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MW/Lakes/OV November 2010 general disco

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Central/Western States

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csnavywx

csnavywx

Posted
Posted

The 00z GGEM would be a huge ice and sleet storm. Only turns to snow up in IA and Cent/Nrn WI and MN. Not sure we want one of those to start off with winter. Of course the GFS is faster with the system, but it still has one hell of an elevated warm layer and inverted trough (ice setup as well). I don't have the in between frames on the Euro (144-168), but my guess is that it would look similar on the ice situation.

The major differences are how fast and strong the western trough is when it ejects. If I've learned anything about the models in this situation, it's that they do tend to break down big blocks too quick, and as a result, this trough shouldn't be moving very fast when it does decide to come east. I'd expect a slowdown if anything.

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JoMo

JoMo

Posted
Posted

HPC Prelim outlooks going with the 06z GFS which slowed everything back down and hung on to a piece of energy in the west.

...UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS...A CHANGE IN CONTINUITY IS PREFERRED FROM THE OVERNIGHT PROGS AS 06Z GFS HAS BECOME MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND PRIOR MODEL RUNS HOLDING THE SOUTHWESTERN TROF WESTWARD OF OVERNIGHT MODELPROGRESSION. CONTINUITY AND A LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST WOULD ALSO SLOW THE TROF DOWN. LATEST MODEL RUNS AT ANY TIME FROM DAY 6 AND ONWARD ARE NOT NECESSARILLY CORRECT AND A LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST PERFORMS BETTER. IN THIS CASE THEY HOLD THE TROF WESTWARD ANDSLOWER. IN ADDITION A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDER WAY WITHRETROGRESSION OF THE EPAC STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY AND PROGRESSIONOF HIGHER HTS INTO GREENLAND AND DAVIS STRAITS AND EVENTUALLY NRN CANADA. THIS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT OCCURS WITH A CORRESPONDING SFC WEATHER REFLECTION. IN THIS CASE ENOUGH ENERGY IS SWINGING EASTWARD WITH THE TROF TO INDUCE A FRONTAL WAVE EJECTING NEWD ALONG THE SFC FRONT INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

THE MORE EXTREME SOLUTIONS OF DROPING LOWER HTS OR EVEN A CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUES-WED ALTHOUGH EARLIER DISCOUNTED HERE YTDA AND TDA BASED ON ENS MEANS AND OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS MUST STILL BE CONSIDERED AND WATCHED AS PER LAGGED AVERAGES AND LATEST 06Z GFS. THE EXTREME SOLUTION OF THE 00Z CMC IS NOT DISSIMILAR TO THAT OF YTDAS 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF. THE RESULT OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD BE NEAR OR RECORD COLD TEMPS WITH DEPARTURES OF BELOW 40 DEGREES FROM NORMAL WITH MID LEVEL HT STANDARDIZED HT ANOMALIES INTHE 3.5 TO 4.5 FROM NORMAL RANGE. THIS THREAT IS ALSO SEEN BY THE 06Z GFS WHICH IS OUR PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR TODAY.

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BowMeHunter

BowMeHunter

Posted
Posted

Meh, not a bad extended run of the GFS. GOA trough returns but is prevented from flooding us with pacific air due to -NAO. Good setup for clippers.

Yeah not the most exciting out this way but for you and others east of me to the coast that can be nice.. As long as I can stay under the trough and on the cool side for a while that's fine with me.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

12z GFS Ensembles not totally discounting a more wound up storm farther west either.

f168.gif

Hopefully that block over the Davis Strait can keep some cold air in place, even if the low ends up taking a further west track. GGEM certainly doesn't show it, but I remember numberous times during 07-08 and 08-09 where the models underdid the CAD out ahead of imporant storms in the medium range.

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