ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM ensemble mean is just a hair inside the BM. Not sure if anyone saw that already...but probably not as they came out not too long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 so it cold there? I hope I we can get another below zero day when I get back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 ECMWF ensemble mean trakcs the storm maybe just a hair inside the BM...mid-levels are just a touch warmer than the OP run, they probably bring sleet back up to Kevin's area in N CT or at least a HFD-PVD-GHG line before collapsing back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 3z SREFs came NW a bit, takes the 0 line from BOS to Kevin to HFD at the height of the storm, track just inside the BM. That seems pretty far NW for the SREF mean at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 ECMWF ensemble mean trakcs the storm maybe just a hair inside the BM...mid-levels are just a touch warmer than the OP run, they probably bring sleet back up to Kevin's area in N CT or at least a HFD-PVD-GHG line before collapsing back SE. Sounds an awful lot like Xmas '02...which was an absolute sleet fest here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 06z NAM appears its going to be a lot more amped than 00z which isn't saying much since that one was a whiff OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0Z ETA will be the outlier, 6Z trending towards 0Z GFS and EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 06z NAM looks like a perfect thread the needle weenie run for I-95 M.A. all the way up into SNE for trying to get mostly snow. It actually is a bit on the light side for SNE but good for south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow the euro op is tasty..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 06z NAM looks like a perfect thread the needle weenie run for I-95 M.A. all the way up into SNE for trying to get mostly snow. It actually is a bit on the light side for SNE but good for south of here. That's an amazing run down there... Earthlight needs more snow... it's been too long since his 30 inch storm. hehe. But seriously, it's a move in the right direction up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow the euro op is tasty..lol. Ensemble mean is just about the same, though maybe a slight more threat to mixing for areas like HFD and PVD...BOS probably fine on but might ping briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice shift north on the 6Z NAM. I'd be surprised if it doesn't trend further. ECMWF ensemble mean trakcs the storm maybe just a hair inside the BM...mid-levels are just a touch warmer than the OP run, they probably bring sleet back up to Kevin's area in N CT or at least a HFD-PVD-GHG line before collapsing back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not sure why the temps depicted are so warm at the surface, but the fact that the 40F line is pegged down by ACK is fine with me. Seems like a slightly cooler profile to me. Maybe winds are a hair more from the ne as depicted. Temps at 925mb are colder too. The 925mb circulation seems a tad se of 12z, so perhaps the mid level lows are tighter in with the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's an amazing run down there... Earthlight needs more snow... it's been too long since his 30 inch storm. hehe. But seriously, it's a move in the right direction up here. I'd expect the NAM to steadily move in the direction of the Euro at this point. This hasn't been a storm where the NAM led the way on where these solutions were going. In the Jan 12th storm it latched onto the idea of a small compact bomb that would track closer than globals were saying and didn't let go of it and others trended toward it. This time, its been all over the map with monster swings. This is where you probably just hold close to the ensemble mean for now...as its been very close to the steady Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM is a great weenie run for SE MA/RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Odd solution on the 6Z NAM with a hard stage right.... barely a flake north of MA-NH border Agreed, EURO has given most consistent solutions in past 2 days... and it appears other models (GGEM, GFS, NAM) jumping around but trending towards it, with a track 30 miles on either side of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM is a great weenie run for SE MA/RI Nam gives dc area qpf for the first time this season. Weird not seeing a hole in the dc area. I'm sure it's a fluke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jack Suslak Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Where did the joe Joyce post come from? That from the WBZ site too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Odd solution on the 6Z ETA with a hard stage right.... barely a flake north of MA-NH border Agreed, EURO has given most consistent solutions in past 2 days... and it appears other models (GGEM, GFS, ETA) jumping around but trending towards it, with a track 30 miles on either side of the BM You mean the 6z NAM? I think the ETA is now run as a member of the SREFs at 3/9/15/21z. A lot of those hi-res models are showing a sharp cuttoff to the precip and a turn more eastward with the storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Interestingly the RGEM doesn't support the GGEM at all.. the 6z RGEM is 1006mb strung out in southern AL/GA at 48hrs.. while the 00z GGEM is 999mb in far northern GA at 60 hours (6hrs later). Even accounting for the time stamp difference, the RGEM is much farther south, weaker, strong out (sort of that two low look). I think it's possible that the finer resolution models are picking up on some leading PVA that disrupts the storm formation and causes it to get strung out almost into two lows. The GGEM is pretty coarse if I remember so may not be picking up on this process as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ensemble mean is just about the same, though maybe a slight more threat to mixing for areas like HFD and PVD...BOS probably fine on but might ping briefly. Sounds like we ticked colder again..I'm starting to feel better about all snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well....messenger, Ray, Bostonwinter08 almost had me convinced to stay up for the Euro...glad I didn't as I might not have slept... As I mentioned just before going to bed, I expect it to trend slightly E based on the uncle and it did just that. Now we have pretty good consensus on a snowstorm this week. Can't ask for more than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well it's time..I think we will see some amounts near and probably over 20 inches in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well it's time..I think we will see some amounts near and probably over 20 inches in SNE Not a bad winter eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well it's time..I think we will see some amounts near and probably over 20 inches in SNE If the Euro can hold serve for the most part form here on out, then yes, in the CCB band, there will probably be someone that can break 20"....obviously an area that stays all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not a bad winter eh? Yeah it's been ok I guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well it's time..I think we will see some amounts near and probably over 20 inches in SNE Do you think I could see snow here on The East slope of the Berks? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If the Euro can hold serve for the most part form here on out, then yes, in the CCB band, there will probably be someone that can break 20"....obviously an area that stays all snow What does your gut tell you?? Does the sleet make it here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Do you think I could see snow here on The East slope of the Berks? TIA MPM says yesterdays 6z GFS says no.so probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What does your gut tell you?? Does the sleet make it here? Yes. My gut tells me it will try and be a little NW of current ensemble mean of most guidance right now. I might sleet for a time too, not sure. But its probably going to be a very juicy system with a ton of convection coming out of the gulf, so it might try and hug the coast a bit longer before turning right. Hopefully despite that, it stays cold enough for all snow. The guidance has been keeping it a bit colder in the mid-levels for longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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