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NYC/Tri-State Area OBS and Disco


earthlight

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The latest NAM run is coming in, and looks similar to the 12z NAM, though it's a degree or two warmer:

Source

18z was def. a warm outlier as far as 2m temps go. A lot of the frozen precipitation potential depends on the precipitation timing--and the NAM still seems too slow in that regard. I think areas away from the city still stand a decent shot at seeing something frozen for a brief period tomorrow as the precipitation begins.

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Cloudy here...definitely not helping. Thickness has increased a bit over the past hour, too.

Yeah OKX has low-20s across the northern zones.. not sure we're gonna see that. We don't have ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight with clouds moving in. To get low-20s, which is a good 10 below normal on the lows, we'd have to have clear and calm conditions.

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Yeah OKX has low-20s across the northern zones.. not sure we're gonna see that. We don't have ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight with clouds moving in. To get low-20s, which is a good 10 below normal on the lows, we'd have to have clear and calm conditions.

Yeah not seeing it 36.5/13 here, but with the clouds building i doubt we get that low.

Friday night looks good for some 20's

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Yeah OKX has low-20s across the northern zones.. not sure we're gonna see that. We don't have ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight with clouds moving in. To get low-20s, which is a good 10 below normal on the lows, we'd have to have clear and calm conditions.

They did expect mainly clear skies until at least 10-11 PM for N/E Connecticut where they're expecting the lower 20s. It looks like the clouds are already here, but they're having a hard time moving east.

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They did expect mainly clear skies until at least 10-11 PM for N/E Connecticut where they're expecting the lower 20s. It looks like the clouds are already here, but they're having a hard time moving east.

Yeah some good Northwesterly flow ahead of the event, making it hard for the clouds and precip to build in. But they will eventually, maybe sooner than we though, front edge is already in central PA

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Yeah some good Northwesterly flow ahead of the event, making it hard for the clouds and precip to build in. But they will eventually, maybe sooner than we though, front edge is already in central PA

Yeah look at obs from BFD to AVP to 12N .. not really looking promising if you want to get cold tonight. Those areas under thickening clouds and temps holding in the 30s. DP depressions at 11 PM of 30F and we aren't dropping off? Not a good sign.

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Point and click forecast has a high of 41 for tomorrow. Brrrr.

nam going with fri night lows in the upper 20's/ low 30's in the big cities, getting colder as you head NW. Now that calls for a brrr, especially since we have been acclimated to the insanely mild temps over the last 6 months.

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I also noticed that the winds are pretty stiff out of the north, and while that is a cold wind direction, it also killed any chance for the usual cool spots to radiate (in addition to the clouds.)

The real cold air is out west (as usual). Look at the central plains with widespread temps well below zero. Even places in OK/TX are colder than here.

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