earthlight Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 From my discussion earlier this morning on the blog http://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/p/forecast-discussion.html Long Term The long term pattern will be characterized best by the word "transition". Initially, a large upper level low and confluent flow will remain over the Northeast United States. Another very cold night Wednesday Night into Thursday morning..followed by slightly higher diurnal maxes Thursday with some rising heights aloft. Major changes then occur aloft as the upper level low over the Northeast shifts northward and erodes the -NAO block over the North Atlantic and Greenland. A clipper shortwave will eject eastward from Alberta towards Southeast Canada. With limited moisture, kept pops low, but a cold enough airmass for snow seems the most likely solution at this point. We could see some mixed precipitation near the coast if the timing is more towards the middle of the day, though, especially considering the surface low's positioning to our northwest. This shortwave shifts northeast and a significant shortwave organizes in the Central United States, amplifying over and east of the Mississippi River and then, as some guidance suggests, phasing with a piece of the Polar Vortex over Central Canada which drops south towards the Great Lakes. The eroded -NAO block and the state of the Pacific (PNA/EPO both unfavorable) suggest this should be a more inland tracking storm system--but we have seen surprising trends amongst guidance a few times over the past few weeks--so we will err on the side of caution here and go rather low with precipitation pops (30-40 percent at this point)..and call it mostly rain. A trend towards a weaker shortwave over the MS valley, or stronger confluence to our north, could mean frozen precipitation issues at the start for our interior counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Still lightly snowing..hasn't stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Still lightly snowing..hasn't stopped. Stopped here was on and off all day yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Since I put the snow birds from last winter back in my signature it has been nothing but cold and wintry here. #justsayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Since I put the snow birds from last winter back in my signature it has been nothing but cold and wintry here. #justsayin And yet the end result is going to be a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Our temperatures right now are nearly the same as coastal Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 this is just crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Got down to 24º...still feels colder though, still a constant light breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Made it down to 29 degrees here in Long Beach this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 it was colder in Jacksonville Fl than by me this morning.. made it down to 24 at Jacksonville.. wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 it was colder in Jacksonville Fl than by me this morning.. made it down to 24 at Jacksonville.. wow! 2nd winter in a row with impressive cold down there, next week looks even colder for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 LGA made it down to 30.0 this morning. Maybe into the 20's in between hours. NYC made it down to 28.0. Forecasted high tomorrow for NYC is 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 it was colder in Jacksonville Fl than by me this morning.. made it down to 24 at Jacksonville.. wow! You need to move out of that valley in Nanuet and go east or west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 You need to move out of that valley in Nanuet and go east or west lol I know, seriously.. I think I'm a little better shape than West Nyack, by the Palisades Center.. that place is in the bottom of the pit. It's nice to see they're finally addressing the flooding situation in that part of Route 59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I know, seriously.. I think I'm a little better shape than West Nyack, by the Palisades Center.. that place is in the bottom of the pit. It's nice to see they're finally addressing the flooding situation in that part of Route 59. Theyve tried for years to address it.....hopefully this fix is the final one. Before the mall even went in....anything over an inch of rain in a shorter than 24 hour span and route 59 would have to be closed. I dont want to get yelled at for being off topic lol...but its really cool seeing the litlte "microclimates" throughout the different parts of Rockland.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Today was the first legit below freezing low, as we were all in the mid to upper 20s-- even LGA was below freezing! Looks like next week, the highs will be in the 20s and the lows in the teens, even in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Today was the first legit below freezing low, as we were all in the mid to upper 20s-- even LGA was below freezing! Looks like next week, the highs will be in the 20s and the lows in the teens, even in the city. Can't wait for that. Snow or no snow, it will still feel awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Sitting at 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Stayed at 31º for a bit...now back into the 20s. Should get below 20 for the first time this season tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 High of 32.4F here... Currently 28.4F and dropping. Clear, winds slackening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Forcast low for me tomorrow night is in the teens...cant remember the last time we had this type of cold in early december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Forcast low for me tomorrow night is in the teens...cant remember the last time we had this type of cold in early december 2005.... We had insane cold right after the December 9th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 2005.... We had insane cold right after the December 9th storm. Yes you would be correct. I had about 8 inches of snow pack.....got down close to zero i think the day of a apps runner........was above 32 by 7pm that day, Pretty much ended winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Today was just another blistering cold and sunny day. Next week will be so much better (colder). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Looks like a cool ocean effect snowband is setting up just south of LI now. You could never tell based on how calm and clear it is right here on the extreme south shore. 30 miles from here is likely experiencing a blizzard. Also, the calm winds seem to finally be allowing the cold temp readings across the area tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 Looked like it was flurrying here a few minutes ago, just checked the radar and it seems I wasn't nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 Looks like a cool ocean effect snowband is setting up just south of LI now. You could never tell based on how calm and clear it is right here on the extreme south shore. 30 miles from here is likely experiencing a blizzard. Also, the calm winds seem to finally be allowing the cold temp readings across the area tonight. If you looked south today, you would have seen the stratocumulus cloud deck associated with that snowband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 If you looked south today, you would have seen the stratocumulus cloud deck associated with that snowband. I did see the cloud deck down there, but it didn't really get organized into a solid band until recently. It's common to see snow showers and squalls/bands develop over the ocean during cold air outbreaks like this. The clouds literally start developing right off shore and become more and more solid the further you look. I guess I know what Toronto sees during the big NW flow lake effect outbreaks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 21 for a low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 19 degree low for me this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.