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MW/Lakes/OV November 2010 general disco


Hoosier

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Ah, several weeks ago the GFS was first showing our wintry (read: snowy) pattern to commence around the 15th-16th of November.

Just a fool to believe.

Moral of the story: don't believe the hype. sad.gif

Although I do welcome this current rainy pattern. At least it's something happening here. I remain hopeful for future wintry prospects...whenever that may be.

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Moral of the story: don't believe the hype. sad.gif

Although I do welcome this current rainy pattern. At least it's something happening here. I remain hopeful for future wintry prospects...whenever that may be.

Hanging your hopes on the post 180 hour GFS will always get you in trouble. But because some of the indicies (NAO/AO) were looking fairly promising, I thought I could give those fantasy blizzards a little more credence. Oh well.

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*While AO/NAO begin to rise after Dec 1 they both stay firmly negative according to the ensemble forecast on the CPC site. PNA also starts to go positive during this period which will hopefully quash that GOA low from flooding the continent with Pacific air. All this accompanied with increasingly more favorable snow climotology makes me think the period around Dec 5 might be a good time to watch for a true storm threat. Until then, regardless of what a rogue model run shows here or there, I think we'll have to be content with rain.

* Doesn't include MN. You'll have several snow chances preceding Dec 5.

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*While AO/NAO begin to rise after Dec 1 they both stay firmly negative according to the ensemble forecast on the CPC site. PNA also starts to go positive during this period which will hopefully quash that GOA low from flooding the continent with Pacific air. All this accompanied with increasingly more favorable snow climotology makes me think the period around Dec 5 might be a good time to watch for a true storm threat. Until then, regardless of what a rogue model run shows here or there, I think we'll have to be content with rain.

* Doesn't include MN. You'll have several snow chances preceding Dec 5.

Yeah, I don't think this will be a warm pattern on average, but we could still get screwed on storm tracks. November snow around here is a bonus and contributes very little to the seasonal average, but I understand it's different for folks farther north. If nothing else, as long as we get tracks heading toward the Lakes, it opens the door to more potential severe weather events at least into the OV which I'll take.

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f192.gif

f216.gif

12z EURO looks mildly interesting. Main D7 storm still cuts way west but a second piece of energy rounds the base of the trough and forms a wave over WV at D8. Looks like an Apps runner track although would have to see 204 to be sure. Am a little suspicious of the D8 sfc features it's depicting. I'd think that wave over WV would be further west considering were the H5 energy is.

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12z EURO looks mildly interesting. Main D7 storm still cuts way west but a second piece of energy rounds the base of the trough and forms a wave over WV at D8. Looks like an Apps runner track although would have to see 204 to be sure. Am a little suspicious of the D8 sfc features it's depicting. I'd think that wave over WV would be further west considering were the H5 energy is.

Do you have 192-204 frames yet? I'm waiting for the ECMWF to update on Accuwx Pro... although this whole storm is kind of weird looking.

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Hard to tell but it looks a little to warm for eastern Ohio and Toronto through 204 but after that it looks to start changing over. Hard to tell how much precip would be snow but I could see maybe a 3-6" strip. Wet run though.. lot of the Ohio Valley between 4-5-6"

Much thanks. At least there's some continuity between the 0z and 12z EURO runs, both showing that secondary storm in the OV/TV. Interestingly, GGEM at 180 also has a lot of energy hanging around in the southern Plains, which might, if we were able to see the GGEM beyond 180, produce a similar kind of storm.

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No, I don't have access to any of that. I'm just looking at the freebies at PSU. BowMe might be able to fill us in with the SV data.

Just updated on AccuwxPro. Low tracks from WV to Pittsburgh, to WNY to Northern NY. Sfc. Temps are below 35 from North-Central OH west. 850s crash by 192-198. Haven't checked much else but going off that it looks like .5-.75" of Frozen QPF for some areas.

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