earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Still drop into the 20's soon up this way.. 32*/13* You stoked for some flakes or pingers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 You stoked for some flakes or pingers? Cant wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Cant wait... I'm still convinced most people away from urban areas, especially KEWR's tropical subclimate, will see flakes to start..possibly sleet as well (although the warm layer near H850 does get pretty broad, so it might be a flakes or rain type deal). It might not last long, and it's not the most exciting thing...but at this point in the season, flakes are flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 I'm still convinced most people away from urban areas, especially KEWR's tropical subclimate, will see flakes to start..possibly sleet as well (although the warm layer near H850 does get pretty broad, so it might be a flakes or rain type deal). It might not last long, and it's not the most exciting thing...but at this point in the season, flakes are flakes. I think Areas 50+ miles NW of the coast start as sn flip to an extended period of ip/zr then plain rain early friday morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 The level of evaporational cooling is pretty impressive, no matter how you look at it, on model forecasts. Having temperatures fall back several degrees to the mid 30's in November during the mid-afternoon is pretty impressive. A glance at the forecast soundings and regional OBS suggests several things to me. First of all, the precipitation is going to have a pretty big mountain to climb, and it's going to take some stronger WAA to get the moisture up into our area. The soundings indicate this with warming mid level temperatures by afternoon tomorrow. Especially in situations like this, the mid level warm air push is often under-forecast..which suggests to me the potential for sleet, especially given the degree of dry air in place at the moment. I think most areas away from the city start as sleet--then flip to rain. For areas further north and west and with more elevation, things may become a bit more dicey, where the chance for snow and freezing rain may continue for up to a couple of hours during the initial batch of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 I just took my cousins dog for a walk...call it the first time I came back absolutely frozen since last winter. you're not walking the dog naked again, are ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 you're not walking the dog naked again, are ya? Only in snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 The level of evaporational cooling is pretty impressive, no matter how you look at it, on model forecasts. how wet do you think the the game at the meadowlands be? i'm hoping that band pushes thru and leaves a window for the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Temp still dropping nicely... 29.6*/13* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 how wet do you think the the game at the meadowlands be? i'm hoping that band pushes thru and leaves a window for the game. i hope its not bad enough for any delays, but the precip should be here by gametime unfortunately, but shouldnt be too heavy. Go Jets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Even despite the layer of clouds it is absolutely frigid outside. I just took my cousins dog for a walk...call it the first time I came back absolutely frozen since last winter. I like what I feel. I was walking my dog tonight and know what you're talking about. It's not like temps are that cold tonight ... it's still only in the upper 30s here. We've certainly had many nights so far this season that were colder than this, due to radiational cooling. But despite the temps not being as cold tonight, it just felt different. You can feel a bite in the air that was not there other nights. You can just feel how close winter is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 There's sleet in the general DC area right now, so I'd be confident NYC sees something later this morning as well... just another tease like the event a few weeks ago, but a nice reminder that winter is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 35/15 Dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Happy thanksgiving guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 38.2 and cloudy. Temps didn't drop off last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Dew points are very low around the area. Im at 19. If we can get that precip in here, even the coast can see some frozen. Similar to that snow/sleet a couple weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Monthly departure roundup: EWR: +1.2 NYC: +1.0 TTN: +0.8 PHL: +1.4 It will be real close for most locations whether we can break the above normal streak. It wasnt looking this close a week agao with the expected cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Monthly departure roundup: EWR: +1.2 NYC: +1.0 TTN: +0.8 PHL: +1.4 It will be real close for most locations whether we can break the above normal streak. It wasnt looking this close a week agao with the expected cold. Our overnight lows are killing us. With the exception of two warm afternoons, we haven't had any real heat. The lows however have been farther away from average and at the end of the month it adds up. Like you said, it's going to be real close now that the deep freeze is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 I see some people in Philly are seeing sleet. If the precip can advance before the warmer temps come in, we will have a chance at some frozen stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Precip is making a steady advance east. Great sign that Atlantic County is seeing sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Precip is making a steady advance east. Great sign that Atlantic County is seeing sleet. Yeah dps are still very low here even though temps are moving steadily upwards. The 12z NAM had about .05" of QPF that would likely be frozen for KHPN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 im down in barneget nj this thanksgiving. Ill let you know what it does here. about 20-30 miles north of AC and about 3 miles inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 The NAM looks like it busted too slow, the precipitation is a few hours ahead of where yesterday's NAM runs had it, which isn't too surprising given its slow bias. While it will take some time until the precipitation can reach NYC, probably until at least early this afternoon, there's a chance I could see some snow/sleet in NE NJ, with frozen precipitation a lock for NW NJ. Upton for some reason is still expecting only a 30% chance of light rain for almost all of their area after 3 PM... I'm pretty sure that will be changed later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 The NAM looks like it busted too slow, the precipitation is a few hours ahead of where yesterday's NAM runs had it, which isn't too surprising given its slow bias. While it will take some time until the precipitation can reach NYC, probably until at least early this afternoon, there's a chance I could see some snow/sleet in NE NJ, with frozen precipitation a lock for NW NJ. Upton for some reason is still expecting only a 30% chance of light rain for almost all of their area after 3 PM... I'm pretty sure that will be changed later today. Yeah I think there going warm and slow on this one...looks to be busting already as many areas that were expected to have only rain have already reported snow and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Yeah I think there going warm and slow on this one...looks to be busting already as many areas that were expected to have only rain have already reported snow and sleet Upton has a loong history with this up this way.. Its almost like they purposely wait for the precip to start before making an accurate forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Yeah I think there going warm and slow on this one...looks to be busting already as many areas that were expected to have only rain have already reported snow and sleet It's pretty clear by looking at the NWS graphical forecast that Upton is the outlier in this case. Everyone else has moderate snow/sleet around 1 PM and they have a few rain showers, and they have POP chances way too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 a bit of on and off light sleet in the last 30 minutes in east brunswick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 i hope its not bad enough for any delays, but the precip should be here by gametime unfortunately, but shouldnt be too heavy. Go Jets! football delays? no such thing.... except for the 3 so far at the meadowlands this season. they've been delayed twice by too much electricity (lightning). and delayed once by not enough electricity (power failure). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Areas that are 44 degrees are snowing in Southern Jersey. Accumulating in heavier bursts in other areas. We should all be having fun in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Areas that are 44 degrees are snowing in Southern Jersey. Accumulating in heavier bursts in other areas. We should all be having fun in a couple hours. Yup Give it a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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