B-Rent Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 26* Here outside of MIE. Thankfully no wind. The forecast is 25*. Will have to see how that turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I think we struggle to get to 32 on Friday. I still believe we don't hit 30 on Friday. I'm ridin' the NAM train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Temp rising fast here...no freezing rain likely... or snow accumulation... GFS is brutal in the extended range...but highly suspect given the 6Z GFS is a turd... I hope Thanksgiving dinner goes better this year...last year my uncle yelled obscenities at the whole family and threw the turkey at the TV...never seen so many people crying on a holiday ... Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Temp rising fast here...no freezing rain likely... or snow accumulation... GFS is brutal in the extended range...but highly suspect given the 6Z GFS is a turd... I hope Thanksgiving dinner goes better this year...last year my uncle yelled obscenities at the whole family and threw the turkey at the TV...never seen so many people crying on a holiday ... Oh well. You have one of those dysfunctional families I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 "Uncle Ron" has a mullet and an alcohol problem... That is all i'm going to say about that... 28F and the temp continues to rise... Saukville is shaking in his underwear over the GFS cold shot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Still waiting for our first freeze here at the shores of Lake Erie, despite having a brief 20 minute coating of snow 2 weeks ago. Coldest this fall has been 34, hopefully we will dip below freezing this Friday. This will be the first freeze since March 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Just had a good burst of sleet and snow here at CoD. first flakes of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Add another looking cutter at the end of the Euro.. Should be no surprise as Stevie Wonder could have predicted a wintry fall in the northern plains and up north. Just will have to continue to wait as patiently as the fat guy in line at the buffet waiting for the new pan of broasted chicken to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 A lot rain has fallen here in the Louisville area today. And it's cold as well. Hard to believe that it might be close to 60 in about 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Add another looking cutter at the end of the Euro.. Should be no surprise as Stevie Wonder could have predicted a wintry fall in the northern plains and up north. Just will have to continue to wait as patiently as the fat guy in line at the buffet waiting for the new pan of broasted chicken to come out. Yeah, 12z EURO yesterday looked pretty chilly by D10. Not much continuity with this run. Just gotta stay patient. It'll come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 thanks, illinois weather! I'm stuck indefinitely in the Houston airport, watching my plane sit on the tarmac until Chicago opens things up at their end. Apparently, ord has gotten enough precip to really slow things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 thanks, illinois weather! I'm stuck indefinitely in the Houston airport, watching my plane sit on the tarmac until Chicago opens things up at their end. Apparently, ord has gotten enough precip to really slow things down. ORD is just a pain. As far as precip, they've only had 0.03" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Temp rising fast here...no freezing rain likely... or snow accumulation... GFS is brutal in the extended range...but highly suspect given the 6Z GFS is a turd... I hope Thanksgiving dinner goes better this year...last year my uncle yelled obscenities at the whole family and threw the turkey at the TV...never seen so many people crying on a holiday ... Oh well. LOL. And heck, even the short term looks terrible on the GFS. It has -15C 850s reaching Madison both early Friday and early next Wednesday. Teens for lows are pretty much the norm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 thanks, illinois weather! I'm stuck indefinitely in the Houston airport, watching my plane sit on the tarmac until Chicago opens things up at their end. Apparently, ord has gotten enough precip to really slow things down. anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 ORD is just a pain. As far as precip, they've only had 0.03" so far. Should have flown to DTW, we aren't backed up at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Getting some very loud thunder crashes here the last 5 minutes. Very surprising how electric these elevated cells are. Don't look impressive at all on radar, but I can tell you they're definitely putting out the CGs! Picked up 0.05" of rain so far. Freezing/frozen precip didn't make it in here in time before the colder air moved out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 LOL. And heck, even the short term looks terrible on the GFS. It has -15C 850s reaching Madison both early Friday and early next Wednesday. Teens for lows are pretty much the norm now. Enjoy your florida warmth, while the rest of us freeze to the sidewalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Don't look now, but apparently we get yet another repeat around day 9/10. Why do I get the feeling this is going to be a common theme this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Don't look now, but apparently we get yet another repeat around day 9/10. Why do I get the feeling this is going to be a common theme this winter? I'd like to hope with every subsequent storm the track moves east a hair. One can wish at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Getting some very loud thunder crashes here the last 5 minutes. Very surprising how electric these elevated cells are. Don't look impressive at all on radar, but I can tell you they're definitely putting out the CGs! Picked up 0.05" of rain so far. Freezing/frozen precip didn't make it in here in time before the colder air moved out. Nice report, it actually does look pretty convective on radar IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Don't look now, but apparently we get yet another repeat around day 9/10. Why do I get the feeling this is going to be a common theme this winter? Eh, who knows... a couple of days or maybe a week or so ago, the GFS didn't have any storms for 16 days. That turned out to not be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Don't look now, but apparently we get yet another repeat around day 9/10. Why do I get the feeling this is going to be a common theme this winter? La Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Should have flown to DTW, we aren't backed up at all If only i could. I have to fly into ord to catch a ride with family driving from mn to in. And now they won't let me switch my flight to indy even though there are seats open and this flight won't leave for hours. The radar doesn't even look that bad for northern il. Someone could spit on the runways at o'hare and cause a three hour backup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 I'd like to hope with every subsequent storm the track moves east a hair. One can wish at least. Yeah, you'd think as we add to the snowpack to the north that the mean baroclinic zone gets pushed slowly south (well that and climo working together). At the very least, all of this rain is weakening the drought, which should reduce the feedback to the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Yeah, you'd think as we add to the snowpack to the north that the mean baroclinic zone gets pushed slowly south (well that and climo working together). At the very least, all of this rain is weakening the drought, which should reduce the feedback to the SE ridge. Yes, you see the problem is, the models aren't taking into the effect of the snow pack to the north because some of it hasn't fallen yet. Once that happens you might see trends shift south some, unfortunately that's how it is with snowpack it has to be on the ground for models to have it added into the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Yes, you see the problem is, the models aren't taking into the effect of the snow pack to the north because some of it hasn't fallen yet. Once that happens you might see trends shift south some, unfortunately that's how it is with snowpack it has to be on the ground for models to have it added into the equation. we hear about snow pack effecting tracks every year, and i'm sure on a very large scale it matters some, but I've always felt when push comes to shove whether there's snowpack or not is probably like 78 or 79 on the list of things dictating storm tracks. or shifting things a little one way or the other. Am i downplaying things too much or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 we hear about snow pack effecting tracks every year, and i'm sure on a very large scale it matters some, but I've always felt when push comes to shove whether there's snowpack or not is probably like 78 or 79 on the list of things dictating storm tracks. or shifting things a little one way or the other. Am i downplaying things too much or what? I think you might be downplaying it some, especially in systems where the WAA isn't great the snow pack may hold temps down more especially near the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Yes, you see the problem is, the models aren't taking into the effect of the snow pack to the north because some of it hasn't fallen yet. Once that happens you might see trends shift south some, unfortunately that's how it is with snowpack it has to be on the ground for models to have it added into the equation. I'm calling it now. I think a wave is going to develop on that D6 cold front. Not sure how it plays out as far as snowfall amounts, location, etc, but I think there'll be something to watch. All the models seem to lag the H5 trough well behind the sfc cold front, with some leftover vorticity in the base of the trough. That bodes well for some secondary development IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 I think you might be downplaying it some, especially in systems where the WAA isn't great the snow pack may hold temps down more especially near the surface. makes sense when it comes to clippers or pac bowling balls, but all the good ones have a raging gulf flow and monster WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 I'm calling it now. I think a wave is going to develop on that D6 cold front. Not sure how it plays out as far as snowfall amounts, location, etc, but I think there'll be something to watch. All the models seem to lag the H5 trough well behind the sfc cold front, with some leftover vorticity in the base of the trough. That bodes well for some secondary development IMHO. bookmarked for trolling/props. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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