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MW/Lakes/OV November 2010 general disco


Hoosier

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Not sure if the Euro does tank the NAO though? It may pump up the ridge out ahead of the big system. This is a situation where the GFS and Euro are at odds and one or the other may be correct, or they may flip flop back and forth the next few runs.

Actually I believe that's a 556dm (could be higher) in Greenland at 168hr, so it's showing some pretty good blocking too...

f168.gif

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12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

the Gem has a lot more energy coming down the trough. would lead to a bigger storm...hopefully if that happens the SE ridge breaks down enough for it to traverse south enough to give most of us some winter. Instead of us getting cold, then having it get ripped way back North in front of a larger storm.

That map has rain here so we know it won't be right.

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Not sure if the Euro does tank the NAO though? It may pump up the ridge out ahead of the big system. This is a situation where the GFS and Euro are at odds and one or the other may be correct, or they may flip flop back and forth the next few runs.

Actually I believe that's a 556dm (could be higher) in Greenland at 168hr, so it's showing some pretty good blocking too...

12zecmwfnao.gif

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Something to watch at least especially for the Eastern lakes and Northern OV.. Lots of scenarios on the table and If I had to uneducated guess (which is all I do) the Euro is the least likely right ATM - Yet I can see how it comes to that solution.. And frankly it wouldn't shock me to get pissed on again right before the cooler air settles in.

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the ensemble mean is the left panel?

Looks cold.

Yep, left panel at hour 216. 0 is down to around N. Carolina on the left while the Deterministic run (right panel) has it up over Northern Michigan. (850 MB temps)

The Euro Ens mean looks a lot like the GFS Deterministic at that time range.

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From what I am seeing in the models is that the GFS is clearly to zonal in flow, the key I'd be watching is the piece of energy that comes in a day after Thanksgiving, it would ride NE up the front as it stalls east of MI/IN. Could very well be some interesting times ahead.

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some early AFD thoughts on next week...

from GLD

BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DESPITE MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUED MEAN

TROUGH OUT WEST...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE AND HOW FAR

WEST TO KEEP THE TROUGH. ENSEMBLES BECOME INCREASINGLY INCONCLUSIVE

BY THIS TIME. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE

OVER THE PACIFIC...BELIEVE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL BE

SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST...EVEN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THIS

MAY BE TOO FAR EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE VERY STRONG LIFT FURTHER

NORTH AND WEST THAN INDICATED.

from DDC

BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT

WEEK...THE LARGE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OR

THE ROCKIES...WILL AMPLIFY AND APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS

SOME INDICATION THAT MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR AT THE BASE OF

THE TROUGH BY MID NEXT WEEK AND WOULD OFFER THE NEXT CHANCE AT

PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BY THIS TIME... GULF OF MEXICO

MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY HAVE ACCESS TO ANY DEVELOPING LOW...AND VERY

COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE CLOSE BY BEHIND THE NEARBY FRONT

DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY AND

AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY FOSTER STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THANKSGIVING TIME

FRAME THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

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This is the third or fourth wave ripping along the polar baroclinic zone. Each subsequent wave allows to the low level cold air to seep a little further SE.

That'll be someone's snowstorm and it'll be more wrapped up than that (and probably quite a bit further west). The cold will follow.

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That'll be someone's snowstorm and it'll be more wrapped up than that (and probably quite a bit further west). The cold will follow.

Frankly, if I had to put money on it, I'd bet on the deeper/further west track. But I think the important point is that the general pattern is now entrenched (a wavy battle zone setting up in the middle of the country next week). The tough part will be timing and placing of the individual waves.

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From what I am seeing in the models is that the GFS is clearly to zonal in flow, the key I'd be watching is the piece of energy that comes in a day after Thanksgiving, it would ride NE up the front as it stalls east of MI/IN. Could very well be some interesting times ahead.

thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

-EPO/-NAO/-AO... if we could get a more of a +PNA I'd like this potential more but it's a long ways out.

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That'll be someone's snowstorm and it'll be more wrapped up than that (and probably quite a bit further west). The cold will follow.

I wouldn't say quite a bit further west, the SE ridge is going to weaken slightly as we move on into late next week, deeper though I could see that. However it should ride the baroclinic zone northeast and there really isnt a strong system east of the ridge to the east to amplify the pattern too much. In other words I'd say its a wait and see.

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thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

-EPO/-NAO/-AO... if we could get a more of a +PNA I'd like this potential more but it's a long ways out.

We will have a developing +PNA to help this storm out.

That's part of the reason why the EURO negatively titled the storm (despite all the other negatives).

Of course you don't want too positive of a PNA (which will frther surpress the storm and force it too far east).

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