Hoosier Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 so much for the idea our cold shot comes in via a slow progressing baroclinic zone stretched sw to ne with waves riding along it..... That would be an ideal spread the wealth scenario. What we want and what actually happens may be far different things lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 What he said.. Bombs in 6 hrs from 992 around White Lake Roy to 980 in upper lower MI.. Don't want to imby you to death but is there any front end SN/ZR for me? I noticed on the PSU maps there was some deep 700/850 RH before the 0c/540 dam lines went to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 would pretty much be a full fledged blizzard anywhere away from lake michigan in wisconsin/ill/eastern iowa per the ecmwf Do you think I might stand a chance with this one at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Probably, but in 12 hours it may be showing snow for you. :-p Buckeye isn't that lucky.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 wait a second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 so much for the idea our cold shot comes in via a slow progressing baroclinic zone stretched sw to ne with waves riding along it..... Which, of course, could still be what happens. We all know that the GFS has a progressive bias in the medium range and it once again is very progressive when compared to other guidance this go around. Who knows though...way too early to get excited or worked up about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 wait a second lol, bowme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Another look at 192hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 lol, bowme. The low occludes and moves due east to that position at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Another look at 192hrs. Wrap around FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 wait a second Yeah, I would imagine if the storm does bomb out like the GGEM/ECMWF suggests there will no doubt be some decent wrap around snows for MI/IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Another look at 192hrs. Nice window rattling event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 And 1 other look at the 192--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Well, finally something interesting to speak about. IS IT TIME FOR A SEPARATE STORM THREAD? clearly this one will get clogged with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 good lord .....euro at 240 hours looks brutal cold... Hate to say it but put this run in jb's corner. wonder if this trough from hell will have staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 lol, bowme. I think Bowme was talking about 180 being at traverse city. It would then kind of wander off to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Not even worth posting an image of, but the NOCRAPS looks pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 good lord .....euro at 240 hours looks brutal cold... Hate to say it but put this run in jb's corner. wonder if this trough from hell will have staying power. Will you post that image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Don't want to imby you to death but is there any front end SN/ZR for me? I noticed on the PSU maps there was some deep 700/850 RH before the 0c/540 dam lines went to my north. Looks a tad warm and then it wraps warm air in to it @ 174.. Lotta of SE MI and the thumb have 2m temps of 45-50. Temps crash fast tho at 180 and beyond and clocks MI with snow and prob blizz conditions. You would get in to some decent stuff also when temps crash between 180-186. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Will you post that image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I think Bowme was talking about 180 being at traverse city. It would then kind of wander off to the NE. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 lol, bowme. Wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Careful with the interpretations! The boundary surges all the way into AR/TN with the 104-120 hour system. I suspect there will be a ton of cold very low level air (sub 850 as I mentioned in the pinned thread). This setup screams huge overrunning event if a system like the EURO/GEM/select GFS ensemble member's solutions pan out. Note the "double barrel" low look on the 144 EURO frame. The southern low is due more to strong WAA forcing an SLP while the northern one is almost purely DPVA forced. Also note the wedging on the SLP where it tries to place the surface warm front. This is typical where we see systems try to displace stubborn low-level cold airmasses, and these systems tend to stack/tilt back to the NW/NNW a lot more than normal systems. The surface front on this run never makes it north of cent IL/IN/OH. A good chunk territory north of that would be in serious trouble for icing. I would suspect the story would be the same further west as the system is getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Looks like we definitely have something to watch, but still quite a few days for things to change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 At 240 hours, the Euro has 850 mb temps of 0C well into the Gulf of Mexico with -4C to -8C along the Gulf Coast. There's an area of -12C in the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Looks a tad warm and then it wraps warm air in to it @ 174.. Lotta of SE MI and the thumb have 2m temps of 45-50. Temps crash fast tho at 180 and beyond and clocks MI with snow and prob blizz conditions. You would get in to some decent stuff also when temps crash between 180-186. Sounds like Jan 78. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Wut? My bad. I jumped the gun before taking a look at the shorter time periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Storm Thread Guys: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/798-midwest-thanksgiving-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Careful with the interpretations! The boundary surges all the way into AR/TN with the 104-120 hour system. I suspect there will be a ton of cold very low level air (sub 850 as I mentioned in the pinned thread). This setup screams huge overrunning event if a system like the EURO/GEM/select GFS ensemble member's solutions pan out. Note the "double barrel" low look on the 144 EURO frame. The southern low is due more to strong WAA forcing an SLP while the northern one is almost purely DPVA forced. Also note the wedging on the SLP where it tries to place the surface warm front. This is typical where we see systems try to displace stubborn low-level cold airmasses, and these systems tend to stack/tilt back to the NW/NNW a lot more than normal systems. The surface front on this run never makes it north of cent IL/IN/OH. A good chunk territory north of that would be in serious trouble for icing. I would suspect the story would be the same further west as the system is getting started. This is very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 My bad. I jumped the gun before taking a look at the shorter time periods. No problem at all.. I just figured I screwed up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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