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MW/Lakes/OV November 2010 general disco

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Central/Western States

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

gfs_pcp_180m.gif

This is the third or fourth wave ripping along the polar baroclinic zone. Each subsequent wave allows to the low level cold air to seep a little further SE.

2004 pre-Turkey Day redux? It'd be perfect timing, considering I'm traveling north Wednesday night...same as back in 2004. That was a fun drive.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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That'll be someone's snowstorm and it'll be more wrapped up than that (and probably quite a bit further west). The cold will follow.

Stebo48858[/color]' timestamp='1290035094' post='15544']

I wouldn't say quite a bit further west, the SE ridge is going to weaken slightly as we move on into late next week, deeper though I could see that. However it should ride the baroclinic zone northeast and there really isnt a strong system east of the ridge to the east to amplify the pattern too much. In other words I'd say its a wait and see.

I agree, just wait and see. The trough orientation and positive tilt does not get me excited. Almost all GFS ensemble members and the CMC keep the final trough positive. The Euro does have more of an influence with the SE ridge and shows a more negative trough over the eastern US and into Canada, but with that positive tilt orientation it would be difficult for deep cyclogenesis and a wrapped circulation to develop, at least at this point in time. A lot of weather needs to happen.

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Stebo

Stebo

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I agree, just wait and see. The trough orientation and positive tilt does not get me excited. Almost all GFS ensemble members and the CMC keep the final trough positive. The Euro does have more of an influence with the SE ridge and shows a more negative trough over the eastern US and into Canada, but with that positive tilt orientation it would be difficult for deep cyclogenesis and a wrapped circulation to develop, at least at this point in time. A lot of weather needs to happen.

Yeah there is quite a bit of weather between now and then. What I could see is a Positively tilted trough that goes Neutral as it get close to us. The model I'd be watching would be the CMC as it has been pretty good so far this winter.

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cmichweather

cmichweather

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There was, it was a 5+ hour drive, normally I can make it in 2 1/2 hours...

Ya it took me a good 4 hours and i tried to leave ahead of the storm, now my gf's idiot roommates that i warned for days in advance to leave early and beat the storm kept telling me that it doesn't snow before thanksgiving and they'd be fine. They ended up spinning out and getting stuck near Saginaw and had to get the car towed to a motel til the storm ended and roads improved and didn't get home til noon on turkey day. Shows them for not listening to me.devilsmiley.gif

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Stebo

Stebo

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Ya it took me a good 4 hours and i tried to leave ahead of the storm, now my gf's idiot roommates that i warned for days in advance to leave early and beat the storm kept telling me that it doesn't snow before thanksgiving and they'd be fine. They ended up spinning out and getting stuck near Saginaw and had to get the car towed to a motel til the storm ended and roads improved and didn't get home til noon on turkey day. Shows them for not listening to me.devilsmiley.gif

Yeah I was a fool myself, I took 127 home instead of 75... Needless to say error in judgment there. :)

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cmichweather

cmichweather

Posted
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You know the best part about this, people not from Michigan are probably like wtf.

haha ya, back on topic, looks like the first accumulating snow for the northern plains is forthcoming. Saturday into Sunday could get some light snow at least a few inches, hopefully i don't get picked to spin the DOW overnight saturday for our winter precipitation field study.

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mnweather

mnweather

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haha ya, back on topic, looks like the first accumulating snow for the northern plains is forthcoming. Saturday into Sunday could get some light snow at least a few inches, hopefully i don't get picked to spin the DOW overnight saturday for our winter precipitation field study.

Do you know how much snow northern MN will see. I can't get the NAM or GFS snow overlays from Earl Barkers site. Thanks!

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cmichweather

cmichweather

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Do you know how much snow northern MN will see. I can't get the NAM or GFS snow overlays from Earl Barkers site. Thanks!

i haven't started pulling up bufkits or looking at earl's site yet, just based on model qpf from the past few days i'd say more than a few inches but nothing to extreme. KFGF mentions 2-6 inches this far out and seems reasonable. HPC 4-5 day qpf seems to agree as well, seems like a long duration light snow.

95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif

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mnweather

mnweather

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i haven't started pulling up bufkits or looking at earl's site yet, just based on model qpf from the past few days i'd say more than a few inches but nothing to extreme. KFGF mentions 2-6 inches this far out and seems reasonable. HPC 4-5 day qpf seems to agree as well, seems like a long duration light snow.

95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif

Thanks. Earl Barkers overlays have not updated since last Friday. Kind of frustrating. What do you think about the storm for next Thanksgiving? Think it will be a cutter?

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cmichweather

cmichweather

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Thanks. Earl Barkers overlays have not updated since last Friday. Kind of frustrating. What do you think about the storm for next Thanksgiving? Think it will be a cutter?

My gut says no but it all depends on how the PV situates itself and how deep the trough can dig in the west, as of right now i think the ecmwf 12z won't pan out but we'll see how the systems ahead of it play out.

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JoMo

JoMo

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Thanks. Earl Barkers overlays have not updated since last Friday. Kind of frustrating. What do you think about the storm for next Thanksgiving? Think it will be a cutter?

You can try http://www.twisterdata.com

Just go to the NAM or GFS, click on "Winter" and "Snow Depth" to get an idea of what the model thinks as far as snow on the ground for a specific hour. It will 'melt off' and it will add in snow already on the ground.

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Stebo

Stebo

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My gut says no but it all depends on how the PV situates itself and how deep the trough can dig in the west, as of right now i think the ecmwf 12z won't pan out but we'll see how the systems ahead of it play out.

Yeah I would agree with you, Euro is too amplified and to the left, the GGEM seems to closer to what I'd think would happen.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

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My gut says no but it all depends on how the PV situates itself and how deep the trough can dig in the west, as of right now i think the ecmwf 12z won't pan out but we'll see how the systems ahead of it play out.

Larry Cosgrove thinks it won't be a cutter...his latest from his weather examiner this evening

A huge storm and trough complex now over the

Pacific Ocean will be approaching Houston on the

day before Thanksgiving. I am fairly sure that the

surface low will move in a Colorado/Trinidad "B"

manner (S CO to S KY, then to off of the coastline of

DE/NJ). This system looks to be quite intense, with a

mantle of important rain, ice, and snow to its north

across the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast, and

strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of TX,

OK and the Old South and Mid-Atlantic region into

Thanksgiving evening.

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