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MW/Lakes/OV November 2010 general disco


Hoosier

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Larry Cosgrove thinks it won't be a cutter...his latest from his weather examiner this evening

A huge storm and trough complex now over the

Pacific Ocean will be approaching Houston on the

day before Thanksgiving. I am fairly sure that the

surface low will move in a Colorado/Trinidad "B"

manner (S CO to S KY, then to off of the coastline of

DE/NJ). This system looks to be quite intense, with a

mantle of important rain, ice, and snow to its north

across the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast, and

strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of TX,

OK and the Old South and Mid-Atlantic region into

Thanksgiving evening.

I also dont think it will be this much to the right either...

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12z EURO gives the areas along Lake Michigan and further east a nice rainstorm for Turkey Day. Keep that cold crap west.

The LOW goes from northern MO to ORD to DTX and deepens to 988. If this was a month later it'd be nail-biting here.

Ya but it's still along an arctic front, the cold just comes in after the storm, either way the cold is coming just how you get there on the models is different.

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indeed, funny how the front speeds up yet that system for thanksgiving is north? I swear I think the GFS just does whatever it wants....

Btw talk about a COLD thanksgiving now, where as before it was probably going to be in the 40s at least...

Yeah, I'm not sure it pays to try to figure out the storm details at this point. It would be frustrating to transition into this pattern and not get anything out of it, but still a lot of time for things to get sorted out.

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Yeah, I'm not sure it pays to try to figure out the storm details at this point. It would be frustrating to transition into this pattern and not get anything out of it, but still a lot of time for things to get sorted out.

Yeah that amount of cold and energy, and we end up with a dud.

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The GFS sure looks like it's getting ready to blow up a big storm when you look at the mon and tue guidance, but then as you progress ahead in time it produces a quick moving non-event type system. 84hr NAM also looks like it's getting ready to blow up something big too. The 00z GFS ensembles should be interesting, as well as the GEM and Euro.

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I know you guys down around Chi/Ind aren't excited with this run, but the snow event for the upper North Central around GFK and into northern MN is looking good with the day 3-4 wave. These kind of snow events can end up doing more damage than they initially look, especially with frontal banding on the cold side.

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I know you guys down around Chi/Ind aren't excited with this run, but the snow event for the upper North Central around GFK and into northern MN is looking good with the day 3-4 wave. These kind of snow events can end up doing more damage than they initially look, especially with frontal banding on the cold side.

I am actually quite excited for the weekend snow. I think I could do fairly well with it.

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