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MW/Lakes/OV November 2010 general disco


Hoosier

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so much for the idea our cold shot comes in via a slow progressing baroclinic zone stretched sw to ne with waves riding along it.....:lol:

Which, of course, could still be what happens. We all know that the GFS has a progressive bias in the medium range and it once again is very progressive when compared to other guidance this go around. Who knows though...way too early to get excited or worked up about.

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Don't want to imby you to death but is there any front end SN/ZR for me? I noticed on the PSU maps there was some deep 700/850 RH before the 0c/540 dam lines went to my north.

Looks a tad warm and then it wraps warm air in to it @ 174.. Lotta of SE MI and the thumb have 2m temps of 45-50. Temps crash fast tho at 180 and beyond and clocks MI with snow and prob blizz conditions. You would get in to some decent stuff also when temps crash between 180-186.

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Careful with the interpretations!

The boundary surges all the way into AR/TN with the 104-120 hour system. I suspect there will be a ton of cold very low level air (sub 850 as I mentioned in the pinned thread). This setup screams huge overrunning event if a system like the EURO/GEM/select GFS ensemble member's solutions pan out. Note the "double barrel" low look on the 144 EURO frame. The southern low is due more to strong WAA forcing an SLP while the northern one is almost purely DPVA forced. Also note the wedging on the SLP where it tries to place the surface warm front. This is typical where we see systems try to displace stubborn low-level cold airmasses, and these systems tend to stack/tilt back to the NW/NNW a lot more than normal systems. The surface front on this run never makes it north of cent IL/IN/OH. A good chunk territory north of that would be in serious trouble for icing. I would suspect the story would be the same further west as the system is getting started.

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Looks a tad warm and then it wraps warm air in to it @ 174.. Lotta of SE MI and the thumb have 2m temps of 45-50. Temps crash fast tho at 180 and beyond and clocks MI with snow and prob blizz conditions. You would get in to some decent stuff also when temps crash between 180-186.

Sounds like Jan 78. I'll take it.

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Careful with the interpretations!

The boundary surges all the way into AR/TN with the 104-120 hour system. I suspect there will be a ton of cold very low level air (sub 850 as I mentioned in the pinned thread). This setup screams huge overrunning event if a system like the EURO/GEM/select GFS ensemble member's solutions pan out. Note the "double barrel" low look on the 144 EURO frame. The southern low is due more to strong WAA forcing an SLP while the northern one is almost purely DPVA forced. Also note the wedging on the SLP where it tries to place the surface warm front. This is typical where we see systems try to displace stubborn low-level cold airmasses, and these systems tend to stack/tilt back to the NW/NNW a lot more than normal systems. The surface front on this run never makes it north of cent IL/IN/OH. A good chunk territory north of that would be in serious trouble for icing. I would suspect the story would be the same further west as the system is getting started.

This is very true.

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