Alpha5 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Upton LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE TN VALLEY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND UPPERTROUGH DIG INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THENORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUN. PRECIP BEGINS SUN MORNING...POSSIBLY AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS AND SNOW INLANDBEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUN AFTERNOON AS INCREASING SOUTHERLYWINDS PUSH MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE 40S.WITH LOW PRES INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...A STRONGSOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...AND THE LOCAL AREASHOULD REMAIN WARM SECTORED FOR MUCH OF THE DURATION OF THE STORM ASH8 TEMPS CLIMB TO +10C SUN NIGHT/MON. BEST FORCING SHOULD BE WEST OFTHE LOCAL AREA...BUT WITH PWAT OVER 1 INCH...CAN EXPECT PERIODSOF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT. MAIN ISSUE WILL BEWHEN SYSTEM DEPARTS HOW FAST IT WILL TAKE FOR THE COLD AIR TOSPREAD INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR THEINTERIOR SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...BUT THE CHANGESHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MON MORNING. BY THEN...MOSTOF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA AS THE SYSTEMDEPARTS...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWMON MORNING ACROSS THE CITY WITH A BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE LOWERHUDSON VALLEY BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE MON MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 7:56am Cold as f*** degrees Clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Forgot to mention, another dusting Roads and cars covered.. So that's three traces of snow thus far this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Forgot to mention, another dusting Roads and cars covered.. So that's three traces of snow thus far this winter wow.. you really got lucky with that banding. I think a few mornings ago, we got a bit of a covering, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Upton LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE TN VALLEY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND UPPERTROUGH DIG INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH THENORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUN. PRECIP BEGINS SUN MORNING...POSSIBLY AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS AND SNOW INLANDBEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUN AFTERNOON AS INCREASING SOUTHERLYWINDS PUSH MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE 40S.WITH LOW PRES INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST...A STRONGSOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...AND THE LOCAL AREASHOULD REMAIN WARM SECTORED FOR MUCH OF THE DURATION OF THE STORM ASH8 TEMPS CLIMB TO +10C SUN NIGHT/MON. BEST FORCING SHOULD BE WEST OFTHE LOCAL AREA...BUT WITH PWAT OVER 1 INCH...CAN EXPECT PERIODSOF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SUN NIGHT. MAIN ISSUE WILL BEWHEN SYSTEM DEPARTS HOW FAST IT WILL TAKE FOR THE COLD AIR TOSPREAD INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR THEINTERIOR SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...BUT THE CHANGESHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK MON MORNING. BY THEN...MOSTOF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA AS THE SYSTEMDEPARTS...BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWMON MORNING ACROSS THE CITY WITH A BETTER CHANCE ACROSS THE LOWERHUDSON VALLEY BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE MON MORNING. Yeah thats a nice write-up by upton...i think this will be our first salting of the winter monday morning. Temps crashing big time behind the front with preciep and wet ground....plus it will be a monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Forgot to mention, another dusting Roads and cars covered.. So that's three traces of snow thus far this winter Same here, looked measurable where I work in the Southern end of Elizabeth. Got to 21 degrees today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 wow.. you really got lucky with that banding. I think a few mornings ago, we got a bit of a covering, but that's about it. The band the other say from the LES literally sat over my house for hours...it snowed lightly the entire day from late morning into the early morning hours of the overnight. Nothing more than a coating which didn't accumulate until the sun set, but it will still cool to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Same here, looked measurable where I work in the Southern end of Elizabeth. Got to 21 degrees today. Yeah, same, but I'll just call it La Trace #3 and not freeze to death measuring 0.001" of snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Got down to 17º in the hills overlooking TornadoJays neighborhood .... Am I the only one who loves cold weather, even without the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 13.5 was the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Got down to 17º in the hills overlooking TornadoJays neighborhood .... Am I the only one who loves cold weather, even without the snow? Im starting to like the cold......hope it gets bone chiling next week. I love snow, but if i cant have that lets have the cold. Its better then 60 in December and people enjoying it, while im miserable. Lets just have everyone miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 A snippet from the discussion from the nymetrowx blog.. http://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/p/forecast-discussion.html The handling of the upcoming storm for this forecast was a blend of the 21z SREF/Canadian/Euro. The GFS looks too fast so it was discounted. By SAT night, a weak sfc low looks to form over the southeast coast along a baroclinic zone. This low will push north. The models are all weaker with the energy coming into the central states compared to last night. The GFS is so weak that it takes the low from its prev run and brings it well to the north. Since the GFS is so fast, it doesn't amplify the trof as much as the preferred guidance mentioned. The GFS ensembles are in agreement with the operational GFS, but the 00z run is quite a shift from its 12z run. Actually, I like the old 12z run compared to the 00z run tonight as that run looks a lot like the preferred 00z solutions shown tonight. The guidance have precip coming up the coast from the southeast low late SAT night. Temps over the area will be cooling and the low level temp profiles still look iffy for some mixed precip outside of the city. This will have to be watched. For SUN, the trof continues to amplify and a surface low will move in from the west and then redevelop to the east and come up from the southwest. The GFS is farther east and actually tries to put more focus on the weak coastal low, and the Canadian does as well. Rain is likely on SUN with this storm and given the 00z GFS is a bit cooler, I kept the temps the same from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Looks like Berkeley heights got down to 17 or so this morning just after 5. NAM is even colder tonight and has good radiating conditions early on, going to be another very cold night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Basking Ridge got down to 15 as well..and High Point went down to 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Forgot to mention, another dusting Roads and cars covered.. So that's three traces of snow thus far this winter On the way in to work, thru Phillipsburg,NJ there was a dusting to 1/2 inch, they treated the main road there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 The snow I had this morning melted almost as fast as Feb 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Got down to 17º in the hills overlooking TornadoJays neighborhood .... Am I the only one who loves cold weather, even without the snow? No! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 This quote is from this mornings AFD out of ALB: "IN SHORT...WE COULD END UP GETTING BURIED...FLOODED...OR A MESS OF SLOP AND SLEET..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I noticed from the train in Roselle Park that it looked like more than just frost but wasn't sure. Same here, looked measurable where I work in the Southern end of Elizabeth. Got to 21 degrees today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 NWS going decidedly snowier with the 10a.m. update for my neck of the woods. I don't expect a blizzard, but it's interesting that they have been trending whiter rather than wetter: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=okx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=77&map.y=172&site=OKX This quote is from this mornings AFD out of ALB: "IN SHORT...WE COULD END UP GETTING BURIED...FLOODED...OR A MESS OF SLOP AND SLEET..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Lovely morning it was. CDW got down to: 19 degrees. Tonight low is expected 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The park is holding at 29 degrees as of 1PM with full sunshine. I don't think they'll get to the mid 30's today as forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I was 22 this morning...The Westerleigh section of Staten Island must have gotten a good snow flurry over night because there were traces of snow on the ground and cars...Looked like it was more than a trace... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The park is holding at 29 degrees as of 1PM with full sunshine. I don't think they'll get to the mid 30's today as forecasted. Helps when the thermometer is under a canopy of trees. EWR, LGA, JFK all a few degrees warmer. If it hits 33 at LGA and JFK, mid-30s verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Helps when the thermometer is under a canopy of trees. EWR, LGA, JFK all a few degrees warmer. If it hits 33 at LGA and JFK, mid-30s verifies. The park takes temps in the shade and the others take temps in the sun on the tarmac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 The park takes temps in the shade and the others take temps in the sun on the tarmac. I don't think that's much of a problem today with good mixing on gusty 25 mph winds out of the NW. I could see if winds were light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Helps when the thermometer is under a canopy of trees. EWR, LGA, JFK all a few degrees warmer. If it hits 33 at LGA and JFK, mid-30s verifies. What shade there are no leaves on the trees. Plus the thermometers aren't affected by shade come on dude. Otherwise the "sunny" sensors would read like 120 in the summer. Plus what makes LGA' sensor better to use? I wouldn't use their temperatures for anything. Anyway it's 4PM and the highest temperature is LGA at 32. That's also the highest max for the day. JFK at 30 and the park at 29. Looks like a bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 I don't think that's much of a problem today with good mixing on gusty 25 mph winds out of the NW. I could see if winds were light. That also voids your argument about the park being under a canopy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 What shade there are no leaves on the trees. Plus the thermometers aren't affected by shade come on dude. Otherwise the "sunny" sensors would read like 120 in the summer. Plus what makes LGA' sensor better to use? I wouldn't use their temperatures for anything. Anyway it's 4PM and the highest temperature is LGA at 32. That's also the highest max for the day. JFK at 30 and the park at 29. Looks like a bust! Agree, has nothing to do with shade. Most other stations in N/CNJ had peak temperatures of 29-31F today, including Morristown, Belmar, Somerville, and Teterboro. MOS busted too high on this airmass - it was colder than progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 What shade there are no leaves on the trees. Plus the thermometers aren't affected by shade come on dude. Otherwise the "sunny" sensors would read like 120 in the summer. Plus what makes LGA' sensor better to use? I wouldn't use their temperatures for anything. Anyway it's 4PM and the highest temperature is LGA at 32. That's also the highest max for the day. JFK at 30 and the park at 29. Looks like a bust! The trees even without leaves will still provide some protection from direct sun. Anyways, standard siting guidelines state that there should be no tall objects near the instrumentation for hundreds of feet in any direction, and in the case of wind instruments 1000 ft minimum in any direction. The Central Park site fails every siting guideline in the book. At least the airports are mostly in compliance despite being on the tarmac. Most ASOSes are in the sun. That's the way it's supposed to be. You're measuring the free atmospheric temperature, and the free atmosphere isn't protected by trees or other man-made objects. The reason they don't read 120 is because they are aspirated. I agree the forecast is going to fall a little short, but I can't blame OKX really for going with mid-30s in the city and upper-20s to near 30 everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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