weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Could be marginally OTS. Good sign if you ask me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 H5 catches it s of sne on the EURO, but it isn't on the GFS.....significant system, but nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ideally that 1024 mb HP over central Canada can get over to us in time to lock in the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Gonna be a snowy run. Uncle is late for me...anyone have it Better run than the 06z. Closer to the 00z run just a hair SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is good, comrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Could be marginally OTS. Good sign if you ask me... Yea, maybe a scaper, but detes are unimportant. This is a bias of the EC, but we are about 4 days out now, so unless the EURO caves at 12z....I'll defer to it. BIG 12z EURO run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 northern stream working its magic there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Cape gets a good snowstorm. They definitely deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Thursday event for all the Wednesday fetishists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Phil gets a congrats here. I do like the low level cold signature here. 1 big detail that appears to work for cstl areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS is not involving the n stream nearly to the extent of the EURO. Maybe just timing differences....looks pretty good to me at hr 72. Both. The whole evoloution of the trough is just slower ont he GFS because it isn't as amplified.....H5 catches it s of sne on the EURO and s of NS on the GFS. Like I said, all I need to see is the EURO hold serve at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Phil gets a congrats here. I do like the low level cold signature here. 1 big detail that appears to work for cstl areas. Much better system on the 12z GFS for us down here in SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Phil gets a congrats here. I do like the low level cold signature here. 1 big detail that appears to work for cstl areas. 1000-500mb gradient looks pretty poor to me, in terms of a lack of upper-level cold air do u see this as a red flag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 BIG 12z EURO run. Ditto ensembles and any clusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Phil gets a congrats here. I do like the low level cold signature here. 1 big detail that appears to work for cstl areas. yeah...so this should end up in the canal. lol. big timing differences though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol. at hr96, the southern stream kicker is comparable in intensity to the storm itself. Knocks down upstream ridging, opening up the wave, and makes our HECS one heck of a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well considering it was halfway to Bermuda as I used to say ...at 6Z. I wasn't expecting much from the 12Z GFS at this point. scrape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Much better system on the 12z GFS for us down here in SE areas. As Phil said sure sign it's heading to the canal in the end! Bounce seems to be a major struggle models are having in trying to figure out how it comes together. We have some strong runs with ideal tracks that are remarkably warm....which seems odd. In any case, Euro, GGEM and Ukie should be interesting. I think extreme/inland is going away/may go away after this run. Track window has been the BM before including the ensembles only to end up way NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol. at hr96, the southern stream kicker is comparable in intensity to the storm itself. Knocks down upstream ridging, opening up the wave, and makes our HECS one heck of a joke. Ok and is that realistic? what's your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 1000-500mb gradient looks pretty poor to me, in terms of a lack of upper-level cold air do u see this as a red flag? Well it's always good to have a nice thermal gradient. The low prior to it's arrival, over the GL warms the mid levels. Both models seemed to throw back quite a bit of QPF on the nw side of the low. The problem was that much of it was not nw of the 0C 850 line, but I think dynamics would compensate a bit. Loop the 850 temps on the GFS and look how they crash to the east..off the NJ coast. The low will be over the warm gulf waters, so it should have copious amounts of moisture. The hope is that it comes nw enough to dump this moisture over sne. In theory, it's good to have an arctic source of air nearby with a nice high, but it doesn't have to work like that. I think the red flag with this is the nrn stream and how it interacts. The problem I also see is that it almost is a threading the needle type thing. In other words, if we lose confluence, this will want to turn the corner and push right into sne. On the other hand, the nrn stream could flex its muscle and kick it further ots. Fortunately, the ensembles have been consistent with threading the needle for days, but we must remember that we are 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol. at hr96, the southern stream kicker is comparable in intensity to the storm itself. Knocks down upstream ridging, opening up the wave, and makes our HECS one heck of a joke. Also has a really fast flow up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think the interior is right where they want to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ditto ensembles and any clusters. Yea, ens have been pegged on the BM for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well it's always good to have a nice thermal gradient. The low prior to it's arrival, over the GL warms the mid levels. Both models seemed to throw back quite a bit of QPF on the nw side of the low. The problem was that much of it was not nw of the 0C 850 line, but I think dynamics would compensate a bit. Loop the 850 temps on the GFS and look how they crash to the east..off the NJ coast. The low will be over the warm gulf waters, so it should have copious amounts of moisture. The hope is that it comes nw enough to dump this moisture over sne. In theory, it's good to have an arctic source of air nearby with a nice high, but it doesn't have to work like that. I think the red flag with this is the nrn stream and how it interacts. The problem I also see is that it almost is a threading the needle type thing. In other words, if we lose confluence, this will want to turn the corner and push right into sne. On the other hand, the nrn stream could flex its muscle and kick it further ots. Fortunately, the ensembles have been consistent with threading the needle for days, but we must remember that we are 4 days out. cool, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Also has a really fast flow up north Yea, that is what I noticed early on....the reason the "evoloution of the trough" is slower is because the N stream energy phases in later due to it running out more ahead of the s stream. N stream completes phase s of sne on the EURO, which is what the interior wants, but it completes the phase s of NS on the GFS....which is what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yea, ens have been pegged on the BM for days. I've gone back and forth on their value with this event. I always like to lean on them... But if the amped up solution (I.e. The euro) is in the works...I worry they will be too far se and too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 CC and south coast don't want the n stream to phase in until it passes us...ala GFS.....I want it to do so while it's underneath us, ala EURO. Watch the N stream in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I've gone back and forth on their value with this event. I always like to lean on them... But if the amped up solution (I.e. The euro) is in the works...I worry they will be too far se and too cold. I agree....I think there value here is more with regard to leaning against the faster N stream idea, not so much that the lc will actually track there....I'd say betwn there and your BY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Ok and is that realistic? what's your thoughts? My thoughts are wait for the 12z Euro. It's been very consistent thus far. If the Euro holds, throw out everything else -- perfectly serious. Some other thoughts include: There are a plethora of ways for this to be a non-event for New England, and only a couple ways for this to be a significant snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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