Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 GGEM digs the energy in the west more and is slower. 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Trough going neutral tilt a little too soon for my liking. Also that low farther north looks like it might be screwing with things as far as pulling in warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Trough going neutral tilt a little too soon for my liking. Also that low farther north looks like it might be screwing with things as far as pulling in warm air. I think there's little doubt that if we could see the GGEM beyond 180 that would be a massive rainstorm for most of us, except for IA/MN/W WI and thereabout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 12z Euro may look pretty strange. It explodes a low over eastern Canada at 12z Tues.... 982 MB. The GFS has a low in the vicinity, however, it's only 1004. This may be in response to a stronger 500 MB piece of energy on the Euro. By Day 6, it retrogrades that low NW, with more energy dropping into the western US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Semeone please post the next image for the gem...if it can bomb out more,...maybe my area would get some winter out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Semeone please post the next image for the gem...if it can bomb out more,...maybe my area would get some winter out of it. Only goes out to 180 on the 12z run. But I could see STL get some decent CCB action if there were a 186/192 frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 12z Euro has a 998 MB low along the IN/OH central to southern border at 12z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 At 144 EURO has shallow arctic air invading the GL/N OV. Sfc low developing over the TX panhandle. Ul trough looks broad and positively tilted, which would prevent a warmer GGEM solution, but we'll have to wait and see until 168 comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Goes Pow - 980 around (lil east) traverse city lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 12z Euro has a 998 MB low along the IN/OH central to southern border at 12z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 12z Euro has a 998 MB low along the IN/OH central to southern border at 12z Thursday. Goes Pow - 980 around traverse city lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 I'm guessing the trough goes negative tilt and yanks it north. Not sure, gonna check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 192 maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Ah, I see it at 168 now. When JoMo gave that description I was expected a more stringy, diffused wave move ENE across the OV, based on how the EURO ul trough looked at 144. But it really sharpens that trough quickly, creating a more wrapped up storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I'm guessing that's a good thing for WI? LOW in northern Michigan can't be a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Ah, I see it at 168 now. When JoMo gave that description I was expected a more stringy, diffused wave move ENE across the OV, based on how the EURO ul trough looked at 144. But it really sharpens that trough quickly, creating a more wrapped up storm. ya now seeing the 168 you can tell that thing is cutting due north and exploding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I'm guessing the trough goes negative tilt and yanks it north. Not sure, gonna check it out. Yuppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Single digit highs in MN on Black Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Makes sense based on the contours at 12z Thurs. Only goes out to 7 days though: http://greatlakes.salsite.com/big_ECMWF_plymouth_page.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Makes sense based on the contours at 12z Thurs. Only goes out to 7 days though: http://greatlakes.sa...mouth_page.html Yeah, your description was fine. I was imagining that 168 map in my mind based on how the EURO looked at 144. I was way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 would pretty much be a full fledged blizzard anywhere away from lake michigan in wisconsin/ill/eastern iowa per the ecmwf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 You usually get a pretty nice system with this tight/strong of a baroclinic zone. I would trend my forecast towards a farther west/stronger 12z Euro/GEM solution. We shall see...just looking forward to snow and winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Yuppers Those are some mighty impressive 500 mb height anomalies for late November. Sub 510 dm in Michigan and sub 504 dm just to your north? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 i wonder if there would be a severe weather ingredient with this set up into the OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 would pretty much be a full fledged blizzard anywhere away from lake michigan in wisconsin/ill/eastern iowa per the ecmwf What he said.. Bombs in 6 hrs from 992 around White Lake Roy to 980 in upper lower MI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 You usually get a pretty nice system with this tight/strong of a baroclinic zone. I would trend my forecast towards a farther west/stronger 12z Euro/GEM solution. We shall see...just looking forward to snow and winter so much for the idea our cold shot comes in via a slow progressing baroclinic zone stretched sw to ne with waves riding along it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 i wonder if there would be a severe weather ingredient with this set up into the OV Probably, but in 12 hours it may be showing snow for you. :-p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 i wonder if there would be a severe weather ingredient with this set up into the OV I imagine there would be. At 168 hours, there is a 500 mb jet of over 100 knots punching into AR/MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Those are some mighty impressive 500 mb height anomalies for late November. Sub 510 dm in Michigan and sub 504 dm just to your north? lol Too bad they don't help out when the precip is ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 looks like minimal snow for my area on the euro, but snow and then cold, very very cold. this is reminding me of dec 1st 2006. I am not sure how close the UL compare, but one thing is for sure, the Low Level cold air will likely be hundreds of miles further SE then the models have as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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