earthlight Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 rapidly burning off now. more of a hazy type look outside, and very warm sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 heavy heavy fog this morning. struggling to break through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 heavy heavy fog this morning. struggling to break through. getting too much of CTblizz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 heavy heavy fog this morning. struggling to break through. :gun_bandana: this isn't SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 rapidly burning off now. more of a hazy type look outside, and very warm sun. very similar to the days right before thanksgiving of 2001-2002 IIRC. :thumbsdown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Sleet potential continues to be advertised on soundings Thursday Night into Saturday morning away from the immediate urban areas with extremely dry air and the potential to wet bulb. Throw in a cold surface and good timing (00-06z) with the initial batch of mid level WAA-aided precip..and you have the potential for some wintry mix type precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Sleet potential continues to be advertised on soundings Thursday Night into Saturday morning away from the immediate urban areas with extremely dry air and the potential to wet bulb. Throw in a cold surface and good timing (00-06z) with the initial batch of mid level WAA-aided precip..and you have the potential for some wintry mix type precipitation. Problem is that there is barely any precip for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Problem is that there is barely any precip for that period. I'm not calling for heavy sleet, but there's enough to do the trick. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_6z/f66.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Sleet potential continues to be advertised on soundings Thursday Night into Saturday morning away from the immediate urban areas with extremely dry air and the potential to wet bulb. Throw in a cold surface and good timing (00-06z) with the initial batch of mid level WAA-aided precip..and you have the potential for some wintry mix type precipitation. Would ideally like to see it colder for longer below 850 to give the precip time to re-freeze, would also like to see it drier so it can really wetbulb, but yea, there is def. a chance of sleet from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm not calling for heavy sleet, but there's enough to do the trick. http://www.meteo.psu...TAPA_6z/f66.gif Exactly my point. That is barely .01" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 OKX seems to agree..including a Wintry Mix in the local forecast--as well as discussing p-type issues with the initial batch of precipitation. It should be relatively light. ...EXCEPT HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF WAA PRECIP ON THU SINCE IT ALWAYS SEEMS TO FLY IN HERE AND MODELS ARE TOO SLOW UNLESS THERE IS A VERY STRONG HIGH MOVING OUT. COULD BE SOME P-TYPE ISSUES ALSO AT THE ONSET N AND W OF NYC WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE VALLEYS AND EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. THE EXTENT OF THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIP WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Exactly my point. That is barely .01" of precip. Actually, it's closer to 0.10" of precipitation in 3 hours on twisterdata maps. I don't know why we are talking about exact amounts anyway--the point is the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Sleet potential continues to be advertised on soundings Thursday Night into Saturday morning away from the immediate urban areas with extremely dry air and the potential to wet bulb. Throw in a cold surface and good timing (00-06z) with the initial batch of mid level WAA-aided precip..and you have the potential for some wintry mix type precipitation. I don't see much opportunity for wetbulbing in that sounding. If anything it says drizzle (correction: rain) to me. If it can find a surface <0C, then maybe some very light icing at those locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 I don't see much opportunity for wetbulbing in that sounding. If anything it says drizzle (correction: rain) to me. If it can find a surface <0C, then maybe some very light icing at those locations. That sounding is after the precip starts--here's the link to about 3 hours prior where there is still some wetbulb potential. It's going to be close..I think the potential is there for some frozen precipitation away from the urban areas. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=40.9799&sounding.lon=-74.6301&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2010&model_mm=11&model_dd=23&model_init_hh=06&fhour=63¶meter=PCPIN&level=3&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false&sounding=y&sndclick=y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 GETTING BACK TO THE AIR ALOFT, THE WAA SURGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ABOVE 850MB AND WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN MODEL PROGS IS THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF THE DRY AIR MASS BELOW THIS PUSH AS AT 850MB BELOW FREEZING TEMPS DEVELOP. COUPLE THIS WITH THE PCPN ARRIVAL TOWARD DAWN, PRETTY MUCH OPENS UP A PANDORA`S BOX OF PTYPES N AND W OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, MAYBE SOME SLEET INTO THE LOCAL PHL AREA. WITHOUT GETTING INTO TOO MANY DETAILS AND BE WRONG AT THIS FCST TIME PERIOD, WE DID LEAN THE FCST MORE PESSIMISTICALLY WITH DIFFERENT PTYPES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS AT THE LEAST POINT TO SLEET AND OUR TOP DOWN METHOD DID GENERATE PLENTY OF IT. WE THEN HAVE OUR POCONO PROBLEM OF POSSIBLY EVAP COOLING THE SFC TO BELOW FREEZING AND THEN STRUGGLE TO RISE FROM THERE OPENING THE DOOR TO ICING ESP IN THE HIER TERRAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 GETTING BACK TO THE AIR ALOFT, THE WAA SURGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ABOVE 850MB AND WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN MODEL PROGS IS THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OF THE DRY AIR MASS BELOW THIS PUSH AS AT 850MB BELOW FREEZING TEMPS DEVELOP. COUPLE THIS WITH THE PCPN ARRIVAL TOWARD DAWN, PRETTY MUCH OPENS UP A PANDORA`S BOX OF PTYPES N AND W OF THE I95 CORRIDOR, MAYBE SOME SLEET INTO THE LOCAL PHL AREA. WITHOUT GETTING INTO TOO MANY DETAILS AND BE WRONG AT THIS FCST TIME PERIOD, WE DID LEAN THE FCST MORE PESSIMISTICALLY WITH DIFFERENT PTYPES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. FCST SOUNDINGS AT THE LEAST POINT TO SLEET AND OUR TOP DOWN METHOD DID GENERATE PLENTY OF IT. WE THEN HAVE OUR POCONO PROBLEM OF POSSIBLY EVAP COOLING THE SFC TO BELOW FREEZING AND THEN STRUGGLE TO RISE FROM THERE OPENING THE DOOR TO ICING ESP IN THE HIER TERRAIN. its marginal. Important to highlight it with holiday travel and what not but the levels warm so quickly, these setups disspoint 7/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 its marginal. Important to highlight it with holiday travel and what not but the levels warm so quickly, these setups disspoint 7/10. It is what it is...potential is there...not calling for an epic sleet/wintry mix storm. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 It is what it is...potential is there...not calling for an epic sleet/wintry mix storm. We will see. Agreed that conditions are there. But only problem, as stated before, is lack of precip. Thru hour 66 on 12z NAM, soundings show .01" for EWR. Anything after hour 66, is very warm. If we get some precip earlier then expected, and a little more then forecasted, then we have a good shot at mix precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 We are socked in with clouds here now...heavy dissapointment for those wishing for a torch this afternoon. The southerly flow will still keep things warm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 We are socked in with clouds here now...heavy dissapointment for those wishing for a torch this afternoon. The southerly flow will still keep things warm, though. Works in very well with my forecast for today. Also, I am aboard the sleet train. We've seen this countless times in this setup where the precipitation starts as sleet due to low dew points at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 We are socked in with clouds here now...heavy dissapointment for those wishing for a torch this afternoon. The southerly flow will still keep things warm, though. Yeah the clouds got in the way. Helping pave the way for the first below normal month since Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Works in very well with my forecast for today. Also, I am aboard the sleet train. We've seen this countless times in this setup where the precipitation starts as sleet due to low dew points at the onset. Agreed, we tend to see a little frozen to start before the midlevels torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 We are socked in with clouds here now...heavy dissapointment for those wishing for a torch this afternoon. The southerly flow will still keep things warm, though. NYC is up to 60F and had a low of 52F last night...sounds like a torch to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 NYC is up to 60F and had a low of 52F last night...sounds like a torch to me. NYC's lows dont count 44 here at 6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 NYC's lows dont count 44 here at 6am 44F is way above average for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 NYC's lows dont count 44 here at 6am Let's leave low temperatures out of the equation, because they are too variable. My low was 47 and I live in an urban location. If you want to play the low game, NYC probably gets below 52 before midnight tonight anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 The word "torch" is being tossed around way too much. When I think about the word torch, I think about 70's +. 50's and 60's isn't a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 NYC is up to 60F and had a low of 52F last night...sounds like a torch to me. I got up to 66 yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I got up to 66 yesterday I was 65, but I believe we're talking about today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Looking forward to this front to bring lower temps. Lows in the mid 30's tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.