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MW/Lakes/OV November 2010 general disco

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Central/Western States

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Add me to that list :snowman: ...although your question is a tough one, as the winter of 1947-48 was an extreme situation. It's hard to imagine 3 months of snowcover with only 26.6" of total snow.

I love a good snowstorm as much as anyone, but its usually Hunter and I who sometimes get the reputation for putting white ground ahead of all that!

Yes 1947-48 is a very very extreme example, but I can think of no better example to pose to a snowcover lover. I personally would take over 70" of snow, but Id probably prefer a 50"-60" winter with deep snowcover from Nov-Apr.

1947-48 days with 1"+ snowcover at Detroit

Nov 27-Dec 1

Dec 3-4

Dec 10-14

Dec 16-Feb 17

Mar 1-13

Despite the 89 days with snowcover, the max depth was only 5". That is some sustained cold!

Days with...

1"- 19

2"- 30

3"- 16

4"- 18

5"- 6

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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Man that's kinda a tough one, Josh.. 07-08 was pretty dam special for me and I doubt I'll ever see another winter like it again as long as I'm alive and in, MKE. A lot of us seen some pretty big short term mood alerting (to me) snowpacks wiped out that winter but thankfully there was almost always something down the pipe to track not long after.. I've only been on these weather forums since I think the season before 07 but I don't remember a whole lot of it.. And before that I never even knew there was our local AFD'S and NWS online for us all to see let alone forums for us with the sickness.. I just wasn't into PC'S until I reached around 30 yrs old so I was stuck with TWC and the News since I was about 5 I think it was.. I'd have to ask the parents tho - maybe it was earlier and I wouldn't doubt I was sucking my bottle down and watching it somehow... My cartoons were TWC and if that wasn't on it was The Price Is Right or Sports. Those 24 yrs in between the Internet I drove everybody nuts by always wanting to have TWC on lmost 24/7.. I didn't have cable in my room so I would sleep on the couch a lot with the patio light on and fall asleep probably around 2am with TWC going until somebody else woke up and flipped it on me in the morning lol. That was my alarm lol - I could wake up on the spot when they flicked off my weather channel.

Going back to your question... As much as I LOVE snowpack - I don't think there is anyway I could trade away 07-08 for the scenario you posed in SE, MI even. I'm still enough of a newbie to the boards and tracking storms with you all that I'm not ready to give up all the excitement and fun with you all for a 26.6" winter even if it meant near record snowcover days for the season.. Last yr was hard enough to take and I still managed close to 40" and decent snowcover.. My attitude would not be good if I had to watch most big storms miss south and nail the MA and NYC like last winter again..

Who knows man.. Maybe we both will be surprised and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that this winter doesn't end of being a decent snowcover winter despite how negative I sound about the incoming winter a lot of the time.. I'm just kind of trying to prep myself in case of a disaster winter I suppose. After the quick end to winter, the hot summer and warm fall with everybody around town still gushing how great its been I'm just poison ivy invested itching for winter to come and put them back in their misery. I have to keep reminding myself to look at the calendar and the post on this board that this kind of weather is not unusual leading in to La Nina winters.

Yeah as mentioned above, the 1947-48 scenario was so freaky thats why I used that as the EXTREME example. There was actually a crippling ice storm that literally paralyzed SE MI on Jan 1st, youd have to see what happened in MKE for that one, other than that biggest snowstorm of winter was just 4.4". This is that winter where NYC got like a 26" storm on Christmas I believe too. Yes, 07-08 was special. Didnt you see close to 100" iyby? Had 78.2" imby with 69 days of 1"+ snowcover, peak depth however "only" 10" on several different occasions because, as you said, the damn thaws would come, last JUST long enough to wipe snowcover out, then in a day or two it was right back. It was the next year where mid-jan 2009 saw depths of 13-16", yet that winter finished with 62 days of snowcover, 7 less than 2007-08. Even last year imby I had 58 days of snowcover. Thats "only" 11 days less than 2007-08. But the excitement of 2009-10 doesnt even register on the same planet as 2007-08. So basically, we weenies truly need something that is hard to come by even in our northern location. A very snowy, stormy, and completely snowcovered winter!

With La Nina, nothing is out of the realm of possibility. Just dont forget one thing, even in years where we get cold/snowy Novembers, winter NEVER sets in "for good" this early. Even in our most harsh of winters. So as much as we are dying for snow, just dont forget that it IS only mid-November!

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Just an observation, but there was a storm darn near identical to this one (tonight's apps. runner) in 2008 during the November 13th - 16th time frame.

Of course we didn't have another storm like it that entire winter season. :arrowhead:

Something similar in March 2008 too, huh? dry.gif

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

If you want to believe the 18z GFS, looks like signs of winter begin next week with an impressive cold shot shortly thereafter....but after all it is the 18z GFS... :)

There has been signs of cold starting next week for a while, even if it pushes it back some to the beginning of next month, the cold is coming, temps are getting real cold over Alaska and northern/western Canada.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

Reading the SNE thread, the mets there seem to on board with a wintery pattern change late next week. So this may not just be a figment of our weenie imaginations.

Yeah with the EPO and the NAO going into the tank, it would be hard not to believe some cold breaks loose.

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The_Global_Warmer

The_Global_Warmer

Posted
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There has been signs of cold starting next week for a while, even if it pushes it back some to the beginning of next month, the cold is coming, temps are getting real cold over Alaska and northern/western Canada.

Same thing with the cold took place in Nov/Dec 1st of 2006.

IIRC the models were hundreds of miles off with the LL cold air. To the point that within 12 hours they predicted 37-39F where I live and we dropped to 28F at the start of the sleet and ZR and never went above it.

we were supposed to get rain, then sleet then 10-12 inches of snow.

we ended up with all sleet, then zr, then sleet, then heavy snow and 6 inches at the end with power outages for over a week.

I believe LAF or just west of them got crushed.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Same thing with the cold took place in Nov/Dec 1st of 2006.

IIRC the models were hundreds of miles off with the LL cold air. To the point that within 12 hours they predicted 37-39F where I live and we dropped to 28F at the start of the sleet and ZR and never went above it.

we were supposed to get rain, then sleet then 10-12 inches of snow.

we ended up with all sleet, then zr, then sleet, then heavy snow and 6 inches at the end with power outages for over a week.

I believe LAF or just west of them got crushed.

Not here. I'm not sure if we even saw flake from that storm. That was the ultimate NW trender and a bitter pill to swallow. Payback came two months later though.

PIA and that general area were the winners with that storm. http://www.crh.noaa....x/?n=2006-Dec01

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

Not here. I'm not sure if we even saw flake from that storm. That was the ultimate NW trender and a bitter pill to swallow. Payback came two months later though.

PIA and that general area were the winners with that storm. http://www.crh.noaa....x/?n=2006-Dec01

what a fun storm that was, was forecasted to get 10-16" that evening, had sleet till changing over to snow during the night and getting 7" of snow.

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patrick7032

patrick7032

Posted
Posted

No surprise there....GFS always does that beyond f180 due to the resolution change in its parametrization and in the numerical scheme. The grid scale is increased and has less time steps in its Taylor Series at that point.It will be interesting to see the vort pattern once this gets under the f192 range where it has better resolution.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

Posted
Posted

It only got up to the mid 40's today and we got a little over an inch of rain. Makes me excited for winter. Even though this will happen more times than snow this winter.

Isn't Murray near Moor's Resort? lol used to go there every summer for about 4 straight. they actually got hit by a tornado on 11/15/05, which I'm sure you already knew lol.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

gfs_pcp_204l.gif

That cute little vort decided to slide east, tap the gom and explode precip into the cold sector, which in that set up would be much colder.

A lot of weather needs to happen, I wouldn't get that excited over one GFS run just yet. The first trough on the W coast through 144 hours needs to break down and eject upper level energy eastward, and that is a complex process and highly sensitive to initial conditions...

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Not here. I'm not sure if we even saw flake from that storm. That was the ultimate NW trender and a bitter pill to swallow. Payback came two months later though.

PIA and that general area were the winners with that storm. http://www.crh.noaa....x/?n=2006-Dec01

I absolutely hate that event even though I ended up chasing it.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

There has been signs of cold starting next week for a while, even if it pushes it back some to the beginning of next month, the cold is coming, temps are getting real cold over Alaska and northern/western Canada.

Yeah tonight Skilling was pointing out some temps in the -30s over Alaska and northern Canada. That cold air has been allowed to build for so long it's only a matter of time before it roars south.

Had a few sprinkles this evening, otherwise today was pretty nice. Lots of sunshine. Hit 55.

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