Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Although the band of precip doesn't extend quite as far northwest as I would've thought. It doesn't. And it's kicker-palooza coming in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 It doesn't. And it's kicker-palooza coming in from the west. Yes. Perhaps that is playing a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 As Midlo posted, Eastern is back up as read-only. Now's the time to get what you want off of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Tonight's Dr. No not as enthused with the Tue-Wed system as the GGEM and Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Tonight's Dr. No not as enthused with the Tue-Wed system as the GGEM and Ukie. But but, the Nogaps is, that has to count for something, probably -1 on confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 But but, the Nogaps is, that has to count for something, probably -1 on confidence. Geez it's that time of the year to check the NOGAPS too, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Geez it's that time of the year to check the NOGAPS too, isn't it? I check it for laughs, thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I check it for laughs, thats about it. I hear you. Of course I look at the DGEX, FIM, etc as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Good for MSP getting a mid November cement snow event. I lived there for 3 years and do remember seeing some snow in November, but it was closer to Thanksgiving. I never get too worked up about not seeing snow in November as our (northern IN) snow season is usually Dec 15 through Jan 31 (February is usually a dud for some reason). Although, areas just north and west of me may be able to get into some of what MSP just saw around Thanksgiving time. I am not buying the GEM/UKIE solution for this coming TUE/WED...although a system tracking a little further west than the GFS/ECMWF is definitely possible, with all rain expected. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Good for MSP getting a mid November cement snow event. I lived there for 3 years and do remember seeing some snow in November, but it was closer to Thanksgiving. I never get too worked up about not seeing snow in November as our (northern IN) snow season is usually Dec 15 through Jan 31 (February is usually a dud for some reason). Although, areas just north and west of me may be able to get into some of what MSP just saw around Thanksgiving time. I am not buying the GEM/UKIE solution for this coming TUE/WED...although a system tracking a little further west than the GFS/ECMWF is definitely possible, with all rain expected. I hope I'm wrong. Me and you both hope you are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 12z GFS paints another dry week for northern Illinois. Totally rips apart the midweek clipper. NAM holds a little more promise for that system. If the GFS is right, we'll go into late November without seeing our first flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 chance of flakes here this evening. 12z GFS looks interesting with that storm coming up through the OV around 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 chance of flakes here this evening. 12z GFS looks interesting with that storm coming up through the OV around 60 hours. Models certainly have trended stronger with it, but it appears all the cold air necessary for snow is going to be locked up further to the N & W. I'll be happy with just rain, it's been quite the boring November around these parts. In fact, so was last November. That's really rare. November is usually the stormiest month. And that's not just me saying that, I've heard a well respected met say that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Picked up a whole 0.01" today. Woo hoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 The 12 Z NAM and the 12 Z GFS are worlds apart concerning precip for the OV at 54 hrs.....We really need the GFS solution.. Although not as bad as Beau, but its dry enough here-------- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Wow, I believe you, but it seems to me like Novembers in the Northeastern fourth of the U.S. have been BORING and warm throughout the 2000-2010 decade. It seems to me almost like each season is taking longer and longer to begin. Models certainly have trended stronger with it, but it appears all the cold air necessary for snow is going to be locked up further to the N & W. I'll be happy with just rain, it's been quite the boring November around these parts. In fact, so was last November. That's really rare. November is usually the stormiest month. And that's not just me saying that, I've heard a well respected met say that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Wow, I believe you, but it seems to me like Novembers in the Northeastern fourth of the U.S. have been BORING and warm throughout the 2000-2010 decade. It seems to me almost like each season is taking longer and longer to begin. Can only speak for IMBY, but all 10 Novembers between 1999-2008 have had at least 2.00" of precip, 7 of 10 had at least 3.00" of precip, and 3 of 10 had at least 4.00" of precip. Only the last two have been exceptionally dry. Now, can I equate plentiful rainfall with "storminess". I don't know, but I can't think of a better way to gauge "storminess". As for snowfall, it's been variable. 2001-02 was delayed to mid December. The next year, 2002-03, we got started right after Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Euro with a nice torch starting next sat and brings some nice rain for beau on up through the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Euro with a nice torch starting next sat and brings some nice rain for beau on up through the OV. Pig ridge. At least it looks "cooler" for Turkey Day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Euro with a nice torch starting next sat and brings some nice rain for beau on up through the OV. D10 storm looks interesting, or too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 D10 storm looks interesting, or too warm? Probably a band of snow from down near St. Louis up to the southern tip of LM area based on 850's and thickness. 2M temps sub 35F...though it's at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 A few sprinkles here an hour or so ago. Pretty frustrating since temps are very cool just off the surface. The boundary layer was allowed to warm up pretty good with the morning sunshine, otherwise we may have seen our first flakes. That midweek system looks very interesting on the GFS. Hopefully it grabs colder air than what's shown now. Hopefully the NAM catches on with this system and becomes even more dynamic, much like it did with the last system. If that ends up happening then areas from Indiana to Michigan could maybe see some wet snow. I'm probably reaching here, but that's about what it's come to lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Probably a band of snow from down near St. Louis up to the southern tip of LM area based on 850's and thickness. 2M temps sub 35F...though it's at 12z. Danke schoen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 The 12 Z NAM and the 12 Z GFS are worlds apart concerning precip for the OV at 54 hrs.....We really need the GFS solution.. Although not as bad as Beau, but its dry enough here-------- Yep, pretty big disagreement between the NAM and basically every other model after hr. 48. GFS has a more baroclinically unstable trough causing the sfc low to bomb out over OH. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NAM jump ship with the 0z runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Yep, pretty big disagreement between the NAM and basically every other model after hr. 48. GFS has a more baroclinically unstable trough causing the sfc low to bomb out over OH. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NAM jump ship with the 0z runs tonight. In numerous station AFD's the NAM has been refered to as the outliar ( misspelling intended). I think you will be correct in that the NAM will give it up with the 0Z,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 In numerous station AFD's the NAM has been refered to as the outliar ( misspelling intended). I think you will be correct in that the NAM will give it up with the 0Z,, 15z SREFS are telling. Every member takes a strong system west of the mountains, ala the GFS. Nam is undoubtedly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 15z SREFS are telling. Every member takes a strong system west of the mountains, ala the GFS. Nam is undoubtedly wrong. Or could be the best model ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustin Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Or could be the best model ever. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 lolz Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Or could be the best model ever. I like my assessment of the NAM better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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