CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't see any phasing at all with this. It's purely southern stream. That difference here is that the GFS is south with the westerlies and associated nrn stream is further south. The euro weakens this and is further north by hr 78, and now you see the heights really rise to the northeast of the vortmax. On the GFS, heights remain flat and don't amplify until hr 78 on the 12z run, but then the damage is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My thoughts are wait for the 12z Euro. It's been very consistent thus far. If the Euro holds, throw out everything else -- perfectly serious. Some other thoughts include: There are a plethora of ways for this to be a non-event for New England, and only a couple ways for this to be a significant snow storm. This. Sam, you're a little off-base with the rest......plethora of ways for this to be a snowstorm, couple ways for this to be the 12th HECS of the season. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't see any phasing at all with this. It's purely southern stream. That difference here is that the GFS is south with the westerlies and associated nrn stream is further south. The euro weakens this and is further north by hr 78, and now you see the heights really rise to the northeast of the vortmax. On the GFS, heights remain flat and don't amplify until hr 78 on the 12z run, but then the damage is done. Well, I guess this is where my H5 deficiency comes in because the N stream looked to phase, to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol. at hr96, the southern stream kicker is comparable in intensity to the storm itself. Knocks down upstream ridging, opening up the wave, and makes our HECS one heck of a joke. You're trying to hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't see any phasing at all with this. It's purely southern stream. That difference here is that the GFS is south with the westerlies and associated nrn stream is further south. The euro weakens this and is further north by hr 78, and now you see the heights really rise to the northeast of the vortmax. On the GFS, heights remain flat and don't amplify until hr 78 on the 12z run, but then the damage is done. 00Z euro. My gut says euro may be closer to reality. 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z NOGAPs is 984mb passing over the BM after it was a far OTS open wave on the 6z run. I don't like the NOGAPs at all, but for those of you who like to use it for "red flags" there ya go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You're trying to hard. Yea, I mean.....if a "joke" is adding 6" of snow onto a 20" snowpack with cokd for the foreseeable future, then send my resume to Barnum and Bailey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, I guess this is where my H5 deficiency comes in because the N stream looked to phase, to me. I think I know what you mean, but go back to the 00z run at hr 66. See how the nrn stream vort starts to separate from the srn stream over the GL? Now loop H5 going forward, see how it remains separate? It really doesn't phase until it is well ne of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I dunno - I just don't see the RGEM, the ECM from 00z, the 12Z NAM, ...so many of the GFS's own ensemble members, all that backing being so brutally wrong in lieu of the deterministic GFS's obsession with not producing a storm. It's just that simple, and if one did not know any better (but knew of physics in general) they'd almost think this run was some kind of a deliberate construction to offer implausible anti-solutions or some shyst. Frustrating to watch these successive solutions. It's like trying to explain right from wrong to an encorrigible, abstinent teenager. The little douche chimes off like they get it, but then you're down at Juvy bailing them out again. Anthropomorphism aside, I would toss every GFS solution going back 3 days worth of cycles. They don't fit well with the teleconnectors, to which the bevy of other guidance types really do - one thing I have come to find over the years in this game is that one way or the other, the teleconnectors will win. This stands entirely up to intuitive reason when one succeeds at wrapping their head around a very simple precept in all this: Mass is always conserved, 100% of the time. The teleconnectors are really just a statistical package that points to 'how that should take place'. If there are heights high over greenland, the CPC method (which uses the geopotential height anomalies), to calculate where the mass-balancing minimums should be that compensate. This is in 360 degrees around the centroid of the NAO domain - and to pop off a DELICIOUSLY pompous sounding stream of 10C semi-automatic rifled terminological tautology - where Empirical Orthogonal Function compute the characterization of the field. They take a grid of calculated point anomalies, then look at the diagonal values, from which they derive a poly-nomial function, and then solve for the roots (usually quadratically) - the "sign" ( - or + ) is the mode of the NAO teleconnector. If it is negative, the statistically correlated spatial dimensions of the surround adjacent field should have a summation of positives the equally match the total magnitude of the -NAO, point to point. The key, then, is to know - or appropriately dial into the expectation that ... - this is all not a snap shot, but taking place in a fluid continuum. When they run the nightly computation, it IS a snap shot, but it is a photo at a big family gathering where you have all these children being unruly, hard to control, and inevitably making it very difficult to get that perfect shot. The upshot with the EOF technique, however, is that with SO much mass involved, the children are less capable of ensuring chaos is the only measure; the adults tend to dictate and smooth out unnecessary permutations. All the complexity and humor aside, at the end of the day, we have an interval of negative NAO underway. The teleconnector is for lowered compensating heights moving from the OV-MA... The more amplitude notion of the anti-GFS group (which appears to be every model for the most part...), is just better support. This is all compounded by the fact that the PNA is heavily clustered and stuck positive by both the CPC and CDC agencies. That asserts a meridional flow characterization over N/A, which should feed-back a nice positive signal into the fray with this. So why the damping on the GFS? I don't know. But it is frustrating. After a few months of supposed comparable performance to the ECM, the GFS seems to be handling things poorly, recently. If it some how wins this fight, so be it - score. But I don't think it will. I suspect we have a solid 10-20" storm with a few spots popping close to 24". This storm probably takes 12-15 hours to completely traverse the area, and its first diving deep into Gulf interfacing and then riding the near coastal plain of the SE is just about quintessentially perfect for maximizing PWAT transport. The intense mlv circulation at 500mb as it it nears the lower Del Marva on the NAM - if succeeds at hour 84 off this 12z run - is about to tap all that torque into the 996mb low near HAT at that time - if there were a 90 hour panel, you'd see a low that goes from 996 [probably] to 984mb in near record implosion pace. We'll see, but the balled up hyper-torgue appeal of the RGEM and even GGEM, as well as big hints toward that in the ECM, shows that the lesser finite grid spaced meso-beta and mesoscale models are suggesting extreme bombogenesis capability lurks here regardless of their individual absolute scalar depictions as to the depth of the low. If there were a candidate for thundersnow, this one would be heavily favored to win being voted into that office. Suspect excessive 6" -hour snow fall rates in a band or two during mass impact. This storm will in situ develop [most likely] a strong coastal plain isollobaric wind response with all that rapid pressure fall followed by rise as the low translates probably near the outer arm of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think I know what you mean, but go back to the 00z run at hr 66. See how the nrn stream vort starts to separate from the srn stream over the GL? Now loop H5 going forward, see how it remains separate? It really doesn't phase until it is well ne of sne. Technically it stems from the northern stream if you go back to hours 24 and 48, but I'm just trying to make it easier for you to visualize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z NOGAPs is 984mb passing over the BM after it was a far OTS open wave on the 6z run. I don't like the NOGAPs at all, but for those of you who like to use it for "red flags" there ya go. ss7?lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well i think we all know this..but GFS is right exactly where we want it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think I know what you mean, but go back to the 00z run at hr 66. See how the nrn stream vort starts to separate from the srn stream over the GL? Now loop H5 going forward, see how it remains separate? It really doesn't phase until it is well ne of sne. I guess.....the reason it's tough for me to discern those little nuances is because I can't loop anything on SV. I agree RE hedging toward the EURO and it's probably fortunate for everyone east of Logan11 that that N stream vort doesn't phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't see any phasing at all with this. It's purely southern stream. That difference here is that the GFS is south with the westerlies and associated nrn stream is further south. The euro weakens this and is further north by hr 78, and now you see the heights really rise to the northeast of the vortmax. On the GFS, heights remain flat and don't amplify until hr 78 on the 12z run, but then the damage is done. yes the northern stream is not helping at all with this storm 1. its keeping it flat and fast, unphased 2. its smushing the westerns side via the westerlies 3. no cold air support 4. its kicking it along, with help from a southern kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If Euro holds serve we can start getting some amounts down on paper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I guess.....the reason it's tough for me to discern those little nuances is because I can't loop anything on SV. I agree RE hedging toward the EURO and it's probably fortunate for everyone east of Logan11 that that N stream vort doesn't phase. Oh ok. You are technically right in that it tries to phase and dig more as compared to the GFS, over the Plains. The GFS has fast flow and doesn't allow for amplification until it is too late, but the euro lifts and weakens the westerlies, and we have big amplification over the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 2/06/01 35 miles SE Jerry FTW Tippy the Met wow I suspect we have a solid 10-20" storm with a few spots popping close to 24". This storm probably takes 12-15 hours to completely traverse the area, and its first diving deep into Gulf interfacing and then riding the near coastal plain of the SE is just about quintessentially perfect for maximizing PWAT transport. The intense mlv circulation at 500mb as it it nears the lower Del Marva on the NAM - if succeeds at hour 84 off this 12z run - is about tap all that torque into the 996mb low near HAT at that time - if there were a 90 hour panel, you'd see a low that goes from 996 [probably] to 984mb in near record implosion pace. We'll see, but the balled up hyper-torgue appeal of the RGEM and even GGEM, as well as big hints toward that in the ECM, shows that the lesser finite grid spaced meso-beta and mesoscale models are suggesting extreme bombogenesis capability lurks here regardless of their individual absolute scalar depictions as to the depth of the low. If there were a candidate for thundersnow, this one would be heavily favored to win being voted into that office. Suspect excessive 6" -hour snow fall rates in a band or two during mass impact. This storm will in situ develop [most likely] a strong coastal plain isollobaric wind response with all that rapid pressure fall followed by rise as the low translates probably near the outer arm of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This has to be at least the 100th storm since the boards have been in existence where the GFS has done this..this is why it just adds more confusion than help to the end result. Just think..if we didn't have this POS model everyone would be 100% sure this thing was coming gangbusters. Instead the GFS huggers just look at it and worry that it's right. How many times do we go thru this each winter until folks realize it's pure crap. Ignore it..don't use it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 it is kinda comical watching all these runs.....ive been paying close attention for the past 3 days.....back and forth back and forth stronger southern energy, weaker southern energy, eneergy cuts off, energy doesnt cutoff more of a kicker, less of a kicker stronger heights along the east coast, lower heights nogaps east, euro west gfs east, nogaps west nam warm, srefs cold etc etc honestly, i know it sounds silly to say this, but we all know where this is going to end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 honestly, i know it sounds silly to say this, but we all know where this is going to end up. over CHH (?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This has to be at least the 100th storm since the boards have been in existence where the GFS has done this..this is why it just adds more confusion than help to the end result. Just think..if we didn't have this POS model everyone would be 100% sure this thing was coming gangbusters. Instead the GFS huggers just look at it and worry that it's right. How many times do we go thru this each winter until folks realize it's pure crap. Ignore it..don't use it I'm not worried about the GFS....what I am somewhat concerned with is the EURO's apparently stealthy fetish for sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 TT, great post. Thanks for the time and effort. Very illustrative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I suspect we have a solid 10-20" storm with a few spots popping close to 24"... If there were a candidate for thundersnow, this one would be heavily favored to win being voted into that office. Suspect excessive 6" -hour snow fall rates in a band or two during mass impact. This storm will in situ develop [most likely] a strong coastal plain isollobaric wind response with all that rapid pressure fall followed by rise as the low translates probably near the outer arm of Cape Cod. Whoa. I want to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This. Sam, you're a little off-base with the rest......plethora of ways for this to be a snowstorm, couple ways for this to be the 12th HECS of the season. lol fair enough. I just don't like the 42 thousand, give or take a few, disturbances in the flow. Always makes a big storm like threading a needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 wow, that 12Z GGEM is west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This has to be at least the 100th storm since the boards have been in existence where the GFS has done this..this is why it just adds more confusion than help to the end result. Just think..if we didn't have this POS model everyone would be 100% sure this thing was coming gangbusters. Instead the GFS huggers just look at it and worry that it's right. How many times do we go thru this each winter until folks realize it's pure crap. Ignore it..don't use it I honestly don't get it either. We're concerned because of the GFS and SREFs? REALLY? The SREF's are all over the place all the time at this range. The GFS is always SE. net result has been a track near ACK or Cape Cod every single time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 wow, that 12Z GGEM is west again I guess Will-the-thrill's 06z concerns have abated. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Anyone got the 12z crazy Uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm not worried about the GFS....what I am somewhat concerned with is the EURO's apparently stealthy fetish for sleet. Bing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z Ukie is more amplified than the GFS at 72hr. A bowling ball VM moving over N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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