mnweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Oh well, I guess we will see how things pan out. It would be quite a bummer if I get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cromartie Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 12z EURO gives the areas along Lake Michigan and further east a nice rainstorm for Turkey Day. Keep that cold crap west. The LOW goes from northern MO to ORD to DTX and deepens to 988. If this was a month later it'd be nail-biting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Larry Cosgrove thinks it won't be a cutter...his latest from his weather examiner this evening A huge storm and trough complex now over the Pacific Ocean will be approaching Houston on the day before Thanksgiving. I am fairly sure that the surface low will move in a Colorado/Trinidad "B" manner (S CO to S KY, then to off of the coastline of DE/NJ). This system looks to be quite intense, with a mantle of important rain, ice, and snow to its north across the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast, and strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of TX, OK and the Old South and Mid-Atlantic region into Thanksgiving evening. I also dont think it will be this much to the right either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 12z EURO gives the areas along Lake Michigan and further east a nice rainstorm for Turkey Day. Keep that cold crap west. The LOW goes from northern MO to ORD to DTX and deepens to 988. If this was a month later it'd be nail-biting here. Ya but it's still along an arctic front, the cold just comes in after the storm, either way the cold is coming just how you get there on the models is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Ya but it's still along an arctic front, the cold just comes in after the storm, either way the cold is coming just how you get there on the models is different. then we need the cold front to come faster to help push the track a bit more SE if a cutter does form out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 then we need the cold front to come faster to help push the track a bit more SE if a cutter does form out of this. or slower than the 18z gfs which misses to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 then we need the cold front to come faster to help push the track a bit more SE if a cutter does form out of this. It did speed up slightly from the 12z to 18z. Interested in seeing what it does on the 00z here in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Substantial changes between the 12/0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Substantial changes between the 12/0z. GFS (insert shock and awe here) If only GFS would have a clue once and a while it would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Substantial changes between the 12/0z. you can say that again! whoh that's a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Front on the 0z GFS looks like it's sped up about 24-36 hours. Plus it doesn't look like the D7 wave is going to be all that impressive this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 GFS (insert shock and awe here) If only GFS would have a clue once and a while it would be nice. you can say that again! whoh that's a change. This is where we refer to this video. http://www.youtube.c...player_embedded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 More consolidated over Canada and faster with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 This is where we refer to this video. http://www.youtube.c...player_embedded indeed, funny how the front speeds up yet that system for thanksgiving is north? I swear I think the GFS just does whatever it wants.... Btw talk about a COLD thanksgiving now, where as before it was probably going to be in the 40s at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Well, that was a depressing model run. Come on GGEM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Well, that was a depressing model run. Come on GGEM! If that run verifies, I'll eat my shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 indeed, funny how the front speeds up yet that system for thanksgiving is north? I swear I think the GFS just does whatever it wants.... Btw talk about a COLD thanksgiving now, where as before it was probably going to be in the 40s at least... Yeah, I'm not sure it pays to try to figure out the storm details at this point. It would be frustrating to transition into this pattern and not get anything out of it, but still a lot of time for things to get sorted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Yeah, I'm not sure it pays to try to figure out the storm details at this point. It would be frustrating to transition into this pattern and not get anything out of it, but still a lot of time for things to get sorted out. Yeah that amount of cold and energy, and we end up with a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 It looks like the storm next Tuesday is stronger now instead. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 More consolidated over Canada and faster with everything. Much more organized at 500mb on the 0z compared to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 The GFS sure looks like it's getting ready to blow up a big storm when you look at the mon and tue guidance, but then as you progress ahead in time it produces a quick moving non-event type system. 84hr NAM also looks like it's getting ready to blow up something big too. The 00z GFS ensembles should be interesting, as well as the GEM and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I swear I think the GFS just does whatever it wants.... It likes to screw with us, just like Marcus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I know you guys down around Chi/Ind aren't excited with this run, but the snow event for the upper North Central around GFK and into northern MN is looking good with the day 3-4 wave. These kind of snow events can end up doing more damage than they initially look, especially with frontal banding on the cold side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I know you guys down around Chi/Ind aren't excited with this run, but the snow event for the upper North Central around GFK and into northern MN is looking good with the day 3-4 wave. These kind of snow events can end up doing more damage than they initially look, especially with frontal banding on the cold side. I am actually quite excited for the weekend snow. I think I could do fairly well with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I am actually quite excited for the weekend snow. I think I could do fairly well with it. Where you at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Dropping the energy into the west. (Upper left) GFS at same time. Quite a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Where you at? Just north of Duluth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Wednesday, November 17th: Hi: 46F Lo: 33F Overall Sky Conditions: Cloudy. Max Wind Gust: 17MPH Rainfall: Trace Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Happy Thanksgiving from the GGEM 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 A little too far south for me at this time but I know that will change. It should be an interesting week of model watching ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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