implies to me a good hit there. I see how the RUC is trending, but I still think this upper low doesn't keep sliding more and more north. I think what the 12z models runs showed with the upper features will be very close to the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 For the heck / fun of it, I say western VA does get a good hit of snow out of this. Every model I see throws a strengthening 500mb vort max into NE NC / SE VA. That, combined with the 700mb look implies to me a good hit there. I see how the RUC is trending, but I still think this upper low doesn't keep sliding more and more north. I think what the 12z models runs showed with the upper features will be very close to the outcome. IMO, what happens with the def. band in about 18 hours it will be in northeast TN and eastern Ky(still rain there though) and once it jumps the chain it will re-develop somewhere near central VA and attach to the strenghtening of the 5H system and then be a bigger hit there and up to DC and northeastward, so thats bad timing of how all the features interact in the lee areas of the Apps. I may be wrong though time will tell for sure. Its a complicated evolving setup, and doesn't happen too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I just noticed your map has an extra shading of darker green in the counties around So. Pines. Is this indicative of "extra" heavy rain? Sorry for the late response but yeah for an extra boat load of fail. God this storm sucks beyond belief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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