michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Has tapered to flurries. Total 0.4". Could have been more but there was partial melting/was very slushy. Measurable Nov. snow bodes well for the winter ahead. Congrats. And to all those in the midwest/lakes who have not yet seen measurable snow (which is a lot of us), one thing Ill say that Ive been saying over and over. Ive seen too many people make too much of measurable snow in November and what it means for the winter that lies ahead. And Im as into stats/climo/past weather as much as anybody. Lets say in year (a) you get 7 days of Nov snow, all a T, and in year (a2) you get one day of snow, a freak squall that drops 0.5" in 10 minutes. Does it mean that the winter following November (a2) will be better than the one following November (a)? Absolutely not. Will end the month most likely with a T here. Here is a ranking of all the years since I began measuring snow in 1995-96. I ranked them in order of SNOWIEST NOVEMBERS, not snowiest winters. My snowiest November came in my least snowy winter. .................Nov.....Season total 1997-98 --- 6.0" --- 27.2" 1996-97 --- 5.7" --- 35.9" 2005-06 --- 4.8" --- 41.9" 2002-03 --- 4.7" --- 69.0" 1995-96 --- 2.9" --- 31.3" 2000-01 --- 2.2" --- 47.3" 2007-08 --- 1.9" --- 64.8" 2003-04 --- 0.9" --- 38.0" 2004-05 --- 0.7" --- 82.1" 2007-08 --- 0.7" --- 78.2" 2006-07 --- 0.3" --- 36.3" 1998-99 ---- T ----- 51.6" 1999-00 ---- T ----- 29.3" 2009-10 ---- T ----- 46.1" 2001-02 ---- 0 ----- 43.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Thanks to Lk Huron -SN and on the board I'll measure once it stops, but it'll be about 0.3 or 0.4". congrats, was wondering if you had any yet as i saw there was snow in anround Toronto yesterday i got my answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Congrats. And to all those in the midwest/lakes who have not yet seen measurable snow (which is a lot of us), one thing Ill say that Ive been saying over and over. Ive seen too many people make too much of measurable snow in November and what it means for the winter that lies ahead. And Im as into stats/climo/past weather as much as anybody. Lets say in year (a) you get 7 days of Nov snow, all a T, and in year (a2) you get one day of snow, a freak squall that drops 0.5" in 10 minutes. Does it mean that the winter following November (a2) will be better than the one following November (a)? Absolutely not. Will end the month most likely with a T here. Here is a ranking of all the years since I began measuring snow in 1995-96. I ranked them in order of SNOWIEST NOVEMBERS, not snowiest winters. My snowiest November came in my least snowy winter. .................Nov.....Season total 1997-98 --- 6.0" --- 27.2" 1996-97 --- 5.7" --- 35.9" 2005-06 --- 4.8" --- 41.9" 2002-03 --- 4.7" --- 69.0" 1995-96 --- 2.9" --- 31.3" 2000-01 --- 2.2" --- 47.3" 2007-08 --- 1.9" --- 64.8" 2003-04 --- 0.9" --- 38.0" 2004-05 --- 0.7" --- 82.1" 2007-08 --- 0.7" --- 78.2" 2006-07 --- 0.3" --- 36.3" 1998-99 ---- T ----- 51.6" 1999-00 ---- T ----- 29.3" 2009-10 ---- T ----- 46.1" 2001-02 ---- 0 ----- 43.1" Numbers since I started measuring in 1999 show much more of a correlation, which is why I made that point: .................Nov.....Season total 2002-03 --- 8.7" --- 61.7" 2005-06 --- 4.4" --- 33.9" 2008-09 --- 4.2" --- 70.1" 2007-08 --- 2.1" --- 86.5" 2003-04 --- 0.7" --- 40.8" 2004-05 --- 0.4" --- 53.9" 2000-01 --- 0.4" --- 53.5" 1999-00 --- T --- 36.2" 2001-02 --- T --- 23.4" 2006-07 --- T --- 33.8" 2009-10 --- T --- 23.0" Only 2005-06 is aberrant. The 4 Novembers that saw only a T of snow all resulted in sub 40" seasonal snowfalls. 6 of the 7 Novembers that saw measurable snow, even as little as 0.4", were 40"+ seasons. But both our sample sizes are pretty small. And if you finish Nov with only a T, and me with 0.4", that doesn't mean all winter long snowstorms are going to be attracted to me like bees on honey, while simultaneously giving you the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 congrats, was wondering if you had any yet as i saw there was snow in anround Toronto yesterday i got my answer Per usual ours is chump change compared to the snowbelts. Apparently parts of the Bruce Peninsula and Parry Sound/Muskoka area got over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 37º for the high here today. Looking forward to another rainy system Mon-Tue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Numbers since I started measuring in 1999 show much more of a correlation, which is why I made that point: .................Nov.....Season total 2002-03 --- 8.7" --- 61.7" 2005-06 --- 4.4" --- 33.9" 2008-09 --- 4.2" --- 70.1" 2007-08 --- 2.1" --- 86.5" 2003-04 --- 0.7" --- 40.8" 2004-05 --- 0.4" --- 53.9" 2000-01 --- 0.4" --- 53.5" 1999-00 --- T --- 36.2" 2001-02 --- T --- 23.4" 2006-07 --- T --- 33.8" 2009-10 --- T --- 23.0" Only 2005-06 is aberrant. The 4 Novembers that saw only a T of snow all resulted in sub 40" seasonal snowfalls. 6 of the 7 Novembers that saw measurable snow, even as little as 0.4", were 40"+ seasons. But both our sample sizes are pretty small. And if you finish Nov with only a T, and me with 0.4", that doesn't mean all winter long snowstorms are going to be attracted to me like bees on honey, while simultaneously giving you the shaft. Yeah when you look at a larger sample size, you can see just about anything. A few extreme examples from Detroit: ................Nov.....Season Total 1899-00........T......69.1" 1932-33....10.1".....25.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Already down to 20 °F at MSN, about what MOS projected for the low. It could end up getting quite cold there tonight due to calm winds, but clouds are trying to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Down to 22 here. I'm also looking forward to the rain Monday and Monday night. So far for November we've only had a little over 0.80". Even though the stretch of dry weather has been boring, it's hard to complain about it after the ridiculously wet spring and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Saturday, November 27th: Hi: 34F Lo: 22F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Clear. Max Wind Gust: 18MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Pretty nice day for the end of November. Full sun and 51. Definitely a lot warmer than the last few days. It sure looks like winter out there right now. The sun angle is so low, and all the trees are bare. All the scene needs is a thick blanket of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Pretty nice day for the end of November. Full sun and 51. Definitely a lot warmer than the last few days. It sure looks like winter out there right now. The sun angle is so low, and all the trees are bare. All the scene needs is a thick blanket of snow. only 46 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Forecast was for 43F, ended up at 51F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Front door wide open like its a warm spring day.. Should have many more like this over the next 4 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Front door wide open like its a warm spring day.. Should have many more like this over the next 4 months. Might want to let the wife know to keep all sharp objects away from you for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Might want to let the wife know to keep all sharp objects away from you for awhile. Looks like the WI guys have already thrown in the towel for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Looks like the WI guys have already thrown in the towel for this winter. Yup...and the funny thing is, a month from now, BowMe will be posting photos of snow banks in his driveway. And I'll be jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Euro weeklies through Christmas http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/42195/long-range-clues-through-christmas-1.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Euro weeklies through Christmas http://www.accuweath...christmas-1.asp So crushing arctic high pressure for us and the East digs out. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 The last 2-3 winters here have featured a very snowy December and January, with basically nothing from February on. Maybe this year we'll get off to a slower start, only to pick up the slack at the end of the winter. Latest NAM and GFS runs have showed up to a half inch of rain here later tomorrow. If that happens that will be the heaviest rainfall we've seen around here since sometime back in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 About the EURO weeklies... The period that shows Dec 6-12 is a different then what the Canadian model is showing... I agree with Cyclone...its about time this December pattern changes. We've had 3 or 4 record (top 10) snowy Decembers in the past decade... That can't continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Eh, I'm not sure frank. Both have a super torch in eastern Canada. The magnitude of cold for the Plains/Midwest may be different, but it's not like one is saying warm and one is saying cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Yeah..I saw that match pretty well...its just the "very cold" air in these parts.. I guess snow cover is going to dictate what happens... how far we drop. It is interesting how the cold air gets funneled to the southeast. Been very warm in Florida the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Sunday, November 28th: Hi: 47F Lo: 21F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Clear. Max Wind Gust: 14MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Never heard of this before, kinda interesting SWS for southern WI. 950 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2010 ...SOME SLIPPERY ROADS BEING REPORTED... RECENT COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED ROAD SURFACES TO...OR BELOW FREEZING. SOUTH WINDS ARE BRINGING INCREASING NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE MOIST AIR IS CONDENSING ON THESE COLD ROAD SURFACES. IN SPITE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES... THIS MOISTURE IS FREEZING ON THE ROADS CREATING SLIPPERY SPOTS. UNTREATED RAMPS...BRIDGES AND LOW SPOTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO FREEZE. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISES CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Never heard of this before, kinda interesting SWS for southern WI. 950 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2010 ...SOME SLIPPERY ROADS BEING REPORTED... RECENT COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED ROAD SURFACES TO...OR BELOW FREEZING. SOUTH WINDS ARE BRINGING INCREASING NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE MOIST AIR IS CONDENSING ON THESE COLD ROAD SURFACES. IN SPITE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES... THIS MOISTURE IS FREEZING ON THE ROADS CREATING SLIPPERY SPOTS. UNTREATED RAMPS...BRIDGES AND LOW SPOTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO FREEZE. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISES CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN ROAD CONDITIONS TONIGHT. This is actually pretty common in winter and road frost is a major worry for state DOT's, especially like states such as Iowa which take extreme precautions with road frost. Moist WAA over what were cold roads is no different than some of the freezing rain events you get where temps are above freezing. The one they had in Fairbanks earlier this week is a good example when they had temps of 35 but freezing rain on all surfaces after they had a cold snap with temps in the negative teens and twenties. Of course that is an extreme example but it has similar results. These kind of events can also be very dangerous since drivers have no clue that roads may be icy with temps above freezing. Here is a picture of the icing event in Fairbanks a friend took with temps in the mid 30s. http://yfrog.com/mgyv5pj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I was outside in my neighbors driveway a little bit ago and it was like all ice. I was like what the heck. It's defintley slippery out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 This is actually pretty common in winter and road frost is a major worry for state DOT's, especially like states such as Iowa which take extreme precautions with road frost. Moist WAA over what were cold roads is no different than some of the freezing rain events you get where temps are above freezing. The one they had in Fairbanks earlier this week is a good example when they had temps of 35 but freezing rain on all surfaces after they had a cold snap with temps in the negative teens and twenties. Of course that is an extreme example but it has similar results. These kind of events can also be very dangerous since drivers have no clue that roads may be icy with temps above freezing. Here is a picture of the icing event in Fairbanks a friend took with temps in the mid 30s. http://yfrog.com/mgyv5pj Wow, that's neat! Good to know as the winter progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Well, back to the Midwest shortly. Gonna hit Detroit late this afternoon and be in Madison by evening. Things look clear going into Detroit, but there will be some rain at Madison. I'm guessing they can handle rain, but wouldn't be surprised to see a small delay. Should be fun crossing the rainband in a plane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Well, back to the Midwest shortly. Gonna hit Detroit late this afternoon and be in Madison by evening. Things look clear going into Detroit, but there will be some rain at Madison. I'm guessing they can handle rain, but wouldn't be surprised to see a small delay. Should be fun crossing the rainband in a plane. Well you will be coming to a great airport. Btw knowing my luck now that I said this, there will be delays or they will lose your luggage or something ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 12z NAM increases QPF here with the rainfall tonight/overnight. It's cool and all hoping for heavier rains in the drought zone...but I can see at some point soon, it's going to get a little old talking about rain (i.e. not talking about snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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