NYCSuburbs Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Areas that are 44 degrees are snowing in Southern Jersey. Accumulating in heavier bursts in other areas. We should all be having fun in a couple hours. Rain/snow line is crashing SE and is already near Philadelphia and even northern Delaware according to the Intellicast radar (Link), and apparently there's also sleet falling in parts of NJ that's not shown in the radar. Things should get much more interesting here soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Light sleet with flakes mixed it. Winter is here boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Snow now. I'm in love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Snow now. I'm in love. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Snow now. I'm in love. Lucky, precip is hitting a wall just to the NW of you Whats your temp/dp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 sleet and rain down at the jersey shore(im in barneget) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Snow now. I'm in love. Awesome! Great call yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Awesome! Great call yesterday. Flurries in Millburn, been very lightly snowing for about 20 mins now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Lucky, precip is hitting a wall just to the NW of you Whats your temp/dp? I've still got 39/17 but it's about an hour old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Awesome! Great call yesterday. Thanks buddy, never deny the power of mid level WAA and evaporational cooling...even this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Seems to be more like very light sleet at the moment..but the intensity is very low at this point. Barely recognizable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Snowing moderately for an hour down in Southern NJ - Moorestown. WHat a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 If we can get some of the heavier echos up this way, it would likely fall as snow..but it's going to be a tough task given the dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 It's pretty clear by looking at the NWS graphical forecast that Upton is the outlier in this case. Everyone else has moderate snow/sleet around 1 PM and they have a few rain showers, and they have POP chances way too low. Well looks liike they finally updated up here in the far NW zones.. Snow/Sleet for today & tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Thanks buddy, never deny the power of mid level WAA and evaporational cooling...even this time of year. Yeah, it was borderline even with partial thicknesses. Usually, I tip towards a slightly colder scenario when that happens. Wetbulbing with light east winds at the surface will do that trick. Big evapo cooling, but little marine contamination at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 I wonder if I'll still be able to squeeze out a few flakes with a wet bulb temperature of 33F. Time will tell, but I'm leaning no! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Well, would you look at that - I hear sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Yeah, it was borderline even with partial thicknesses. Usually, I tip towards a slightly colder scenario when that happens. Wetbulbing with light east winds at the surface will do that trick. Big evapo cooling, but little marine contamination at the same time. It's funny because I had a feeling there was going to be something falling on the leading edge of the mid level WAA, even despite the guidance depicting almost nothing for a while. It always happens that way. What's funnier is how slow the NAM is, even to this day, with these types of situations. I don't know how it handles the isentropic lifting at that level but it just can't seem to handle these types of situations. It caught on yesterday, finally, but it was still several hours too slow with the precip. The wetbulbing potential was pretty obvious from the get go a few days ago...but it's kinda cool to see it come to fruition. Hopefully some of those heavier echos can get up here..it's a long shot but I know at this point it would mix down some more flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 NJZ002>005-011-NYZ067-069-252245- WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-UNION-ORANGE- ROCKLAND- 1141 AM EST THU NOV 25 2010 ...LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH RAIN AT TIMES. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...SLIPPERY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON SECONDARY ROADS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. PRECIP WILL BEGIN SHORTLY ACROSS ESSEX AND UNION COUNTIES IN NJ...AND SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD. THOSE TRAVELING THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS SHOULD LEAVE EXTRA TRAVEL TIME...SLOW DOWN AND BE WARY OF CHANGING ROAD CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 It's funny because I had a feeling there was going to be something falling on the leading edge of the mid level WAA, even despite the guidance depicting almost nothing for a while. It always happens that way. What's funnier is how slow the NAM is, even to this day, with these types of situations. I don't know how it handles the isentropic lifting at that level but it just can't seem to handle these types of situations. It caught on yesterday, finally, but it was still several hours too slow with the precip. The wetbulbing potential was pretty obvious from the get go a few days ago...but it's kinda cool to see it come to fruition. Hopefully some of those heavier echos can get up here..it's a long shot but I know at this point it would mix down some more flakes. I use a product that has 850-500mb RH and VV. You may have seen me post it. I didn't look to see what the models had yesterday, so maybe it was wrong. Many times when you have a finger of high RH in the mid levels, but no precip corresponding at the surface, it could be a red flag. This says two things to me. 1) we have very dry air at the surface. 2) It might not be giving enough respect to how the lift is generating qpf. This has worked for me before. It's also a good way of identifying heavier snow banding during storms. Today, it's doing a nice way of showing a very brief period of snow along the leading edge of the line of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 snowing moderately in Blairstown, Warren County for about a half hour now. Temperature was up to 36 before it started now it is down to 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Some snow grains/sleet in staten island the last 5 min or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Snow has commenced here in Glen Ridge NJ....quite light. But nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 I use a product that has 850-500mb RH and VV. You may have seen me post it. I didn't look to see what the models had yesterday, so maybe it was wrong. Many times when you have a finger of high RH in the mid levels, but no precip corresponding at the surface, it could be a red flag. This says two things to me. 1) we have very dry air at the surface. 2) It might not be giving enough respect to how the lift is generating qpf. This has worked for me before. It's also a good way of identifying heavier snow banding during storms. Today, it's doing a nice way of showing a very brief period of snow along the leading edge of the line of precip. I've used that several times as well. The guidance finally began to catch on yesterday, but as you alluded to those maps were showing the red flag for several runs prior to that. The dry air was probably the big kicker in the guidance forecasts--but you and I both know light precipitation can fall in these situations 8 times out of 10 at least. The 12z NAM was even off--it had literally nothing here this afternoon at all, but you can see the evaporational cooling which doesn't make much sense. It's been all over the place lately. Going back to the image you posted...I used those about 20 times last winter in trying to pinpoint the heaviest deform axis during the snowstorms. It's really a terrific tool..obviously to be used with other things, but it really helps answer a ton of other questions you would have if you were just looking at the basic output on NCEP or PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Light snow is back here, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 The RUC is doing a great job of depicting the area of very low dew points. Interesting to note it brings in a band of .10"/3hr precipitation around 0000z tonight while keeping temperatures in the low to mid 30's away from the city in New Jersey. Dew points rise into the lower 30's by that point, but it will be interesting to see if areas with elevation can hold on to frozen precipitation. Not likely, but possible. Low dew point image link is below...cool stuff. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RUCNE_12z/f03.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Yeah, just took a look at the soundings for the RUC and it's definitely liquid by that point. Using KMMU, the surface remains rather cold, probably 34-36 degrees, but the mid level WAA nose is broad and extends down to around 900mb. 850 temps are probably closing in on 5 C at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Snow intensity is picking up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Nothing yet in Monmouth county. OVC and 43F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Snowing at a good clip here in edison......earthlight great call on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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