Hoosier Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Careful with the interpretations! The boundary surges all the way into AR/TN with the 104-120 hour system. I suspect there will be a ton of cold very low level air (sub 850 as I mentioned in the pinned thread). This setup screams huge overrunning event if a system like the EURO/GEM/select GFS ensemble member's solutions pan out. Note the "double barrel" low look on the 144 EURO frame. The southern low is due more to strong WAA forcing an SLP while the northern one is almost purely DPVA forced. Also note the wedging on the SLP where it tries to place the surface warm front. This is typical where we see systems try to displace stubborn low-level cold airmasses, and these systems tend to stack/tilt back to the NW/NNW a lot more than normal systems. The surface front on this run never makes it north of cent IL/IN/OH. A good chunk territory north of that would be in serious trouble for icing. I would suspect the story would be the same further west as the system is getting started. I wonder how well the low level cold will be able to hold on though, especially farther east. I have to believe a rapidly deepening system like this would try to pull the front farther north, or if not, at least modify the airmass enough to cut off the icing threat in areas that don't break into the true warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I wonder how well the low level cold will be able to hold on though, especially farther east. I have to believe a rapidly deepening system like this would try to pull the front farther north, or if not, at least modify the airmass enough to cut off the icing threat in areas that don't break into the true warm sector. I would believe the CAD theory in January, but it's a little too early in the season to consider the possibility of overruning events, especially considering how warm the air's been this fall. This will largely be rain/snow event if it does verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I wonder how well the low level cold will be able to hold on though, especially farther east. I have to believe a rapidly deepening system like this would try to pull the front farther north, or if not, at least modify the airmass enough to cut off the icing threat in areas that don't break into the true warm sector. Sort of related...I wonder how common late November ice storms are in the Midwest? Any case studies out there? Without digging into climo I would guess not very often given lack of snow cover, warm surfaces, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I would believe the CAD theory in January, but it's a little too early in the season to consider the possibility of overruning events, especially considering how warm the air's been this fall. This will largely be rain/snow event if it does verify. Yeah...I would tend to agree with you that ice doesn't look like a big threat with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Semeone please post the next image for the gem...if it can bomb out more,...maybe my area would get some winter out of it. ehhhh maybe Friv, Would make for an interesting Black Friday for people, they'd have 2 places going crazy, Best Buy... and Schnucks! but just looking at the placement yep I could see some back end snows for the bi-state region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Sort of related...I wonder how common late November ice storms are in the Midwest? Any case studies out there? Without digging into climo I would guess not very often given lack of snow cover, warm surfaces, etc. Can't imagine they are too common (except maybe farther north) but I really don't know. There was a pretty decent ice storm with the 11/30-12/1 2006 event in parts of the Midwest but other than that, nothing really jumps to the top of my head right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I wonder how well the low level cold will be able to hold on though, especially farther east. I have to believe a rapidly deepening system like this would try to pull the front farther north, or if not, at least modify the airmass enough to cut off the icing threat in areas that don't break into the true warm sector. Further east a mix/ice onset to rain flip is much more viable. Further west, before the SLP truly bombs, I think we'll see a wider mixing band (provided this happens anywhere close to advertised). As far as climo is concerned, we're talking about the last week of November, or 5-6 days from the end of the month, not Nov 15th, or I'd be more inclined to agree. There are plenty of ice storms in climo that fall within a +/- 1-week period around Dec 1st. Here's one that started on the 30th of Nov, 2006, albeit displaced a bit further south than this is progged thusfar: http://www.crh.noaa....x/?n=11_30_2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Sort of related...I wonder how common late November ice storms are in the Midwest? Any case studies out there? Without digging into climo I would guess not very often given lack of snow cover, warm surfaces, etc. Sort of in the midwest, but there was an ice storm/snowstorm on Nov 30-Dec 1st (Missouri area) http://www.crh.noaa....0dec1_snowstorm Also another on Dec 8th-10th of 2007 http://www.crh.noaa....ormsummarydec07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Further east a mix/ice onset to rain flip is much more viable. Further west, before the SLP truly bombs, I think we'll see a wider mixing band (provided this happens anywhere close to advertised). As far as climo is concerned, we're talking about the last week of November, or 5-6 days from the end of the month, not Nov 15th, or I'd be more inclined to agree. There are plenty of ice storms in climo that fall within a +/- 1-week period around Dec 1st. Here's one that started on the 30th of Nov, 2006, albeit displaced a bit further south than this is progged thusfar: http://www.crh.noaa....x/?n=11_30_2006 Wasn't fall 2006 overall colder than normal? http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/state-map-display.pl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Sort of in the midwest, but there was an ice storm/snowstorm on Nov 30-Dec 1st (Missouri area) http://www.crh.noaa....0dec1_snowstorm Also another on Dec 8th-10th of 2007 http://www.crh.noaa....ormsummarydec07 Thanks for this! And to csnavy for his input. Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 In any event, I'm not saying overruning events don't happen this time of year, but they're unusual because whatever cold air is out there is too shallow. While I don't have any maps to verify it, I suspect the patterns in which the 2006 and 2007 overruning events took place were anomalous from the get go. The setup will be even rougher this time since the airmass preceeding the storm is already toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I could see a potential of some ice depending on the track, clearly though, wow at the models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Any thoughts on how next week unfolds? I'm pretty much staying mum on the subject until we get closer. Too many variables. strongly agree with you post. classic case of timing. given the number of variables needed to come together just right, im not optimstic....i think areas further west are under the gun for sure....but that doesnt mean i wont be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 All most time! Where ya living in Canada these days? same, MTL with folks in ottawa.....gotta update my location! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Do you guys think us in Minnesota stand a chance of another blizzard with this one? A westward trend perhaps like has happened in the past? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Hopefully that block over the Davis Strait can keep some cold air in place, even if the low ends up taking a further west track. GGEM certainly doesn't show it, but I remember numberous times during 07-08 and 08-09 where the models underdid the CAD out ahead of imporant storms in the medium range. im defintely not optimistic regarding a CAD signature at this time of the year. i think we have to get it right, or we wont see anything of note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 who is Powerball? new person, or someoen from the old board? i havent been loggin on much since last winter in this subforum, so maybe i missed their arrival.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Do you guys think us in Minnesota stand a chance of another blizzard with this one? A westward trend perhaps like has happened in the past? Too early to tell, anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 who is Powerball? new person, or someoen from the old board? i havent been loggin on much since last winter in this subforum, so maybe i missed their arrival.. Several people have asked him/her...no answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Several people have asked him/her...no answer. I'm pretty sure I know who it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I'm pretty sure I know who it is... Yeah, I think you're on the money with that guess. Wasn't sure at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I'm pretty sure I know who it is... Yeah, I think you're on the money with that guess. Wasn't sure at first. I have a name or two that comes to mind, but i'm probably off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I have a name or two that comes to mind, but i'm probably off. Does one of them start with a "w". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Does one of them start with a "w". Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 The university has measured 1.2cm of snow this afternoon Unfortunately, none of it stuck. Was today an LES event? The radar down here has been offline for the past two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I have a name or two that comes to mind, but i'm probably off. Book and wxfreeck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Several people have asked him/her...no answer. ahhh ok love the name, thats why i asked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Book and wxfreeck? Yea. Same person though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Yea. Same person though. Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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