ag3 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 NYC at 33 and LGA at 35 as of 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 As of this morning, OKX in their zone forecasts are now separating Queens and Nassau Counties into northern and southern areas, and Passaic, Bergen, Essex and Union into western and eastern zones, i.e. NYZ177-052130- NORTHERN NASSAU- 350 AM EST SUN DEC 5 2010 .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND BRISK. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .WEDNESDAY...SUNNY AND BRISK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NYZ179-052130- SOUTHERN NASSAU- 350 AM EST SUN DEC 5 2010 .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WINDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND BREEZY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .WEDNESDAY...SUNNY AND WINDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY AND BRISK. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .THURSDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. I highlighted some subtle differences-slightly lower max temps, predicted in northern Nassau on Thursday and Friday, because of latitude and season, and higher wind gusts in Southern Nassau today, Tuesday and Friday, because of topography-it's flatter, less friction. It will be interesting to see if OKX ever recognizes and forecasts precipitation type differences and amounts between these areas such as rain and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 6z gfs is closer to the coast than the oz run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yes, just a touch closer. Attached are the 6z totals which show NYC getting warning criteria snows with the previous run showing that missing NYC just to east over LI. Amazing consistency though. 6z gfs is closer to the coast than the oz run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 23.2 at 5:50 AM in Blairstown, Warren County, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 31 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I got stuck at 28 last night, so did KHPN....odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 This is the first time that I've ever seen reference to this by OKX (it was in their MFD): .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC LOW BOMBS OUT TONIGHT AS IT HITS NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY MONDAY AM. CYCLONIC NW-W FLOW INCREASES ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. WINDS ARE THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A PEAK OR TWO NEAR 40 BY MIDDAY MONDAY. PUT SCATTERED FLURRIES ALL AREAS...BUT AGAIN NO DUSTING OR ANY TYPE OF ACCUMULATION. THIS IS BASED ON LOW LEVEL CAPE SEEN IN NAM PROFILES WITH UP TO 50 J/KG OF CAPE. KEPT THE SOUND EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE NORTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND - SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HERE ARE POSSIBLE - THOUGH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 This is the first time that I've ever seen reference to this by OKX (it was in their MFD): .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC LOW BOMBS OUT TONIGHT AS IT HITS NOVA SCOTIA AND NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY MONDAY AM. CYCLONIC NW-W FLOW INCREASES ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. WINDS ARE THE BIG STORY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH A PEAK OR TWO NEAR 40 BY MIDDAY MONDAY. PUT SCATTERED FLURRIES ALL AREAS...BUT AGAIN NO DUSTING OR ANY TYPE OF ACCUMULATION. THIS IS BASED ON LOW LEVEL CAPE SEEN IN NAM PROFILES WITH UP TO 50 J/KG OF CAPE. KEPT THE SOUND EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE NORTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND - SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HERE ARE POSSIBLE - THOUGH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. Sound effect snow?? Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Sound effect snow?? Awesome My guess is that they finally begrudgingly acknowledged this phenomena because of the substantial period of time that their office had been relocated in Brookhaven close to where it takes place and because at least one of their forecasters was a member of this forum (or should I say Eastern and possibly now this one) who was familiar with the posts about it or the web site of one of its posters who extensively discusses it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Low was 22.9 in Blairstown, Warren County, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Winds are picking up here. Gusting to 25 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 At Newark record high of 72 i n 2001. Down to a record low of 15 in 1935. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 At Newark record high of 72 i n 2001. Down to a record low of 15 in 1935. At NYC it was 70 in 2001, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 850 AM EST SUN DEC 05 2010 VALID 12Z THU DEC 09 2010 - 12Z SUN DEC 12 2010 GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THRU MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT LEAST THRU NEXT FRIDAY DAY 5. MAJOR DIFFERENCES AND CONTINUITY CHANGES BEGIN TO SHOW LATER DAY 5 FRIDAY AND CARRY THRU THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEGINNING DIFFERENCE IS THE HANDLING OF A FAST MOVING PAC SHORTWAVE COMING INTO THE WEST COAST IN THE LA NINA FLOW REGIME. THE OPERATIONAL 00Z AND 06Z GFS/DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF BUILD MORE EPAC RIDGING NWD ALONG THE WEST COAST DAY6 SAT ALLOWING FOR THIS SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHEAST THRU THE PLAINS. BY DAY 7 SUNDAY BOTH 00Z/06Z GFS/DGEX AND ESPECIALLY 00Z ECMWF HAVE A VERY WELL DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE WITH CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW POTENTIAL. 00Z ECMWF THAN TAKES ANOTHER DIGGING SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD THRU CENTRAL CANADA AND PHASES IT INTO THE OH VALLEY CLOSED LOW LATE DAY 7 AND DAY 8 CREATING A HYPER STORM WITH CONCURRENCE BY DGEX. THIS EXTREME SOLUTION IS SIMILAR TO THE GREAT STORM OF 25-26 NOV 1950. WHAT IS DISCONCERTING IS THAT CPC D+8 TO D+11 ANALOGS HAVE INDICATED A SYNOPTIC PATTERN MATCHING THOSE DATES FOR WEEKS INCLUDING TODAYS. THAT WAS ALSO A LA NINA YEAR WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE NAO. DUE TO DECREASING MODEL VERIFICATION AT THAT TIME WITH A SUDDEN CONTINUITY CHANGE IT IS PRUDENT TO STAY AWAY FOR THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION AT LEAST FOR NOW. WHAT IS AGREED UPON IS THE OVERALL PATTERN OF A RETURN OF WRN CONUS/ROCKY MTN RIDGING AND A DEEP ERN CONUS TROF. 00Z GFS AND 06Z GFS WHILE DIGGING THIS SHORTWAVE AND CREATING A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT ERN CONUS STORM ELIMINATE THE PHASING POTENTIAL OF ECMWF BUT STILL HAVE AN ANALOG CORRELATION TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED NOV 1950 EPISODE. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION THAT STILL YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR CENTRAL AND ERN DEEPENING CYLOGENESIS IS THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS AND THIS WAS USED AS BASE FOR HPC MORNING UPDATED PROGS. ADDITIONAL FRONTAL RAINS COME INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST AND NRN CA WD WITH PCPN SPREADING EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE COMING EWD ALONG THE 49TH PARALLEL WED TO FRI WILL SPREAD A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ND INTO MN AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THE REFORM OFF THE NEW ENG COAST WITH SNOW POTENTIAL OVER COASTAL NEW ENG SAT. UPSTREAM DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL ENHANCE SOME NRN ROCKIES SNOW SAT THEN SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY SUN WITH A REFORMING SFC LOW CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE BUT WINDY SNOW EVENT ACROSS IA/IL AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. ANOTHER VERY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR SURGE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST AND DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE COLD AIR SURGE. ROSENSTEIN Last Updated: 850 AM EST SUN DEC 05 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Interesting read on the Nov. 1950 storm referenced by HPC. Amazing snows in the Appalachians and amazing winds on the East Coast. http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/storm-of-the-century-hits-eastern-us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Interesting read on the Nov. 1950 storm referenced by HPC. Amazing snows in the Appalachians and amazing winds on the East Coast. http://www.history.c...hits-eastern-us That storm caused a blizzard for the Ohio State/Michigan game at Columbus which was the last Ohio State game before Woody Hayes took over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Wow the park is holding at 32 degrees as of 11AM. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Did LGA reach freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It would be amazing to witness such a hyper storm like Nov 1950, but it would also be very disappointing since we would get torrential rains with temperatures in the 50s, 60s. I'll pass on that and hope for a more 06z gfs like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Did LGA reach freezing? Nope. 33. I'm serious. http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KLGA.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 12z NAM finally seems to have caught on to climo...-10 to -11 C 850 temps should equal around 60 at EWR and mid 50's for lows at LGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 12z NAM finally seems to have caught on to climo...-10 to -11 C 850 temps should equal around 60 at EWR and mid 50's for lows at LGA I cant tell if thats fake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 NAM picking up the the Sound Effect potential out on the North Fork Monday. http://forecast.weat...&glossary=1 KEPT THE SOUND EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE NORTH FORK OF LONGISLAND - SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HERE ARE POSSIBLE - THOUGH SFCTEMPS ABOVE FREEZING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 What's wrong with the area stations are they having problems updating their info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 What's wrong with the area stations are they having problems updating their info? Central Park's latest ob is 3PM... 34 degrees, btw! Very cold for this early in the year, especially mid-day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Not out of the realm of possibility that there could be sound effect snow showers over the east end early next week. NAM picking up the the Sound Effect potential out on the North Fork Monday. http://forecast.weat...&glossary=1 KEPT THE SOUND EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE NORTH FORK OF LONGISLAND - SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS HERE ARE POSSIBLE - THOUGH SFCTEMPS ABOVE FREEZING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Yeah,it's the right set up for it to occur.The NAM also has a nice band moving through the south side of NYC Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 36 right now. Low was 30 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 What's wrong with the area stations are they having problems updating their info? Has LGA gone below freezing yet? If not, they will surely do so tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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