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MW/Lakes/OV November 2010 general disco

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Central/Western States

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Never snows in Nov anymore it seems. I'll take that start If I end up with close to 60.7" like 98/9.. I'm already conceding a ****ty snow pack winter. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised otherwise.

Hunter, you and I are the big snowcover mongers on this board. However, I do have a feeling with the usual volatile nature of a Nina winter and its ups and downs, this wont be a winter with a constant snowcover, however, once again, we should see more big snowstorms than normal, ala 2007-08/2008-09.

Just out of curiosity, a question that I can ask only you, because as I said you and I are the snowcover lovers on this board. At Detroit, by FAR the whitest winter for the least amount of snow was 1947-48. In that winter, Detroit had a grand total of 26.6" of snow (pathetic but actually par for the course in the sucky '40s). This stands today as the 25th least snowy winter on record (since 1880). However, thanks to persistent cold and a New Years ice storm, snowcover was locked in more or less the entire winter (89 days with 1"+ snowcover, which ties w/ 1981-82 for the 3rd "whitest" winter since 1900). Question is...would you take a winter like that over, say 2007-08 when Detroit saw 71.7" of snow but "only" 63 days with 1"+ snowcover? Thats 45.1" MORE snow but almost 4 weeks LESS of white ground.

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beavis1729

beavis1729

Posted
Posted

Hunter, you and I are the big snowcover mongers on this board. However, I do have a feeling with the usual volatile nature of a Nina winter and its ups and downs, this wont be a winter with a constant snowcover, however, once again, we should see more big snowstorms than normal, ala 2007-08/2008-09.

Just out of curiosity, a question that I can ask only you, because as I said you and I are the snowcover lovers on this board. At Detroit, by FAR the whitest winter for the least amount of snow was 1947-48. In that winter, Detroit had a grand total of 26.6" of snow (pathetic but actually par for the course in the sucky '40s). This stands today as the 25th least snowy winter on record (since 1880). However, thanks to persistent cold and a New Years ice storm, snowcover was locked in more or less the entire winter (89 days with 1"+ snowcover, which ties w/ 1981-82 for the 3rd "whitest" winter since 1900). Question is...would you take a winter like that over, say 2007-08 when Detroit saw 71.7" of snow but "only" 63 days with 1"+ snowcover? Thats 45.1" MORE snow but almost 4 weeks LESS of white ground.

Add me to that list :snowman: ...although your question is a tough one, as the winter of 1947-48 was an extreme situation. It's hard to imagine 3 months of snowcover with only 26.6" of total snow.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

Hunter, you and I are the big snowcover mongers on this board. However, I do have a feeling with the usual volatile nature of a Nina winter and its ups and downs, this wont be a winter with a constant snowcover, however, once again, we should see more big snowstorms than normal, ala 2007-08/2008-09.

Just out of curiosity, a question that I can ask only you, because as I said you and I are the snowcover lovers on this board. At Detroit, by FAR the whitest winter for the least amount of snow was 1947-48. In that winter, Detroit had a grand total of 26.6" of snow (pathetic but actually par for the course in the sucky '40s). This stands today as the 25th least snowy winter on record (since 1880). However, thanks to persistent cold and a New Years ice storm, snowcover was locked in more or less the entire winter (89 days with 1"+ snowcover, which ties w/ 1981-82 for the 3rd "whitest" winter since 1900). Question is...would you take a winter like that over, say 2007-08 when Detroit saw 71.7" of snow but "only" 63 days with 1"+ snowcover? Thats 45.1" MORE snow but almost 4 weeks LESS of white ground.

Man that's kinda a tough one, Josh.. 07-08 was pretty dam special for me and I doubt I'll ever see another winter like it again as long as I'm alive and in, MKE. A lot of us seen some pretty big short term mood alerting (to me) snowpacks wiped out that winter but thankfully there was almost always something down the pipe to track not long after.. I've only been on these weather forums since I think the season before 07 but I don't remember a whole lot of it.. And before that I never even knew there was our local AFD'S and NWS online for us all to see let alone forums for us with the sickness.. I just wasn't into PC'S until I reached around 30 yrs old so I was stuck with TWC and the News since I was about 5 I think it was.. I'd have to ask the parents tho - maybe it was earlier and I wouldn't doubt I was sucking my bottle down and watching it somehow... My cartoons were TWC and if that wasn't on it was The Price Is Right or Sports. Those 24 yrs in between the Internet I drove everybody nuts by always wanting to have TWC on lmost 24/7.. I didn't have cable in my room so I would sleep on the couch a lot with the patio light on and fall asleep probably around 2am with TWC going until somebody else woke up and flipped it on me in the morning lol. That was my alarm lol - I could wake up on the spot when they flicked off my weather channel.

Going back to your question... As much as I LOVE snowpack - I don't think there is anyway I could trade away 07-08 for the scenario you posed in SE, MI even. I'm still enough of a newbie to the boards and tracking storms with you all that I'm not ready to give up all the excitement and fun with you all for a 26.6" winter even if it meant near record snowcover days for the season.. Last yr was hard enough to take and I still managed close to 40" and decent snowcover.. My attitude would not be good if I had to watch most big storms miss south and nail the MA and NYC like last winter again..

Who knows man.. Maybe we both will be surprised and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that this winter doesn't end of being a decent snowcover winter despite how negative I sound about the incoming winter a lot of the time.. I'm just kind of trying to prep myself in case of a disaster winter I suppose. After the quick end to winter, the hot summer and warm fall with everybody around town still gushing how great its been I'm just poison ivy invested itching for winter to come and put them back in their misery. I have to keep reminding myself to look at the calendar and the post on this board that this kind of weather is not unusual leading in to La Nina winters.

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roardog

roardog

Posted
Posted

At least it looks like there will be some storminess and a big temp gradient over the region for the next week. It looks quite mild southeast of here and quite cold northwest of here. I guess that leaves my area right in between for a few days. I guess having a front wobble around the area is more interesting than sunshine day after day.

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

At least it looks like there will be some storminess and a big temp gradient over the region for the next week. It looks quite mild southeast of here and quite cold northwest of here. I guess that leaves my area right in between for a few days. I guess having a front wobble around the area is more interesting than sunshine day after day.

That's not to say sunshine isn't nice after weeks of overcast during the winter. :sun:

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daddylonglegs

daddylonglegs

Posted
Posted

Wethooker-

You me and Saukville should hook up Saturday morning and we can all share a treestand! I'll bring the guns and ammo, Saukville will bring the girls and you can bring the booze???

Fog here today... Wx is boring around here...not much happening... +4.1F for the month. December is going to hit us hard in the nads with cold air.

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snowlord81

snowlord81

Posted
Posted

clap.gif

41/34 and hazy here at noon. Almost has that feel in the air of just missing a snowstorm...although it'll be missing a rain storm this go around.

It feels like Im waiting on a snowstorm down here! Foggy, Overcast and Chilly here. Heres hoping we get alot more of these types of system deeper into winter, with alittle more cold air to go around!

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

D7-10 EURO maps not updating on the ECMWF main page. Would like to see what happens during this time period. From what I can tell looking at the 168 maps on PSU, a polar baroclinic zone is sinking through the MW and there's plenty of energy left in a deep W US trough that could get ejected out.

They're updated here.

http://raleighwx.ame...com/models.html

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Heavy, heavy disappointment. Although there's a weak wave in the TN valley D9-10, nothing ejecting out of that trough gets a chance to become amplified. Of course, 9-10 days out, that's probably where we'd want it.

I agree 100%. Although every season tends to have its own model biases, you have to think a "SE bias" or "NW trend" would have to be favored in a Nina winter.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

I agree 100%. Although every season tends to have its own model biases, you have to think a "SE bias" or "NW trend" would have to be favored in a Nina winter.

I'd agree except that hasn't Harry mentioned that the EURO underwent some sort of upgrade which will make the so called "NW trend" less likely? I guess we'll find out sooner rather than later. :)

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

I'd agree except that hasn't Harry mentioned that the EURO underwent some sort of upgrade which will make the so called "NW trend" less likely? I guess we'll find out sooner rather than later. :)

Well I guess even the old Euro wasn't that bad with respect to being too "SE biased". I should have clarified and referenced the GFS on my prior comment. Although it too went through an upgrade.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Well I guess even the old Euro wasn't that bad with respect to being too "SE biased". I should have clarified and referenced the GFS on my prior comment. Although it too went through an upgrade.

FWIW, so far this cold weather season EURO seems to be getting schooled. GFS was 100% on the money with that non-storm the first week of November, and the GGEM came out on top with the more amplified/further west solution wrt today's storm (EURO was more like the NAM initially).

Obviously, this is a non-scientific evalution of the EURO's recent performance. I'm sure somebody'll come along with that graph which plots model progs against actually H5 data and show that I'm completely wrong.

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mnweather

mnweather

Posted
Posted

Heavy, heavy disappointment. Although there's a weak wave in the TN valley D9-10, nothing ejecting out of that trough gets a chance to become amplified. Of course, 9-10 days out, that's probably where we want it.

I agree it is disappointing but maybe things will appear stronger in later runs. They better.

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mnweather

mnweather

Posted
Posted

After some busts of the last few years, I really don't care what the models say in the 84+hr timeframe when it comes to storms. Instead, I just look at trends and possibilities. Keeps one mind sane. By the time the hype reaches a nadir, you are fresh and ready to strike while everybody else is worn out from staying up to look at the evolution of a snowstorm from Oz Euro runs a week before lol.

You have a good point. The best snowstorms are the ones that pop up out of nowhere within a short period of time.

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