mnweather Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I certainly like that Euro run. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Bring that cold down. All of it. Smoother me in its bosoms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Not sure if the Euro does tank the NAO though? It may pump up the ridge out ahead of the big system. This is a situation where the GFS and Euro are at odds and one or the other may be correct, or they may flip flop back and forth the next few runs. Actually I believe that's a 556dm (could be higher) in Greenland at 168hr, so it's showing some pretty good blocking too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 i know it's the JMA but since the euro is showing a storm...JMA showing it also but a day sooner Granted it's the JMA but that is mighty impressive. Just based on the 850 mb prog, highs would probably struggle to get to 20 here if that is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 the Gem has a lot more energy coming down the trough. would lead to a bigger storm...hopefully if that happens the SE ridge breaks down enough for it to traverse south enough to give most of us some winter. Instead of us getting cold, then having it get ripped way back North in front of a larger storm. That map has rain here so we know it won't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Granted it's the JMA but that is mighty impressive. Just based on the 850 mb prog, highs would probably struggle to get to 20 here if that is correct. Oh yea, even with no snow cover, 850s in the -20 to -24c range would have to be just crazy cold and the surface cold would be coming off snow pack as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I'm holding off before making any bold assumptions about copious amts of snowfall piling up in my driveway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 An interesting possibility...that's about all it is at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Saukville will be making snow and telling us how he got 48 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Not sure if the Euro does tank the NAO though? It may pump up the ridge out ahead of the big system. This is a situation where the GFS and Euro are at odds and one or the other may be correct, or they may flip flop back and forth the next few runs. Actually I believe that's a 556dm (could be higher) in Greenland at 168hr, so it's showing some pretty good blocking too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Hmm, on to the Euro Ensembles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Euro Ensemble Mean looks a lot different than the Deterministic run at 216.... A lot different. 850 MB temps would probably be close to the GFS. No storm? http://www.ecmwf.int...rts/medium/eps/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Well we must remember how poorly the ECMWF handled the past 2 storms (Halloween bomb and yesterday's storm) within 48 HOURS. Not to say it's solution isn't plausible (if we can get a strong enough storm) but the overall pattern goes against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Euro Ensemble Mean looks a lot different than the Deterministic run at 216.... A lot different. 850 MB temps would probably be close to the GFS. No storm? http://www.ecmwf.int...rts/medium/eps/ the ensemble mean is the left panel? Looks cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Something to watch at least especially for the Eastern lakes and Northern OV.. Lots of scenarios on the table and If I had to uneducated guess (which is all I do) the Euro is the least likely right ATM - Yet I can see how it comes to that solution.. And frankly it wouldn't shock me to get pissed on again right before the cooler air settles in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 the ensemble mean is the left panel? Looks cold. Yep, left panel at hour 216. 0 is down to around N. Carolina on the left while the Deterministic run (right panel) has it up over Northern Michigan. (850 MB temps) The Euro Ens mean looks a lot like the GFS Deterministic at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 From what I am seeing in the models is that the GFS is clearly to zonal in flow, the key I'd be watching is the piece of energy that comes in a day after Thanksgiving, it would ride NE up the front as it stalls east of MI/IN. Could very well be some interesting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 is it time for snow yet? I'm getting sick of waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 is it time for snow yet? I'm getting sick of waiting. Soon we will get our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 The only positive thing I'll say about the 12z EURO wrt next week's storm is that there appears to be a slight CAD signal, which would surely help out if this thing decides to go west. Not going to get too much deeper into the analysis as by 0z this whole setup will be completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 some early AFD thoughts on next week... from GLD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...DESPITE MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUED MEAN TROUGH OUT WEST...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE AND HOW FAR WEST TO KEEP THE TROUGH. ENSEMBLES BECOME INCREASINGLY INCONCLUSIVE BY THIS TIME. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC...BELIEVE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL BE SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST...EVEN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THIS MAY BE TOO FAR EAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE VERY STRONG LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN INDICATED. from DDC BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE LARGE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OR THE ROCKIES...WILL AMPLIFY AND APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY MID NEXT WEEK AND WOULD OFFER THE NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BY THIS TIME... GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY HAVE ACCESS TO ANY DEVELOPING LOW...AND VERY COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE CLOSE BY BEHIND THE NEARBY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY FOSTER STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THANKSGIVING TIME FRAME THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Soon we will get our chances Hopefully before the fat man with the beard arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Wow... Pretty impressive stretch of wx... Tomorrow shouldn't make it to 40F.. Last time that we didn't hit 40F was MARCH 3rd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 This is the third or fourth wave ripping along the polar baroclinic zone. Each subsequent wave allows to the low level cold air to seep a little further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 HUmmm a little Thanksgiving morning Flurry action down here. Maybe if the 18ZGFS verifies, Like that ever happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 This is the third or fourth wave ripping along the polar baroclinic zone. Each subsequent wave allows to the low level cold air to seep a little further SE. That'll be someone's snowstorm and it'll be more wrapped up than that (and probably quite a bit further west). The cold will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 That'll be someone's snowstorm and it'll be more wrapped up than that (and probably quite a bit further west). The cold will follow. Frankly, if I had to put money on it, I'd bet on the deeper/further west track. But I think the important point is that the general pattern is now entrenched (a wavy battle zone setting up in the middle of the country next week). The tough part will be timing and placing of the individual waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 From what I am seeing in the models is that the GFS is clearly to zonal in flow, the key I'd be watching is the piece of energy that comes in a day after Thanksgiving, it would ride NE up the front as it stalls east of MI/IN. Could very well be some interesting times ahead. -EPO/-NAO/-AO... if we could get a more of a +PNA I'd like this potential more but it's a long ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 That'll be someone's snowstorm and it'll be more wrapped up than that (and probably quite a bit further west). The cold will follow. I wouldn't say quite a bit further west, the SE ridge is going to weaken slightly as we move on into late next week, deeper though I could see that. However it should ride the baroclinic zone northeast and there really isnt a strong system east of the ridge to the east to amplify the pattern too much. In other words I'd say its a wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 -EPO/-NAO/-AO... if we could get a more of a +PNA I'd like this potential more but it's a long ways out. We will have a developing +PNA to help this storm out. That's part of the reason why the EURO negatively titled the storm (despite all the other negatives). Of course you don't want too positive of a PNA (which will frther surpress the storm and force it too far east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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