ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I thought the EURO was about as good for the entirety of the region, outside of CC as it gets. That was the EURO though, the 06 gfs has thrown a damper on this whole event, storm cancel.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah, we discussed that northern energy acting as a kicker. The 12z NAM does not look to different in track than the 00z GFS, just a bit slower. They both come off HAT with 500 low. It's very similar to the 0z GFS just a smidge stronger and slower. It would probably end up being a little more robust but it's tough to tell as it may also slip further ENE at 90. Either way, instead of being WAY on the amped side of the solutions it seems to be right with the others. Maybe that will change in subsequent runs today as we see it emerge off the coast in later panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That was the EURO though, the 06 gfs has thrown a damper on this whole event, storm cancel.lol Don't know, don't care; where were the ens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 deep cold is nothing in the face of strong WAA ive had -20C mornings followed by rain the same day. Hell--some people have already come up nearly 20* in the span of 5 or 6 hours today. Why owuld it be so surprising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's very similar to the 0z GFS just a smidge stronger and slower. It would probably end up being a little more robust but it's tough to tell as it may also slip further ENE at 90. Either way, instead of being WAY on the amped side of the solutions it seems to be right with the others. Maybe that will change in subsequent runs today as we see it emerge off the coast in later panels. Save all the runs for the sake of history!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think it would get a lot of people with significant snow I like the 12z NAM at this time range. Right where we want it, after it's cutter-absurdity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That was the EURO though, the 06 gfs has thrown a damper on this whole event, storm cancel.lol ehhh ...... Its a lot of snow N and W of 495 on the euro but there is def some sleet that gets in there...S of the pike near Kevin its a paint peeler for quite a bit of the storm. I have very little confidence in ptype for this storm. I do think interior will be frozen, but whether that is more sleet/ZR or mostly snow....I have no idea. Closer to the coast its even more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 1/13-15/1999 (which produced over a foot of ocean effect snow in parts of eastern MA with temps around 10F, and then had precip change to sleet, ZR and finally rain) is another good example of this phenomenon. Some people are upset about so much deep cold and ptype issues following 2 days later. While the upset is understandable, if you remember these deep cold plunges, they are often followed by systems like this. 2/4/61 is the classic example. And hopefully that is what helps this event. Antecedent cold was so intense that it only changed in Atlantic City and a bit further up the NJ shore. But it was close to changing in many places. Another example is the great Chicago blizzard of 1/2/99. Obviously we get a 50F rainstorm. 2 days earlier, temps struggled past 10F for highs in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Look I think most of us think the Euro is the way to go in this kind of setup. Buuuuut, with a trend in all of the 6z data, the fear is that those runs latched onto something in the data that was not available to the Euro when it ran. That's my worry. We'll know it all in about 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I see a lot of people arguing about when this storm will start for most of us and it's pretty rediculous.. We have to keep in mind this is a New England thread.. So when someone like me in extreme southwest New England says its a Wednesday storm I am right.. And when someone from boston East Central New England says Thursday they are right... I guess the best way to put this is the affects from this possible storm will start to be felt in New England during the day on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Save all the runs for the sake of history!! Yeah yeah yeah, Here's the 6z GFS v the 12z NAM...GFS was digging a little deeper, position e/w not all that different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Don't know, don't care; where were the ens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Look I think most of us think the Euro is the way to go in this kind of setup. Buuuuut, with a trend in all of the 6z data, the fear is that those runs latched onto something in the data that was not available to the Euro when it ran. That's my worry. We'll know it all in about 2 hours. well the NAM trended back towards the 00z the RGEM at 48 looks even deeper than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hell--some people have already come up nearly 20* in the span of 5 or 6 hours today. Why owuld it be so surprising? Up to 17F from a low of -6 this morning, a lot warmer then i expected, and with no wind, its not too bad out. Time for the 12z Goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can't imagine that the EURO had much in the way of sleet up here, but that is still disconcerning......this has V-Day like potential, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Nice, Upton. Scary but good thoughts. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS RUN AND IS NOW EVEN SLOWER THAN THE EC. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM...OVER OR JUST INSIDE THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK...BUT THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY. TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WARM AIR WILL BE FLOWING IN ALOFT...AND ALSO AT THE SURFACE. TOUGH CALL AS TO HOW FAR INLAND THE LOWER LEVELS WARM. POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE COAST...AND SNOW FARTHER INLAND. OR RAIN MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER WEST...POSSIBLY TO NYC AND WESTERN CONNECTICUT...WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WEST OF THERE. DETAILS STILL FUZZY AND NOW THE 06Z GFS JUST CAME IN FARTHER OFFSHORE AND WOULD COMPLETELY MISS US. STORM MOVES OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING AND PRECIPITATION LIKELY GOING BACK TO SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Who wants to post a vday accum map for nne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 well the NAM trended back towards the 00z the RGEM at 48 looks even deeper than the NAM GFS coming in now will tell us if we had a 6z faht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This run won't be the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This thing just isn't exciting me. I can accept that we'll mix in storms from time to time in a good winter, but the "precip in the warm sector" business is disconcerting. We got an analog for this thing? Can a brotha get an analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS is not involving the n stream nearly to the extent of the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS is not involving the n stream nearly to the extent of the EURO. Maybe just timing differences....looks pretty good to me at hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Maybe just timing differences....looks pretty good to me at hr 72. Looks like some timing differences like you said. If you look at the 0z 6z 12z...the 12z is right in the middle of the three runs...maybe a smidge faster too. through about 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS is not involving the n stream nearly to the extent of the EURO. Not compared to the 06z run, but it is to the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's gonna be less amped than the EURO, which what I thought early on, but it should at lreast get ene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Watching the gfs now is ok but we can not trust the model until Monday/Tuesday we all know every storm this year on the gfs comes way west within 24-36 hours! I would go with the euro been most consistant. expect a high impact storm sometime between Wednesday-Thursday for all of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You'll do well Ray. You are in a great snow spot. So maybe you get some sleet, but regardless it's money in the bank that you get a nice increase in snow pack. Once again here it a question of snow or fringe. I kinda think it trends nw enough for at least another moderate hit here. I can't imagine that the EURO had much in the way of sleet up here, but that is still disconcerning......this has V-Day like potential, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Good luck with this storm guys! Maps look impressive with ample potential. See you in May! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Gonna be a snowy run. Uncle is late for me...anyone have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 scrape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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