MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The ensembles really try to bomb the low near the BM based on how it looks on MSLP. Hopefully that will lessen the flip to sleet for some. I think Will is right, in that these srn systems are juicified and will probably try to hug the area near HSE and further north, until starting to make a right hand turn. That will help flood the mid levels with marginal air...that's kind of been my worry all along. The good news is that A) some models have ticked cooler in the mid levels like the euro and the surface temps are pretty cold..even for me. Hopefully this stays put, but I think it inches nw a little more. Hopefully not. EDIT: that's supposed to be a "b" not a sun tan face. I read all three of these posts and agree with each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The ensembles really try to bomb the low near the BM based on how it looks on MSLP. Hopefully that will lessen the flip to sleet for some. I think Will is right, in that these srn systems are juicified and will probably try to hug the area near HSE and further north, until starting to make a right hand turn. That will help flood the mid levels with marginal air...that's kind of been my worry all along. The good news is that a) some models have ticked cooler in the mid levels like the euro and the surface temps are pretty cold..even for me. Hopefully this stays put, but I think it inches nw a little more. Hopefully not. Hey do you think the ensembles try to bomb the low near the BM? J/k....that is one thing that could offset the slightly further tick NW in track if it does that...the bombing nature of the low will help tug the colder air form the N and NE if its bombing in that position vs if its going into LI or something. There will be a line somewhere...where east of that line will get a lot of ML warmth wrapped in, and W of it will actually have some cooling going on...frontogenesis at its most classic. Keeping it somewhere near the BM to perhaps as far NW as ACK should do the trick...but preferably SE of ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The ensembles really try to bomb the low near the BM based on how it looks on MSLP. Hopefully that will lessen the flip to sleet for some. I think Will is right, in that these srn systems are juicified and will probably try to hug the area near HSE and further north, until starting to make a right hand turn. That will help flood the mid levels with marginal air...that's kind of been my worry all along. The good news is that A) some models have ticked cooler in the mid levels like the euro and the surface temps are pretty cold..even for me. Hopefully this stays put, but I think it inches nw a little more. Hopefully not. EDIT: that's supposed to be a "b" not a sun tan face. How do you think you and I do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I like how the CV keeps getting a mention as being buried from the Thursday event.. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hey do you think the ensembles try to bomb the low near the BM? J/k....that is one thing that could offset the slightly further tick in track if it does that...the bombing nature of the low will help tug the colder air form the N and NE if its bombing in that position vs if its going into LI or something. There will be a line somewhere...where east of that line will get a lot of ML warmth wrapped in, and W of it will actually have some cooling going on...frontogenesis at its most classic. Keeping it somewhere near the BM to perhaps as far NW as ACK should do the trick...but preferably SE of ACK. I just like how the low tucks in with the isobars so compact on the west side, just something I noticed on the 06z gfs ensembles, but that could also be a lack of spread too. I'm hoping for something se of ACK too..preferable near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I just like how the low tucks in with the isobars so compact on the west side, just something I noticed on the 06z gfs ensembles, but that could also be a lack of spread too. I'm hoping for something se of ACK too..preferable near the BM. Keeping an eye on how far north this hugs the coast will be crucial...that is what brings all the mid-level warmth into the M.A. region and then it keeps NE cold by hooking ENE and bombing out at the same time as it approaches the BM.If it hugs the coast all the way up to like somwhere N of ACY, then we'd probably be joining in the mid-level warmth party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What are folks thinking wrt timing of the event (duration)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How do you think you and I do? Well, I was worried about surface temps, but it seems like the mid levels may try to taint. I think as it is now, you and I may only briefly have some IP, but I still think there is room for a nudge nw. I do like how the mid level warming seems to halt to our south. If the 850 low can go over ACK, I think we can really limit the mid level warming. If you loop the 850 plots on the GFS, you can see how the warming stops right along the south coast. Once flow turns east in conjunction with good vv's, this limits the warming. The euro weenie maps that have critical thicknesses on them should be interesting. I'll be at work around 8 or so, I'll fire 'em up then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The ensembles really try to bomb the low near the BM based on how it looks on MSLP. Hopefully that will lessen the flip to sleet for some. I think Will is right, in that these srn systems are juicified and will probably try to hug the area near HSE and further north, until starting to make a right hand turn. That will help flood the mid levels with marginal air...that's kind of been my worry all along. The good news is that A) some models have ticked cooler in the mid levels like the euro and the surface temps are pretty cold..even for me. Hopefully this stays put, but I think it inches nw a little more. Hopefully not. EDIT: that's supposed to be a "b" not a sun tan face. Pete repete posts but just awesome. Great news thank you, gonna rock everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 One more tick colder and we're all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well, I was worried about surface temps, but it seems like the mid levels may try to taint. I think as it is now, you and I may only briefly have some IP, but I still think there is room for a nudge nw. I do like how the mid level warming seems to halt to our south. If the 850 low can go over ACK, I think we can really limit the mid level warming. If you loop the 850 plots on the GFS, you can see how the warming stops right along the south coast. Once flow turns east in conjunction with good vv's, this limits the warming. The euro weenie maps that have critical thicknesses on them should be interesting. I'll be at work around 8 or so, I'll fire 'em up then. Your description of the mid levels sounds like our traditional stem winders, a little sleet mixes for a while then bombs away. Where are the cities gonna put the snow, heck where is KeV gonna put the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well, I was worried about surface temps, but it seems like the mid levels may try to taint. I think as it is now, you and I may only briefly have some IP, but I still think there is room for a nudge nw. I do like how the mid level warming seems to halt to our south. If the 850 low can go over ACK, I think we can really limit the mid level warming. If you loop the 850 plots on the GFS, you can see how the warming stops right along the south coast. Once flow turns east in conjunction with good vv's, this limits the warming. The euro weenie maps that have critical thicknesses on them should be interesting. I'll be at work around 8 or so, I'll fire 'em up then. Thanks Scott. Bottom line is it looks like a potential good sized net gain. Can't ask for more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If you use the CRAS/NOGAPS theory its good news for coastal people...CRAS at 78 hours is only over DC and the 06Z NOGAPS is east of the benchmark...if this was going to coast hug the CRAS would probably be in Pittsburgh...the 12/26 event it was over C PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The Euro is one hell of a weenie solution for my BY here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Moving right along New discussion thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The Euro is one hell of a weenie solution for my BY here Will said it brings you alot of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I really hope the GFS and NAM continues to show precip a little farther north, and come into my area. On the GFS, I am barely in the heavy snow. But again, the Euro is king, so I am confident on this northward shift in precip and possibly low track like all of the rest of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like the 06z NAM and GFS widened the half wavelength of the s/w down south a little. Which would be a good trend. Gives it more potential for deepening at our latitude. The nature of the s/w ... this really does look like a Miller A version of Dec 2005. The key will be the timing of the deepening of the mid level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would be more comfortable if the Euro didn't give in a little last night. We'll see what happens at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would be more comfortable if the Euro didn't give in a little last night. We'll see what happens at 12z. We are going to need some more NW trends on this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We are going to need some more NW trends on this one.... I hate this waiting game..9:30 am, and then 11, then 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well it's time..I think we will see some amounts near and probably over 20 inches in SNE Remember My text from last Wed.? La la la Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'd expect the NAM to steadily move in the direction of the Euro at this point. This hasn't been a storm where the NAM led the way on where these solutions were going. In the Jan 12th storm it latched onto the idea of a small compact bomb that would track closer than globals were saying and didn't let go of it and others trended toward it. This time, its been all over the map with monster swings. This is where you probably just hold close to the ensemble mean for now...as its been very close to the steady Euro. This is what I was trying to explain to Messenger, yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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