ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 MPM says yesterdays 6z GFS says no.so probably not Damn, I knew the QPF wouldn't get here. Congrats Martha's Vineyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 06z GFS ensemble mean has a 986mb low directly smack over the benchmark at 72h (06z Thursday) which is a tad NW of the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yes. My gut tells me it will try and be a little NW of current ensemble mean of most guidance right now. I might sleet for a time too, not sure. But its probably going to be a very juicy system with a ton of convection coming out of the gulf, so it might try and hug the coast a bit longer before turning right. Hopefully despite that, it stays cold enough for all snow. The guidance has been keeping it a bit colder in the mid-levels for longer. Damn..I was hoping you weren't going to answer that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So is the hypothesis as of this time that there could be heavy snow and sleet in hartford/springfield/providence and little or no snow in nw mass?? I am trying to follow you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 OT but Euro brings the deep Arctic back a week from today....another subzero night to the coast. I'm currently at -4.2, BOS is -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So is the hypothesis as of this time that there could be heavy snow and sleet in hartford/springfield/providence and little or no snow in nw mass?? I am trying to follow you guys. No. Western MA is probably in for a burying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 From ALB's discussion. MPM take note. MODELS STARTING TO CONVERGE (AT LEAST GFS/EURO - CANADIAN STILL AN OUTLIER ALTHOUGH TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS/EURO) ON BIG PICTURE FOR THE MIDWEEK STORM...IN WHICH PARTS OF THE ALY FORECAST AREA MAY GET A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE ARE NOT READY TO HOIST ANY KIND OF WATCH...AND WILL KEEP THE SNOWSTORM IN THE HWO...SINCE THE IMPACT PERIOD WILL NOT LIKELY BE UNTIL LATE WED THRU THU MORNING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z EURO INDICATE THE 500MB WAVE WILL BE OVER ALABAMA AT 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY 7 PM WEDNESDAY BOTH MODELS HAVE THE 500MB WAVE CLOSED OFF OVER OR JUST WEST OF CAPE HATTERAS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THE WAVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CAPE COD WITH 500MB LOW JUST WEST OF 40N 70W AT 7 AM THURSDAY AND GFS HAS 500MB LOW ENE OF CAPE COD. THIS DIFFERENCE IN SPEED IS REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE LOW AS GFS MOVES SYSTEM NE FASTER. WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING STRONG DEEPENING OF AROUND 20MB IN 24 HOURS...PREFER SLOWER EURO MOVEMENT. SLOWER MOVEMENT MEANS MORE QPF FOR SOUTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN CURRENT RAINFALL/SNOWFALL DATABASE. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LARGE GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THURSDAY...THE STORM STEADILY MOVES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THU AFTERNOON IN FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY...AND THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY BE SOME SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS REGION. TIMING/INTENSITY VARIES BETWEEN GFS/EURO SO HAVE SEEMING NEVER ENDING CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS AREA. INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CROSS AREA SUN/MON...REINFORCING DEEP FREEZE. OVERALL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH PCPN ABOVE NORMAL...DEPENDING ON THE MID WEEK STORM.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Models have trended south and a bit snowier for tomorrow's light snow..Looks like a 1-2 inch snowfall..radar in the midwest is fairly impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 No. Western MA is probably in for a burying. I would think that we could see at least minor accumulations.lol With a circulation as large and juicy I would think the East Slope could wring out some decent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Models have trended south and a bit snowier for tomorrow's light snow..Looks like a 1-2 inch snowfall..radar in the midwest is fairly impressive Staccato of Storms,AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 1st subzero reading at Logan since 1/22/05 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would think that we could see at least minor accumulations.lol With a circulation as large and juicy I would think the East Slope could wring out some decent snows. This is the type of system where you get 20+. Then again most are.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is the type of system where you get 20+. Then again most are.... LOL. I'm cautiously Optimistic.lol If things don't stray much by this time tomorrow I'll go into prep mode, Nice Winter Jerry, -20 nights, then snow, then more bitter cold, then snow...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 No. Western MA is probably in for a burying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well it's time..I think we will see some amounts near and probably over 20 inches in SNE Just throw that number out there like it's candy at a parade... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So then right now for the lower ct valley is it looking like a few to several inches of snow and a lot of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Interesting that BOX's forecast is based on a blend that includes the 12z EC and not the 00z EC. I'm not sure why they did it that way--thoughts? Contrary to popular belief, I have no question that a snow storm is in store here. That said, ALY's exuberance from yesterday afternoon's AFD has been replaced with a more somber approach. In other words, they are no longer mentioning yardsticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Interesting that BOX's forecast is based on a blend that includes the 12z EC and not the 00z EC. I'm not sure why they did it that way--thoughts? Contrary to popular belief, I have no question that a snow storm is in store here. That said, ALY's exuberance from yesterday afternoon's AFD has been replaced with a more somber approach. In other words, they are no longer mentioning yardsticks. When you are digging out from 25-30 inches on Thursday we can revisit this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So then right now for the lower ct valley is it looking like a few to several inches of snow and a lot of sleet? I think HFD area is looking for more more snow than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ok...out now for a quick dog walk in the 1st subzero morning of her life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is the type of system where you get 20+. Then again most are.... Its amazing that nobody in SNE saw a 20" snowstorm for about 4 years before we saw SE CT get it in Dec last year, and then Berkshires got one Feb of last winter....now this winter with the Jan storm. They seem to come in bunches sometimes. Hopefully this one can add to the list but there are still many obstacles to overcome with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Interesting that BOX's forecast is based on a blend that includes the 12z EC and not the 00z EC. I'm not sure why they did it that way--thoughts? Contrary to popular belief, I have no question that a snow storm is in store here. That said, ALY's exuberance from yesterday afternoon's AFD has been replaced with a more somber approach. In other words, they are no longer mentioning yardsticks. The interior will probably remain snow-starved, while Kevin to Cold-miser and ETaunton and other areas along the coastline cash in. Hopefully a few inches fall if not just to freshing things up for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ok...out now for a quick dog walk in the 1st subzero morning of her life. Bring some washer fluid for your glasses! Would like to get a good dump out of this... storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Interesting that BOX's forecast is based on a blend that includes the 12z EC and not the 00z EC. I'm not sure why they did it that way--thoughts? Contrary to popular belief, I have no question that a snow storm is in store here. That said, ALY's exuberance from yesterday afternoon's AFD has been replaced with a more somber approach. In other words, they are no longer mentioning yardsticks. I'm going to start paying attention to who is writing over there. There is definitely a weenie with a flair for the dramatic. He probably just wasn't on shift last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ok, up to -17, time to go work out in it. Good Arctic survival training. Have fun guys, looking good at this point. Euro has been rock solid let's hope for good things at 12z. We're inching ever closer to another one. later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not much disco about Tuesday's 1-2 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The ensembles really try to bomb the low near the BM based on how it looks on MSLP. Hopefully that will lessen the flip to sleet for some. I think Will is right, in that these srn systems are juicified and will probably try to hug the area near HSE and further north, until starting to make a right hand turn. That will help flood the mid levels with marginal air...that's kind of been my worry all along. The good news is that a) some models have ticked cooler in the mid levels like the euro... the surface temps are pretty cold..even for me. Hopefully this stays put, but I think it inches nw a little more. Hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The ensembles really try to bomb the low near the BM based on how it looks on MSLP. Hopefully that will lessen the flip to sleet for some. I think Will is right, in that these srn systems are juicified and will probably try to hug the area near HSE and further north, until starting to make a right hand turn. That will help flood the mid levels with marginal air...that's kind of been my worry all along. The good news is that a) some models have ticked cooler in the mid levels like the euro and the surface temps are pretty cold..even for me. Hopefully this stays put, but I think it inches nw a little more. Hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The ensembles really try to bomb the low near the BM based on how it looks on MSLP. Hopefully that will lessen the flip to sleet for some. I think Will is right, in that these srn systems are juicified and will probably try to hug the area near HSE and further north, until starting to make a right hand turn. That will help flood the mid levels with marginal air...that's kind of been my worry all along. The good news is that A) some models have ticked cooler in the mid levels like the euro and the surface temps are pretty cold..even for me. Hopefully this stays put, but I think it inches nw a little more. Hopefully not. EDIT: that's supposed to be a "b" not a sun tan face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The ensembles really try to bomb the low near the BM based on how it looks on MSLP. Hopefully that will lessen the flip to sleet for some. I think Will is right, in that these srn systems are juicified and will probably try to hug the area near HSE and further north, until starting to make a right hand turn. That will help flood the mid levels with marginal air...that's kind of been my worry all along. The good news is that a) some models have ticked cooler in the mid levels like the euro... the surface temps are pretty cold..even for me. Hopefully this stays put, but I think it inches nw a little more. Hopefully not. Please keep the sleet line south of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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