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MW/Lakes/OV November 2010 general disco


Hoosier

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Temp rising fast here...no freezing rain likely... or snow accumulation... GFS is brutal in the extended range...but highly suspect given the 6Z GFS is a turd...

I hope Thanksgiving dinner goes better this year...last year my uncle yelled obscenities at the whole family and threw the turkey at the TV...never seen so many people crying on a holiday ... Oh well.

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Temp rising fast here...no freezing rain likely... or snow accumulation... GFS is brutal in the extended range...but highly suspect given the 6Z GFS is a turd...

I hope Thanksgiving dinner goes better this year...last year my uncle yelled obscenities at the whole family and threw the turkey at the TV...never seen so many people crying on a holiday ... Oh well.

You have one of those dysfunctional families I see.

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Still waiting for our first freeze here at the shores of Lake Erie, despite having a brief 20 minute coating of snow 2 weeks ago. Coldest this fall has been 34, hopefully we will dip below freezing this Friday. This will be the first freeze since March 30th.

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Add another looking cutter at the end of the Euro.. Should be no surprise as Stevie Wonder could have predicted a wintry fall in the northern plains and up north. Just will have to continue to wait as patiently as the fat guy in line at the buffet waiting for the new pan of broasted chicken to come out.

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Add another looking cutter at the end of the Euro.. Should be no surprise as Stevie Wonder could have predicted a wintry fall in the northern plains and up north. Just will have to continue to wait as patiently as the fat guy in line at the buffet waiting for the new pan of broasted chicken to come out.

Yeah, 12z EURO yesterday looked pretty chilly by D10. Not much continuity with this run. Just gotta stay patient. It'll come.

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thanks, illinois weather!

I'm stuck indefinitely in the Houston airport, watching my plane sit on the tarmac until Chicago opens things up at their end.

Apparently, ord has gotten enough precip to really slow things down.

ORD is just a pain. As far as precip, they've only had 0.03" so far.

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Temp rising fast here...no freezing rain likely... or snow accumulation... GFS is brutal in the extended range...but highly suspect given the 6Z GFS is a turd...

I hope Thanksgiving dinner goes better this year...last year my uncle yelled obscenities at the whole family and threw the turkey at the TV...never seen so many people crying on a holiday ... Oh well.

LOL.

And heck, even the short term looks terrible on the GFS. It has -15C 850s reaching Madison both early Friday and early next Wednesday. Teens for lows are pretty much the norm now.

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Getting some very loud thunder crashes here the last 5 minutes. Very surprising how electric these elevated cells are. Don't look impressive at all on radar, but I can tell you they're definitely putting out the CGs!

Picked up 0.05" of rain so far. Freezing/frozen precip didn't make it in here in time before the colder air moved out.

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Getting some very loud thunder crashes here the last 5 minutes. Very surprising how electric these elevated cells are. Don't look impressive at all on radar, but I can tell you they're definitely putting out the CGs!

Picked up 0.05" of rain so far. Freezing/frozen precip didn't make it in here in time before the colder air moved out.

Nice report, it actually does look pretty convective on radar IMO.

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Don't look now, but apparently we get yet another repeat around day 9/10. Why do I get the feeling this is going to be a common theme this winter?

Eh, who knows... a couple of days or maybe a week or so ago, the GFS didn't have any storms for 16 days. That turned out to not be true.

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Should have flown to DTW, we aren't backed up at all :)

If only i could. I have to fly into ord to catch a ride with family driving from mn to in. And now they won't let me switch my flight to indy even though there are seats open and this flight won't leave for hours.

The radar doesn't even look that bad for northern il. Someone could spit on the runways at o'hare and cause a three hour backup.

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I'd like to hope with every subsequent storm the track moves east a hair. One can wish at least. :)

Yeah, you'd think as we add to the snowpack to the north that the mean baroclinic zone gets pushed slowly south (well that and climo working together).

At the very least, all of this rain is weakening the drought, which should reduce the feedback to the SE ridge.

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Yeah, you'd think as we add to the snowpack to the north that the mean baroclinic zone gets pushed slowly south (well that and climo working together).

At the very least, all of this rain is weakening the drought, which should reduce the feedback to the SE ridge.

Yes, you see the problem is, the models aren't taking into the effect of the snow pack to the north because some of it hasn't fallen yet. Once that happens you might see trends shift south some, unfortunately that's how it is with snowpack it has to be on the ground for models to have it added into the equation.

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Yes, you see the problem is, the models aren't taking into the effect of the snow pack to the north because some of it hasn't fallen yet. Once that happens you might see trends shift south some, unfortunately that's how it is with snowpack it has to be on the ground for models to have it added into the equation.

we hear about snow pack effecting tracks every year, and i'm sure on a very large scale it matters some, but I've always felt when push comes to shove whether there's snowpack or not is probably like 78 or 79 on the list of things dictating storm tracks. or shifting things a little one way or the other. Am i downplaying things too much or what?

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we hear about snow pack effecting tracks every year, and i'm sure on a very large scale it matters some, but I've always felt when push comes to shove whether there's snowpack or not is probably like 78 or 79 on the list of things dictating storm tracks. or shifting things a little one way or the other. Am i downplaying things too much or what?

I think you might be downplaying it some, especially in systems where the WAA isn't great the snow pack may hold temps down more especially near the surface.

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Yes, you see the problem is, the models aren't taking into the effect of the snow pack to the north because some of it hasn't fallen yet. Once that happens you might see trends shift south some, unfortunately that's how it is with snowpack it has to be on the ground for models to have it added into the equation.

I'm calling it now. I think a wave is going to develop on that D6 cold front. Not sure how it plays out as far as snowfall amounts, location, etc, but I think there'll be something to watch. All the models seem to lag the H5 trough well behind the sfc cold front, with some leftover vorticity in the base of the trough. That bodes well for some secondary development IMHO.

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I'm calling it now. I think a wave is going to develop on that D6 cold front. Not sure how it plays out as far as snowfall amounts, location, etc, but I think there'll be something to watch. All the models seem to lag the H5 trough well behind the sfc cold front, with some leftover vorticity in the base of the trough. That bodes well for some secondary development IMHO.

bookmarked for trolling/props.

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