40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 fair enough. I just don't like the 42 thousand, give or take a few, disturbances in the flow. Always makes a big storm like threading a needle. Yea, but I think a solid event is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 over CHH (?) something like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This has to be at least the 100th storm since the boards have been in existence where the GFS has done this..this is why it just adds more confusion than help to the end result. Just think..if we didn't have this POS model everyone would be 100% sure this thing was coming gangbusters. Instead the GFS huggers just look at it and worry that it's right. How many times do we go thru this each winter until folks realize it's pure crap. Ignore it..don't use it Correct! Back in the day, I worked with 3 models(baraclinic, baratropic and Limited Fine Mesh). Not saying that it was better then(of course not) but more is not necessarily better and ranking of models based on success needs to be taken into account; especially on a short term basis. Consistency of euro cannot be denied here and as ray said, the 12 z run is big..really big. ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GFS Ensm look similar to the 00z thru 60h just more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Bing Ha....not sure I see the connection... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GFS Ensm look similar to the 00z thru 60h just more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS ensembles look very near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ha....not sure I see the connection... agree...= bing. moving on (but the clip is good for a laugh) 12z ens look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL, dig out the storm drains if the Canadian is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS ensembles look very near the BM. I love them pinned there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GEFS FTW again...benchmark track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This has to be at least the 100th storm since the boards have been in existence where the GFS has done this..this is why it just adds more confusion than help to the end result. Just think..if we didn't have this POS model everyone would be 100% sure this thing was coming gangbusters. Instead the GFS huggers just look at it and worry that it's right. How many times do we go thru this each winter until folks realize it's pure crap. Ignore it..don't use it Ugh. We are actually allowed to talk about the models aren't we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS ensembles look very near the BM. I wish we could just lock this track in. It's the best case scenario for majority of frozen precip for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 wow, that 12Z GGEM is west again Scott wrote about it earlier the thread the needle scenario that the ENS are playing. I guess the inland/west track is not yet off the table...coast runner etc. An extreme solution will win here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL, dig out the storm drains if the Canadian is right. Care to attempt a crazy unc extrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL, dig out the storm drains if the Canadian is right. Cannot be ruled out for the reasons you mentioned prior. Lose the conf over us and it could easily turn the corner. At least we wouldn't have to worry about a rain/snow line in SNE on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LOL, dig out the storm drains if the Canadian is right. i mentioned that the RGEM at 48 hrs is deepeer with the trough and more amplified along the EC, but i didnt think it would go that west with the GGEM lol its likely wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Scott wrote about it earlier the thread the needle scenario that the ENS are playing. I guess the inland/west track is not yet off the table...coast runner etc. An extreme solution will win here I think. You favor the GEM....can't say I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Care to attempt a crazy unc extrap Looks like the 00z euro at hr 78. Probably would come near or just inside BM?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Scott wrote about it earlier the thread the needle scenario that the ENS are playing. I guess the inland/west track is not yet off the table...coast runner etc. An extreme solution will win here I think. Possible but given the rest of the guidance thus far, this would be waaayyy on the western side of current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ugh. We are actually allowed to talk about the models aren't we? sure as long as you agree they are all snow. he's the number 1 snow lobbyist on the board .....stealthly funded by the Big "Cot" industry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 2/06/01 35 miles SE Jerry FTW Tippy the Met wow Ginx, time to get it going again. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLqyvyqQqW0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like the 00z euro at hr 78. Probably would come near or just inside BM?? I think that is your answer....between the BM and the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 sure as long as you agree they are all snow. he's the number 1 snow lobbyist on the board .....stealthly funded by the Big "Cot" industry Well, whatever falls on the GFS is snow.....probably all the way to Antigua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You favor the GEM....can't say I agree. No I favor either a track that does end up on the coast/inland, or an extreme solution over/outside the BM and probably not the canal/ack consensus we've had to this point. Just preliminary, at 4 days I favor nothing. The euro ens, gfs ens, and others have been over the BM many times at this stage when lows tracked over ACK. and near ACK when they tracked over me. Doesn't mean it happens this time but the two sentences that Scott wrote earlier perfectly sum all of this up. It still could turn the corner if things played out right, and all of these BM tracks are relying on a needle being thread. I favor nothing at this point. But I agree with Kev for once that aside of these western outliers this is just business as usual in the leadup. The NOGAPS is over the BM, usually a good sign it isn't going way right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think that is your answer....between the BM and the cape. My guess is near ACK. Will see if DR NO has a say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My guess is near ACK. Will see if DR NO has a say. More like Dr. Yes for this storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My guess is near ACK. Will see if DR NO has a say. I agree. Hopefully the EURO's sleet fest s of the pike won't come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 [quote name='ski MRG' 2/06/01 35 miles SE Jerry FTW Tippy the Met wow Ginx, time to get it going again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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