40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ggem looks to have taken a chill pill early on. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Who are the other(s)? I haven't heard anyone else say this. That's because they're not on shift and don't post here. Easy on the burbank dissing. A few weeks ago when I was in the teeth of a heavy heavy warning for nothing he called it early and was right. He's a very good forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I cant speak for Groucho and Zippo but Im pretty sure Im getting hit pretty good, may mix at my location for a while. Im just reporting what he said which kind of shocked me. Agreement here, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's because they're not on shift and don't post here. Easy on the burbank dissing. A few weeks ago when I was in the teeth of a heavy heavy warning for nothing he called it early and was right. He's a very good forecaster. He just took the 2M GFS temps verbatim... Which were clearly above 32 for a lot of ESE Mas. But anyway, what could he possibly be thinking at this point??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So I've never done one of these before, but seems like this is the most appropriate time ever to present itself: AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ggem is still up and over us...blame it on the rain/milli vanilli-esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Speed is overrated imo......you get a good 12 hrs under a robust CCB and there is your 1-2'. Most of the really slow movers spin out so you only end up with a protracted period of nuisance snows. Yeah, even with speed we'll be looking good, unlike the last one. Feeling great about this here. Tick it NW a couple times and we're exactly where we have been all season. I think speed is important to an extent, all depending on the type/strength of the storm, but I suppose in a case such as the upcoming potential it may not be that big of a factor. It's all just going to depend on the hourly rates, snowgrowth and even snow ratios...if we can get 2-4''/HR type stuff for 5-8 hours with good snowgrowth than we'd be def be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 He just took the 2M GFS temps verbatim... Which were clearly above 32 for a lot of ESE Mas. But anyway, what could he possibly be thinking at this point??? No. This was the nam and rgem se ne snow bomb that became a snow tickler. He said very early tops was 3" despite the warning we had. Regardless read his blog. He has valid points they just may be wrong. It's not a personal affront to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's because they're not on shift and don't post here. Easy on the burbank dissing. A few weeks ago when I was in the teeth of a heavy heavy warning for nothing he called it early and was right. He's a very good forecaster. I happen to like Burbank, too, and have watched him since he first came on the air in Boston. I was just reporting what he said, and given the models to date, he seemed to agree with the outlier, the NAM, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's because they're not on shift and don't post here. Easy on the burbank dissing. A few weeks ago when I was in the teeth of a heavy heavy warning for nothing he called it early and was right. He's a very good forecaster. I agree. He may love the GFS but I'd take him any day of the week over all these skinny, bland, young, generic forecasters that are popping up everywhere because they don't command high salaries. I've said it before and I'll say it again it's criminal that Todd Gross isn't doing weather on Boston/Providence/Manchester tv at the moment!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM is well east of it's ridiculous 12Z depiction which basically had the low going just east of Denver..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 CMC is also colder than earlier runs and solidly 12 hours faster vs GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The model that I rely upon the most continues its amazing continuity from run to run in projecting a major storm in the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Normally, I would jump on the bandwagon and buy its solution. However, in closely analyzing the upper air perturbations, I am not convinced that this solution is superior. Barry Burbank. You can read the rest here: http://boston.cbslocal.com/2011/01/23/frigid-to-flakey/ When I talked about other forecasters not posting here consider how few new pros have been added in the last x years in terms of frequent posters. As the rules say attack the premise not the person. Burbank is a good guy and channel 4 would have been much better off with him as the lead versus everyone since Bruce schoewegler.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 No. This was the nam and rgem se ne snow bomb that became a snow tickler. He said very early tops was 3" despite the warning we had. Regardless read his blog. He has valid points they just may be wrong. It's not a personal affront to me. Oh now I remember. I didn't remember his forecast though. Def a good call there. But reading his blog just sounds like he's looking for reasons to go with the GFS. "Upper air perturbations". I've seen it way too often from him for it to be believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 CMC is also colder than earlier runs and solidly 12 hours faster vs GFS. The trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The model that I rely upon the most continues its amazing continuity from run to run in projecting a major storm in the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Normally, I would jump on the bandwagon and buy its solution. However, in closely analyzing the upper air perturbations, I am not convinced that this solution is superior. Barry Burbank. You can read the rest here: http://boston.cbsloc...igid-to-flakey/ When I talked about other forecasters not posting here consider how few new pros have been added in the last x years in terms of frequent posters. As the rules say attack the premise not the person. Burbank is a good guy and channel 4 would have been much better off with him as the lead versus everyone since Bruce schoewegler.. I like Barry....think he's basically a good met. But Schwoegler was a POS. I remember when he came in as a rookie...he sucked then and did till they booted him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM is well east of it's ridiculous 12Z depiction which basically had the low going just east of Denver..... It's a little east of 12z, but not drastically much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The consistency of the past three NOGAPS runs is remarkable (inclusive of 00z: solid hit worcester on east)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 "Meantime, it appears to me that a northern stream short wave in tandem with a deep vortex proceeding steadily across Hudson Bay will force the rather potent southern stream short wave more on an east-northeasterly path. With that setup, I cannot justify the Euro’s game plan of lifting that southern stream short northeastward toward Cape Cod. With all of this in mind, I suspect that the storm exiting the Carolina coast will at worst only brush the area with some light to maybe moderate snow over southeastern MA possibly up to the Boston area. " I'm posting it because I found it a little offensive that a 30 yr met gets bashed. He has is reasons and he's not alone among respected mets. Like he says not etched in stone but he feels it's irresponsible to mention totals at this range. I know everyone means well but yikes. Let's not accuse 30 yr mets who have spent their lives forecasting here of not looking at recent models etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I like Barry....think he's basically a good met. But Schwoegler was a POS. I remember when he came in as a rookie...he sucked then and did till they booted him. I like Barry when I'm really close into an event, when we're like 6 hours out or during a storm. He's usually very good then. But its the period from about 2-4+ days out where he's almost always going with the GFS. Now he can justify it with Upper Air Perturbations and the like, but its a GFS forecast in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ggem is still up and over us...blame it on the rain/milli vanilli-esque Couldn't care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's a little east of 12z, but not drastically much. Are you kidding me??? Inland runner at 12Z. Coast hugger at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I like Barry....think he's basically a good met. But Schwoegler was a POS. I remember when he came in as a rookie...he sucked then and did till they booted him. There were stories olberman esque in terms of playing well with others with B.S.. Always thought Burbank got the shaft. I think he wanted the lead and never got it. I think his reasoning is solid, it's the old look beyond the models type deal. Can't say I agree with him on this yet but have to respect his opinion. He's been at this longer than a lot of posters have been alive, forecasting for the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 "Meantime, it appears to me that a northern stream short wave in tandem with a deep vortex proceeding steadily across Hudson Bay will force the rather potent southern stream short wave more on an east-northeasterly path. With that setup, I cannot justify the Euro’s game plan of lifting that southern stream short northeastward toward Cape Cod. With all of this in mind, I suspect that the storm exiting the Carolina coast will at worst only brush the area with some light to maybe moderate snow over southeastern MA possibly up to the Boston area. " I'm posting it because I found it a little offensive that a 30 yr met gets bashed. He has is reasons and he's not alone among respected mets. Like he says not etched in stone but he feels it's irresponsible to mention totals at this range. I know everyone means well but yikes. Let's not accuse 30 yr mets who have spent their lives forecasting here of not looking at recent models etc. I agree, anything beyond conveying that you think he is wrong is inappropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 From Joe Joyce: The US GFS has this eastern outlier….and is likely too far east with it’s track as the foreign models are trending further west…I favor these solutions for now. ..still several days away to fine tune. The stakes are high as usual. With the high pushing off the coast and heading towards Georges Bank and Newfoundland…this is not the best setup for heavy snow in Southern New England. Also the NAO has gone slightly positive and that is more favorable for more western tracks and mixed events as well. Make no mistake about it, this storm will be powerful and may even reach near blizzard conditions again for some inland areas, NW of Boston. A period of strong onshore winds could lead to some minor coastal flooding too. The GFS is the Eastern Outlier... And Barry Burbank's forecast is the "Eastern Outlier". Now he may have his reasons, but this has been a consistent thing with him for years. Of courser he's going to have reasons why he's siding with the GFS as usual. I could have guessed Barry's forecast without even looking at it. I'm just being honest, and I respect his seniority, etc... But I'm telling you, he's a severe GFS hugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Are you kidding me??? Inland runner at 12Z. Coast hugger at 0Z. 12z went over my head. 00z is near PWM. I said it went a bit east. You exaggerated and said "it was near Denver" which gives the impression it ran up through BUF or ALB or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looks like I changed my flight for nothing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 From Joe Joyce: The US GFS has this eastern outlier….and is likely too far east with it’s track as the foreign models are trending further west…I favor these solutions for now. ..still several days away to fine tune. The stakes are high as usual. With the high pushing off the coast and heading towards Georges Bank and Newfoundland…this is not the best setup for heavy snow in Southern New England. Also the NAO has gone slightly positive and that is more favorable for more western tracks and mixed events as well. Make no mistake about it, this storm will be powerful and may even reach near blizzard conditions again for some inland areas, NW of Boston. A period of strong onshore winds could lead to some minor coastal flooding too. We are seeing what the ma did last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well I'm out. We have BM for GFS...probably inside for UKMET....CMC moving towards them, and NAM not really ready it seems. Ensembles tonight are a bit faster than the OP and maybe JUST outside the BM but not by much...hard to tell in the mean. Good signs tonight. Euro will be interesting but I don't expect much in the way of changes. I'm out...will catch it in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 From Joe Joyce: The US GFS has this eastern outlier….and is likely too far east with it’s track as the foreign models are trending further west…I favor these solutions for now. ..still several days away to fine tune. The stakes are high as usual. With the high pushing off the coast and heading towards Georges Bank and Newfoundland…this is not the best setup for heavy snow in Southern New England. Also the NAO has gone slightly positive and that is more favorable for more western tracks and mixed events as well. Make no mistake about it, this storm will be powerful and may even reach near blizzard conditions again for some inland areas, NW of Boston. A period of strong onshore winds could lead to some minor coastal flooding too. The GFS is the Eastern Outlier... And Barry Burbank's forecast is the "Eastern Outlier". Now he may have his reasons, but this has been a consistent thing with him for years. Of courser he's going to have reasons why he's siding with the GFS as usual. I could have guessed Barry's forecast without even looking at it. I'm just being honest, and I respect his seniority, etc... But I'm telling you, he's a severe GFS hugger I thin the main question is how can a station like WBZ can allow severe fluctuations in their forecasts? i.e their afternoon forecasts to be snowier and their evening forecasts be drier (Joe Joyce Aft, Barry eve) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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