ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I can't remember a storm that tracked just inside 40/70 and brought sleet so far nw. My guess is that there would be a sneaky warm layer above 850, but the euro verbatim probably would not bring it that far nw as depicted. It does have a very warm source region, so that is something to consider. That would be a flesh remover for inland RI and SE CT. That's as gruesome a description of weather as I've heard. The 00z EURO looked good for an all snow blitz here onthe East Slope to me. am I right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 No, everything has slowed. The Euro is still wed into Thursday..We typically see models slow during this timeframe..then speed back up..See BOX disco wed into wed nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think we're seeing the usual NAM slow bias in effect here. It's still a wednesday storm Euro is Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro is Thursday. I don't agree with that..it starts Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I liked it better when it was a Wed aft-thu morning storm, much more likely to be awake for most/all of it. 10pm start time really couldn't be worst for watching the storm. But beggers can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't agree with that..it starts Wed semantics. Height of the storm looks like it's Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM has a bias for deeper --> slower solutions I believe. We'll see it speed up a bit from here on out IMO. Weird to think about that barely getting into the range of the NAM. And we're still a solid 48 hours outside the range of potential WSW. Long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Boy the SREFs get the old boot leg from the trough digging in from the GL. yeah the nam doesn't look that far from the same sort of idea but it gets it in here. i don't know what to make of it or whether it even matters. maybe it goes back to what will brought up the other day with respect to how strong the northern stream has trended? but given all the op and ens support in general, have to assume this thing is still coming in some way shape or form. did you see what the 06z goofus did with the trough and vm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And a light snowy day Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The good news is that it appears to allow some fresh cold to be tapped in the form of the new HP that will be parked in a favorable spot to drain ageo winds. Max mentions La Nina winters....and for the Cape it has been disappointing. But most of us in the Boston area down through CT are so far above normal snow wise it's amazing. That doesn't happen all that often in La Nina years. If BOS gets only normal from here on out, we finish with 75. it's all relative. i'm actually above normal to date. it's just the last couple of events have been rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That's as gruesome a description of weather as I've heard. The 00z EURO looked good for an all snow blitz here onthe East Slope to me. am I right? Your fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM has a bias for deeper --> slower solutions I believe. We'll see it speed up a bit from here on out IMO. Weird to think about that barely getting into the range of the NAM. And we're still a solid 48 hours outside the range of potential WSW. Long ways to go. Yeah if you take the ens mean guidance..they all have this as Wed threat..into Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This sure looks like a pattern a snow lover would relish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Your fine. If we discard the 06 gfs op! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If we discard the 06 gfs op! I've never seen someone who gets so much snow worry about such a sh*tty model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If we discard the 06 gfs op! Garbage in. garbage out. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'd like to see a trend toward a little less compactness over the south. We'd rather have this as a longer wavelength disturbance over the southeast, and see it tighten along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If we discard the 06 gfs op! Yeah Mike, run with the 06 gfs op. That's the likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I've never seen someone who gets so much snow worry about such a sh*tty model... It's really perplexing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I've never seen someone who gets so much snow worry about such a sh*tty model... mike's not worried...i think he likes worrying some snow lovers thou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yeah the nam doesn't look that far from the same sort of idea but it gets it in here. i don't know what to make of it or whether it even matters. maybe it goes back to what will brought up the other day with respect to how strong the northern stream has trended? but given all the op and ens support in general, have to assume this thing is still coming in some way shape or form. did you see what the 06z goofus did with the trough and vm? Yeah the northern stream is quite important with the evolution of this. I remember noting a few days ago that models showed signs of fast flow with disturbances possibly helping to not curl this into sne. It could be that the nrn stream ultimately gives this the boot, but like you said...given ensemble support...something seems to be on the horizon. The GFS was horrible with the VM..lol. It's never good to have a tail of vorticity extending from the nrn stream s/w trough to the srn stream trough. Usually means more westerly and progressive flow. However that seems like a "goofus" kind of run. Maybe it happens like that, but not as dramatic? Lots to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah if you take the ens mean guidance..they all have this as Wed threat..into Thurs Loving these overnight events extending into the next day for slow workdays. Plus Thursday is almost always the busiest day. Keep em coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah the northern stream is quite important with the evolution of this. I remember noting a few days ago that models showed signs of fast flow with disturbances possibly helping to not curl this into sne. It could be that the nrn stream ultimately gives this the boot, but like you said...given ensemble support...something seems to be on the horizon. The GFS was horrible with the VM..lol. It's never good to have a tail of vorticity extending from the nrn stream s/w trough to the srn stream trough. Usually means more westerly and progressive flow. However that seems like a "goofus" kind of run. Maybe it happens like that, but not as dramatic? Lots to consider. Yeah, we discussed that northern energy acting as a kicker. The 12z NAM does not look to different in track than the 00z GFS, just a bit slower. They both come off HAT with 500 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM has a bias for deeper --> slower solutions I believe. We'll see it speed up a bit from here on out IMO. Weird to think about that barely getting into the range of the NAM. And we're still a solid 48 hours outside the range of potential WSW. Long ways to go. That's why I don't think it can be used as any indication one way or the other. It's slow bias may be preventing it from kicking this east, the rest of the suite will be interesting. To me the NAM isn't great. It's trying to slide north, but it's dominate motion is going to be more NE than NNE and it would primarily effect the S 1/3-1/2, E 1/3-1/2 of New England, IMO it's not a New England wide event (on the NAM). This is particularly interesting - and I'm surprised nobody is mentioning this because every single other event that has hit us or just missed us in the last month - the NAM was WAY NW at 84 hours of all other models. At best the NAM would be a solution somwhere near the Euro mean, IMO. Not hundreds of miles NW than the others which may be a little telling as to which way this goes this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Some people are upset about so much deep cold and ptype issues following 2 days later. While the upset is understandable, if you remember these deep cold plunges, they are often followed by systems like this. 2/4/61 is the classic example. And hopefully that is what helps this event. Antecedent cold was so intense that it only changed in Atlantic City and a bit further up the NJ shore. But it was close to changing in many places. Another example is the great Chicago blizzard of 1/2/99. Obviously we get a 50F rainstorm. 2 days earlier, temps struggled past 10F for highs in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I thought the EURO was about as good for the entirety of the region, outside of CC as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I've never seen someone who gets so much snow worry about such a sh*tty model... I'm not worried, Jerry. I was making a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah the northern stream is quite important with the evolution of this. I remember noting a few days ago that models showed signs of fast flow with disturbances possibly helping to not curl this into sne. It could be that the nrn stream ultimately gives this the boot, but like you said...given ensemble support...something seems to be on the horizon. The GFS was horrible with the VM..lol. It's never good to have a tail of vorticity extending from the nrn stream s/w trough to the srn stream trough. Usually means more westerly and progressive flow. However that seems like a "goofus" kind of run. Maybe it happens like that, but not as dramatic? Lots to consider. I can't believe I am saying it, but this winter is about to drag climo into a dark alley by it's hair, rob it and beat it senseless......leaving it unconscious until sometime in April. The answer is in the ensembles and it looks to me like yet another major event is in the offing....ots, no; p-type issues....possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Some people are upset about so much deep cold and ptype issues following 2 days later. While the upset is understandable, if you remember these deep cold plunges, they are often followed by systems like this. 2/4/61 is the classic example. And hopefully that is what helps this event. Antecedent cold was so intense that it only changed in Atlantic City and a bit further up the NJ shore. But it was close to changing in many places. Another example is the great Chicago blizzard of 1/2/99. Obviously we get a 50F rainstorm. 2 days earlier, temps struggled past 10F for highs in Boston. deep cold is nothing in the face of strong WAA ive had -20C mornings followed by rain the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 2008 ice storm was another one that followed a very cold period in early December. Similar set up in fact, with a Miller A compact closed upper low moving northeast out of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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