Manny Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Yeah, I am at 36 right now. It was 34 this morning, around 7 am, and it sure won't get warmer by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 NYC is at 37... Yeah. Sorry. Looked at wrong site. LGA is at 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I don't think LGA or maybe even NYC get to 32 or below tonight. I hope they do but LGA and NYC are still at 40 degrees. I'm at 36, at parents in law house in Whitestone. Only 3-4 miles east of LGA. LGA should get below freezing this weekend. Why have the lows been so close to the highs this fall? They usually are anyway because of UHI there, but this year Ive noticed it to be a lot worse. Usually when NYC has a high in the mid 40s, it will get to freezing or below at night, but despite several highs in the mid 40s or lower, not once have they made it to freezing or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 It looks like the city won't be able to hit freezing until next week, which will pretty much be a guarantee since highs will probably not get out of the 30s, if they can't get to freezing with highs in the 37-39 range, then I just don't know anymore. I can't believe how powerful the UHI is. People say we're experiencing global warming yet it's these insane micro climates that humans create that have been responsible for any warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 0z GFS ensemble mean has a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I'm willing to bet NYC will have at least a day or two struggling to get to freezing for highs next week! I think they will hit freezing at night before this weekend is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 Man, the GFS is absolutely loaded...I couldn't care less how far southeast it is with the system verbatim. This is absolutely awesome aloft. The block is moving into the 50/50 position and the pacific jet is absolutely roaring. H85 temps are -12 C, and look at the amount of energy coming into the Central US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Not out of the realm of possibility that there could be sound effect snow showers over the east end early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I'm willing to bet NYC will have at least a day or two struggling to get to freezing for highs next week! I think they will hit freezing at night before this weekend is done. I guess it happens more frequently than I would have guessed based on the numbers from NCDC. Nearly a third of January has highs at or below 32? That seems a bit high. I've always thought if you hold highs below freezing in the city, that's a pretty cold air mass meaning the suburbs are staying in the 20s by day and single digits to low teens at night. Average number of days with highs at or below 32 (based on 1971-2000 normals period): December LGA: 3.9 JFK: 3.6 NYC: 4.1 January LGA: 9.1 JFK: 8.2 NYC: 9.2 February LGA: 6.1 JFK: 5.5 NYC: 5.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Man, the GFS is absolutely loaded...I couldn't care less how far southeast it is with the system verbatim. This is absolutely awesome aloft. The block is moving into the 50/50 position and the pacific jet is absolutely roaring. H85 temps are -12 C, and look at the amount of energy coming into the Central US The surface reflection is crap, but like you said the upper levels look really nice.....the potential is definitely there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I guess it happens more frequently than I would have guessed based on the numbers from NCDC. Nearly a third of January has highs at or below 32? That seems a bit high. I've always thought if you hold highs below freezing in the city, that's a pretty cold air mass meaning the suburbs are staying in the 20s by day and single digits to low teens at night. Average number of days with highs at or below 32 (based on 1971-2000 normals period): December LGA: 3.9 JFK: 3.6 NYC: 4.1 January LGA: 9.1 JFK: 8.2 NYC: 9.2 February LGA: 6.1 JFK: 5.5 NYC: 5.5 It's more or less an indication of how much the city has warmed over the past several years, people say it's going to be cold in the city because the highs will be in the 30s yet NYC is supposed to have a few days of highs at or below freezing in December so the temperatures this week and next were are not really a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 It's more or less an indication of how much the city has warmed over the past several years, people say it's going to be cold in the city because the highs will be in the 30s yet NYC is supposed to have a few days of highs at or below freezing in December so the temperatures this week and next were are not really a big deal. What has to happen for you to consider it a big deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 What has to happen for you to consider it a big deal? Negative 20 with 60 mph wind gusts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 What has to happen for you to consider it a big deal? Highs in the mid 20s, lows in the low to mid teens like I've seen back in 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 What has to happen for you to consider it a big deal? January 15-16th 1994 (highs of 19 and 15) and January 19-21st 1994 (highs of 8, 16 and 23). Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 January 15-16th 1994 (highs of 19 and 15) and January 19-21st 1994 (highs of 8, 16 and 23). Lol. THIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 THIS. Lol, You are hilarious, I love this board, Give me 1993-1994 Cold and 1995-96 snow, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Lol, You are hilarious, I love this board, Give me 1993-1994 Cold and 1995-96 snow, lol! No. 2009-2010 snow... Make Feb 5-6th slam us with 24-36", good bye Jan 1996 records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 No. 2009-2010 snow... Make Feb 5-6th slam us with 24-36", good bye Jan 1996 records. Lol, sure why not. 2009-2010 repeat but 50-100 or so miles North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Sunday Night: A slight chance of snow showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 20%. NWS says snow chance sunday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Highs in the mid 20s, lows in the low to mid teens like I've seen back in 2004. Our averages are in the mid and upper 40's right now. How can you not be impressed by high around freezing in early December? 2004 had a very cold January; we're not in January yet. Our averages don't instantly drop to 37 and potential for Arctic cold doesn't just magically appear at the beginning of meteorological winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 12Z GFS has a clipper transitioning to a coastal off New England... looks like a inch or two, verbatim on Dec 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 12z GFS ensemble mean also has a miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Our averages are in the mid and upper 40's right now. How can you not be impressed by high around freezing in early December? 2004 had a very cold January; we're not in January yet. Our averages don't instantly drop to 37 and potential for Arctic cold doesn't just magically appear at the beginning of meteorological winter. Probably because highs AOB freezing occur 4 times on average in December? Granted those days are probably skewed towards the second half of the month, but we're talking about a forecast that is essentially mid-month, so I won't split hairs. Besides, I'd be surprised if we didn't see moderation by the time the really cold air is progged to be in here (late next week). Instead of 32 for highs in the city, we'll see upper-30s at a time when normals will be 44 or 45. By late next week, I expect the cold air to verify on the order of -7 departures in the city instead of -12 to -15. That's like getting excited for a 92 degree day in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 3, 2010 Author Share Posted December 3, 2010 I have to admit, I did chuckle a little bit when I saw this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Probably because highs AOB freezing occur 4 times on average in December? Granted those days are probably skewed towards the second half of the month, but we're talking about a forecast that is essentially mid-month, so I won't split hairs. Besides, I'd be surprised if we didn't see moderation by the time the really cold air is progged to be in here (late next week). Instead of 32 for highs in the city, we'll see upper-30s at a time when normals will be 44 or 45. By late next week, I expect the cold air to verify on the order of -7 departures in the city instead of -12 to -15. That's like getting excited for a 92 degree day in July. I'll be sure to bump this on Thursday. What are you basing the moderation on, besides "it will happen"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 I have to admit, I did chuckle a little bit when I saw this Think optimistically! We're in the eye versus a dry slot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 18z gfs looks promising for the long range storm. I think all we need is a more robust ridge (pna) out west to get this storm to turn the corner sooner. It has a 996mb low off the coast with tons of precip, and originates from the gulf, with tons of cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2010 Share Posted December 3, 2010 Well the most important factor is that it is cold enough for snow, we don't need highs around freezing for that as long as it's cold enough aloft. Although just look at the 18z gfs run, and how much warmer it is for Thursday and Friday, we'd probably get up to 40 for Thursday and the mid to upper 40s for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 4, 2010 Share Posted December 4, 2010 Why are my posts getting deleted? All I said was 18Z GFS had 0.01 liquid over next 16 days, which is a fact? How is that trolling? Am I being suspended? And for what? I doubt you did anything. We have a select few here (very few) that seem to post garbage posts on a regular basis that don't get reprimanded. You are a long time and quality poster so why you'd get warned or suspended is impossible to answer soundly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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