earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Still in the mid 40's here as it has been all day. Clouds moved in about an hour ago and completely capped the sun which was warming things up. Feels like winter....almost smells like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 NAM has surface temps in the mid 60's 18z Tuesday ahead of the shortwave and cold front..looks like the warm weather will have one last laugh before we move into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Still in the mid 40's here as it has been all day. Clouds moved in about an hour ago and completely capped the sun which was warming things up. Feels like winter....almost smells like snow. Actually, the same feeling up here. Some evaporational cooling from low td air passing over the ocean. 37.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Actually, the same feeling up here. Some evaporational cooling from low td air passing over the ocean. 37.5F Only a few weeks away from the real fun starting. Lets hope the 12z GFS has a clue...this would be a pretty exciting cold frontal passage. That shortwave is really strong..and check out the -12 C 850 temps over OH. I think the storm threat in Early Dec has some teeth..but we need the Pac to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 NAM has surface temps in the mid 60's 18z Tuesday ahead of the shortwave and cold front..looks like the warm weather will have one last laugh before we move into winter. ewr makes a run at 70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 ewr makes a run at 70? 850 temps are near 10c which means EWR should make a run at 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 850 temps are near 10c which means EWR should make a run at 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Still in the mid 40's here as it has been all day. Clouds moved in about an hour ago and completely capped the sun which was warming things up. Feels like winter....almost smells like snow. I tell ya its that really dry dewpoint that makes it feel like winter... and smell like snow. Interesting set up here overnight as temps will probably rise some after midnight with SE flow really kicking in as the high shifts offshore. Im sure the metro will bust out of any low clouds Tuesday to really warm ya up but the Island may stay socked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Only a few weeks away from the real fun starting. Lets hope the 12z GFS has a clue...this would be a pretty exciting cold frontal passage. That shortwave is really strong..and check out the -12 C 850 temps over OH. I think the storm threat in Early Dec has some teeth..but we need the Pac to cooperate. The 12/1 timeframe is being signaled on the euro too. Verbatim, it tracks a little too close for comfort, but lets just be happy we have some chances coming up. I think people need to realize that we could very well have a couple of more "warmer" type storms in the future, but also be happy that the nao block and mutliple s/w's coming from the Plains will give us chances. Will and I discussed in the sne threads, that you gotta be happy with the chances coming up, but the details just can't be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 The 12/1 timeframe is being signaled on the euro too. Verbatim, it tracks a little too close for comfort, but lets just be happy we have some chances coming up. I think people need to realize that we could very well have a couple of more "warmer" type storms in the future, but also be happy that the nao block and mutliple s/w's coming from the Plains will give us chances. Will and I discussed in the sne threads, that you gotta be happy with the chances coming up, but the details just can't be determined. Its all about the broad setup at this point...and the signals are good. I pasted the link to the 10 day Euro height departures..the block is insane. The GFS is less enthused and more east-based..but as you said the chances will show up eventually. The Pac is def. going to be a wild card in this set up..but the NAO does it's job to make everything a little "easier" if the Euro is correct. Can you imagine where we would be without the -NAO that's forecast? With the -PNA we would have people jumping off bridges already..especially with the forecast as it is for mid-winter warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 I tell ya its that really dry dewpoint that makes it feel like winter... and smell like snow. Interesting set up here overnight as temps will probably rise some after midnight with SE flow really kicking in as the high shifts offshore. Im sure the metro will bust out of any low clouds Tuesday to really warm ya up but the Island may stay socked in. You're right on target...most short range guidance brings surface temps up 2-5 degrees overnight tonight wtih the winds turning southeast. By tomorrow afternoon and especially Tuesday afternoon...the winds are actually south and southwest in the warm sector. All joking aside I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the usually warmer areas get into the mid 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Behind the front...we will be lucky to get out of the mid 40's on Wed. with gusty NW winds to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 You're right on target...most short range guidance brings surface temps up 2-5 degrees overnight tonight wtih the winds turning southeast. By tomorrow afternoon and especially Tuesday afternoon...the winds are actually south and southwest in the warm sector. All joking aside I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the usually warmer areas get into the mid 60's. Yep I am thinking the same. This will last two days though as it looks like now another damming high will set up before the main arctic front moves through sometime around turkey day so even though mid level ridging goes through the roof, a cool surface high will usher in cooler air before we will warm up yet again before the front passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 18z NAM 850 temps of -6C at 18z Wed...-10 c just north of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Its all about the broad setup at this point...and the signals are good. I pasted the link to the 10 day Euro height departures..the block is insane. The GFS is less enthused and more east-based..but as you said the chances will show up eventually. The Pac is def. going to be a wild card in this set up..but the NAO does it's job to make everything a little "easier" if the Euro is correct. Can you imagine where we would be without the -NAO that's forecast? With the -PNA we would have people jumping off bridges already..especially with the forecast as it is for mid-winter warmth. Yep, just appreciate how it looks, and hopefully one of these pans out. We probably would be in Bermuda shorts if it weren't for the block to our ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 damn...all the local young boys would be in Bermuda shorts if it weren't for the block to our ne. Jesus man...try and keep this forum PG-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Yep I am thinking the same. This will last two days though as it looks like now another damming high will set up before the main arctic front moves through sometime around turkey day so even though mid level ridging goes through the roof, a cool surface high will usher in cooler air before we will warm up yet again before the front passage. The arctic front you're speaking of has my interest...the GFS has been pretty robust with it for a few days. If it's correct and 850 temps get below -10C in PA...that would be some pretty fresh winter air around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The arctic front you're speaking of has my interest...the GFS has been pretty robust with it for a few days. If it's correct and 850 temps get below -10C in PA...that would be some pretty fresh winter air around here. Ive taken notice to it also and think most MOS guidance are way to warm with the air right now which happens when there is a low level arctic airmass. I am actually flying out of ISLIP wednesday morning to head south for the holiday so obviously I am keeping an eye on the weather closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 The arctic front you're speaking of has my interest...the GFS has been pretty robust with it for a few days. If it's correct and 850 temps get below -10C in PA...that would be some pretty fresh winter air around here. Ive taken notice to it also and think most MOS guidance are way to warm with the air right now which happens when there is a low level arctic airmass. I am actually flying out of ISLIP wednesday morning to head south for the holiday so obviously I am keeping an eye on the weather closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 850 temps are near 10c which means EWR should make a run at 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Holiday traffic on the NJTP should help add a few degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Holiday traffic on the NJTP should help add a few degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 it looks like we never get all that cold after thanksgiving... one day of h85 temps near -10c with moderation after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 it looks like we never get all that cold after thanksgiving... one day of h85 temps near -10c with moderation after that If the Euro is correct and the extent of the NAO block does come to fruition..the cold would be sustained for a while. All speculation at this point. Meanwhile 43.2/28 and overcast. We've stopped dropping and I suspect we're going to rise as the SE wind gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 18z GFS has the block..barely lasts long enough. Check out the Miller B that develops...lots of potential here. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_240s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 DGEX behind the front...looks like winter to me http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/f138.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 Meanwhile KOKX radar down until at least Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2010 Author Share Posted November 21, 2010 Meanwhile KOKX radar down to at least Monday. I was hoping to track the geese flying south....cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2010 Share Posted November 21, 2010 DGEX behind the front...looks like winter to me http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/f138.gif Do you think we will see snow flurries and snow showers from the streamers ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Euro building in the cold down the Midwest and into the Great Lakes then poised to spread east in the longer range. It's looking like December will open up in the proverbial icebox. Now all we need is a little storminess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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