FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here's my first call dealing with where I think snow could happen. No guarantees, especially in this one with its warmer than usual cutoff, but like all strong 5H centers, I'd be "surprised" if there are no surprises. Someone will get hefty snow totals quick on the northwest side of the system as it tracks northeastward from Alabama through the Carolinas. Obviously this far out, the track may be adjusted as time goes along, with discrepancies still showing up. The ECMWF and GGEm are more inland and favor much more snow in areas west of the Apps, and the NAM and GFS are further east, the the 5H is actually similar and most have comma head associated with the 7H and 850/5H system as it travels from northeast Al, to n. Ga and into the Carolinas. If the westerly track is true, then the APPs would wait until Wednesday to start the snow, but if further east then the Mtns would start much earlier and have higher totals. I still don't know which is correct. All in all, here's my first call. I'll do another one later when I think its more safe to begin fine tuning. Basically the north half of Miss. and Alabama and southern half of Tenn should be in snow Tuesday and Tuesday night, before it slides east to eastern Tn/N. GA mtns, /WNC mtns early Wednesday morning.If a westerly track emerged, then most of eastern 2/3 of TN would be hit very hard with wet snow. During the day Wednesday is when the models strengthen the 5H low quickly as it heads to near CLT and then to eastern NC, while the surface low is strengthening off the Delmarva. During the day will be hard to snow in the Piedmont of NC and thats the shakiest part of my forecast , where I have little confidence at this range, compared to the Apps, west. But it can happen if things come together just right with heavy rates/cold enough air aloft/sfc, etc. Theres always some surprises with these things and one area I'd watch is central Miss/Ala to north GA maybe even around ATL, and again in eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good call as we stand right now. Those with some Elevation should be great. What are your thoughts on that on the east side. 1,500 -2,000 and above? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good call as we stand right now. Those with some Elevation should be great. What are your thoughts on that on the east side. 1,500 -2,000 and above? Probably a good call, but I still have hope a bit farther south if the Euro is correct- I still think that perhaps the northern part of the ATL metro could see a changeover in the comma head of the upper low is overhead or just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well I'm here in N.Foothills near Mt.Airy about 1100-1200' in elevation. But that 850 track looks like a perfect track for snow here but I don't know I think my temps will be in the 32-36 range but 850s maybe a little to warm, man it's close..... But I think you have a good map out atm ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Those arent really call maps. Call maps need to include amounts or no need for them. Out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Those arent really call maps. Call maps need to include amounts or no need for them. Out! Boy I sure hope this is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here's my first call dealing with where I think snow could happen. No guarantees, especially in this one with its warmer than usual cutoff, but like all strong 5H centers, I'd be "surprised" if there are no surprises. Someone will get hefty snow totals quick on the northwest side of the system as it tracks northeastward from Alabama through the Carolinas. Obviously this far out, the track may be adjusted as time goes along, with discrepancies still showing up. The ECMWF and GGEm are more inland and favor much more snow in areas west of the Apps, and the NAM and GFS are further east, the the 5H is actually similar and most have comma head associated with the 7H and 850/5H system as it travels from northeast Al, to n. Ga and into the Carolinas. If the westerly track is true, then the APPs would wait until Wednesday to start the snow, but if further east then the Mtns would start much earlier and have higher totals. I still don't know which is correct. All in all, here's my first call. I'll do another one later when I think its more safe to begin fine tuning. Basically the north half of Miss. and Alabama and southern half of Tenn should be in snow Tuesday and Tuesday night, before it slides east to eastern Tn/N. GA mtns, /WNC mtns early Wednesday morning.If a westerly track emerged, then most of eastern 2/3 of TN would be hit very hard with wet snow. During the day Wednesday is when the models strengthen the 5H low quickly as it heads to near CLT and then to eastern NC, while the surface low is strengthening off the Delmarva. During the day will be hard to snow in the Piedmont of NC and thats the shakiest part of my forecast , where I have little confidence at this range, compared to the Apps, west. But it can happen if things come together just right with heavy rates/cold enough air aloft/sfc, etc. Theres always some surprises with these things and one area I'd watch is central Miss/Ala to north GA maybe even around ATL, and again in eastern NC. So,if it DOES snow on the backside of the storm, won't it be too wet to accumulate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Those arent really call maps. Call maps need to include amounts or no need for them. Out! They took the time to make them, and that gives them the right to do whatever the hell they want. 1st call, or prelim thought maps almost never include totals btw, in case you missed that. Looks good Robert and Jeremy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Those arent really call maps. Call maps need to include amounts or no need for them. Out! theres no way I'd put out numbers yet. Heck we don't even know if its going to snow for sure yet, I just outlined my best place its possible, Hope I didn't mislead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wondering if the cold air has frozen some people's brain cells. This board has been a wasteland the last 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here's my first call dealing with where I think snow could happen. No guarantees, especially in this one with its warmer than usual cutoff, but like all strong 5H centers, I'd be "surprised" if there are no surprises. Excellent call and sound reasoning. Your map is spot on at the moment and as you pointed out it will most likely have to be sketched/fine tunned when we get alot closer. Tough pill to swallow with a juicy track like this in Jan, not having more cold air. But thankfully weve had some fun already this winter and have a couple more chances right around the corner. I just hope we will atleast get the big qpf, cause we desperatly need to start building up before The new annual dry season returns for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 So,if it DOES snow on the backside of the storm, won't it be too wet to accumulate? not necessarily. If its hard enough, it can accumulate. But during the daytime, and with surface air temps probably mid 30's, its going to be hard to do so, but again look at last March storm, and the one before it, they both had some spots getting accum. on the ground, after a lot of rain, its all about rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 not necessarily. If its hard enough, it can accumulate. But during the daytime, and with surface air temps probably mid 30's, its going to be hard to do so, but again look at last March storm, and the one before it, they both had some spots getting accum. on the ground, after a lot of rain, its all about rates. This snow wouldl probably not stick around very long in any event, I would be satisfied with just seeing heavy snow fall for an hour or two (with thunder perhaps???) - not too many places outside the mountains will see too much stick with this one I am afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thanks Robert and Eyewall. Hope both of your maps verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 HaHa, I'm still just 15 miles east of your heavy snow possible. lol Looks good man !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thank you Frosty at least you are not in the middle of the green like me. The only way that is good is in a game of Golf. Thank you to everyone else also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks about what I think as of now. The cold air just doesn't appear to be there, as much as I'd like to invent phantom high pressures up north of us. Regardless of 850s, boundary layer temperatures still appear to be roasting even with OTS tracks. This could be a very good, heavy wet snow in the higher elevations of the Appalachians, though, and would be one I'd love to experience up there unless something like the 18z NAM verifies and not enough QPF makes it out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Those arent really call maps. Call maps need to include amounts or no need for them. Out! :gun_bandana: Wow.....stupidity knows no boundaries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 :gun_bandana: Wow.....stupidity knows no boundaries Lol, the human psychology surrounding frozen precip. is constantly of interest, though often unfathomable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thank you Frosty at least you are not in the middle of the green like me. The only way that is good is in a game of Golf. Thank you to everyone else also. I just noticed your map has an extra shading of darker green in the counties around So. Pines. Is this indicative of "extra" heavy rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 :gun_bandana: Wow.....stupidity knows no boundaries Well if someone hadn't deleted my post from earlier you would know it was sarcasm. Jeebus, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So..Robert...if the surface low deepens will it draw in the upper low closer? Trying to figure out how to get on the north side of the ull. Just the surface low track moving south won't necessarily bring the upper low south, will it? The upper trough and the surface low are related, but are they holding hands? I know we don't want them to stack, but I wouldn't mind seeing the upper low track over Columbus, or Macon. I know it is about pressures, but after that I just start drooling, and lose it Thanks, T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 So..Robert...if the surface low deepens will it draw in the upper low closer? Trying to figure out how to get on the north side of the ull. Just the surface low track moving south won't necessarily bring the upper low south, will it? The upper trough and the surface low are related, but are they holding hands? I know we don't want them to stack, but I wouldn't mind seeing the upper low track over Columbus, or Macon. I know it is about pressures, but after that I just start drooling, and lose it Thanks, T well the 5H low does close off very near you it looks like. But at that point the good RH is with the 7H and 850 low which is to your north, so that won't help you since the process is in the beginning stages. By then the surface low won't matter so much, probably the system will have two main areas of precip: 1 is with the sfc over eastern Carolinas and the other will be nw of the 5H which is probably going to be either TN/Al/GA/NC area....roughly southern Apps. Does that help? But the models could be off a few miles and you could get a surprise, but don't plan on that, unless the models start trending a lot stronger with the 5H and further west to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 well the 5H low does close off very near you it looks like. But at that point the good RH is with the 7H and 850 low which is to your north, so that won't help you since the process is in the beginning stages. By then the surface low won't matter so much, probably the system will have two main areas of precip: 1 is with the sfc over eastern Carolinas and the other will be nw of the 5H which is probably going to be either TN/Al/GA/NC area....roughly southern Apps. Does that help? But the models could be off a few miles and you could get a surprise, but don't plan on that, unless the models start trending a lot stronger with the 5H and further west to start. Thanks, Robert. I need a deeper trough Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Comparing the March 2009 storm and this one from 48 to 60 hours out, the NAM then was a little too far south and east of the actual verification at 7H with the deformation band but was dead on at 24 hours out. The RGEM also was very good at 48 hours. The trends now (48 hours for southern APPs) are for this to probably be a little further north and west than my map, so if the Euro comes in further north and west, I'll adjust. The NAM 12z is a big hit in northern Miss/srn Tenn, northern Ala, eastern Tn/Wrn NC, the northern Upstate and ne GA as those areas maximize the lift of UVV and feel the effects of the strongest 5H cutoff that is near the NC/SC border near CLT at 00z Thur. From there, it takes the shield of snow up into Virginia and across the Midatlantic. The GFS and GGEM and UKMET are all further north and west, going across much of Tennessee , eastern Ky and then across the Apps and into the MidAtlantic, clipping Nw NC and points northeast from there. So in the end, it will come down to where the best 7H lift and comma head develops and we have to watch where this develops, the current thinking is northern Mississippi, and see what effect the surface and upper features have on it as it develops and travels northeast. Here are some old images from the March 2009 storm, even with the NGM , which did fine. notice the 2009 storm was a little colder and especially more cutoff from the flow, with a better, cohesive look, and slightly south of the current progs: GFS deformation band 48 hour prog (March 2009) The ECMWF from 24 hours out handled the 7H very well for a global model as well ast the 5H system. Notice that one and this one are both progged to be near CLT or just east. EDIT as the Euro has just came out and is similar to the NAM in many respects with the 5h, surface and 7H moisture field. Its still going to take one more model run to get within the 48 hours of safety, and even then it may change, but if we get a tight cluster like we did in 2009 then I'd be almost certain or atleast closer to where to draw the axis of heavy snow areas. For now, I'd paint northern Miss, southern third of Tenn northeast including Nashville, all of east TN, northern Alabama, the mountains and foothlls of NC , southeast KY, and southwest VA as the best chance for snow fall, and the best rates of snowfall probably will occur when the 5H is at its strongest point very near CLT To RDU and tilting, in tandem with a tightening 7H omega RH deformation band for the western and especially northwestern part of NC and southwest VA and ne TN areas. For now, I'm leaning against northern GA and the Upstate and lower piedmont of NC but one very small shift south of everything means a totally different scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 The RUC is the model to follow now for Tenn and areas west of the Apps. The ULL is closing off much further north and west, and this will take the 850, surface and deformation band with it as well. Its not very well organized so that makes it hard to forecast amounts. I took GFS and NAM and EURO and tossed them out. I may not have went far enough north on the precip shield in southern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, where the strong lift on the NW side of the system and duration coupled with colder air means that area may have the best totals. Its hard to do a totals map in constantly changing storm environment and with ULL having banding, that further complicates it, but I could see areas around MEM and well west of BNA getting nearly 6" of wet snow, and probably further into western KY. Then the system gets sheared north and east and I'm not sure how well it holds together for eastern KY and into western VA, it will depend on how the 5H system develops and drags the 7h band with it crossing the Apps, but the system probably will get better organized once its east of western VA and hits DC and the MidAtlantic up the Northeast coast. But I played the more northwest approach which may spare DC atleast, but am uncertain about the Northeast coast. The def. band could graze much of Tenn later on but by then it will probably be enroute quickly to the northeast and would be a glancing blow and probably not well organized, as opposed to earlier thinking. The system doesn't get very organized aloft until its near the eastern seaboard. Same goes for western and northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I dare you to post that map in the MA forum...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I double dare YA ....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I dare you to post that map in the MA forum...LOL I double dare YA ....LOL well a certain well known forecaster from there has been touting big snows in western VA for a while, and I have to disagree, but rather than say anything, its probably just best to let it ride. I'm sticking to this forecast, and if it busts it busts, but its really hard to say what happens after 18 hours, but the RUC doesn't look good for some areas east of the APPs imo, but I know that goes against RGEM and NAM, GFS to a large degree. I just don't like how the 5H is so far north (or atleast RUC progs it) and that can't bode well if your so close to it, and its not well developed at all, so I'm very doubtful of western VA getting a big snow on the backside. I guess its possible the surface low suddenly bombs in just the right spot though that it enhances the 7H band around western VA, but I'm extremely skeptical of that. I just looked again at RGEM and its way off already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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