sankaty Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The big feature again is the fresh HP showing up to the NW feeding in fresher cold and thwarting the warm attack. That has been showing up for 2 days now and that is the difference in the solutions from 3 days ago where it was very warm and today where the warmth was thwarted somewhat. Been noticing that, too. Is it because the system is so much slower that a new HP has time to advance? Seems to aid in the 0C line collapsing toward the low center as it gains latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The big feature again is the fresh HP showing up to the NW feeding in fresher cold and thwarting the warm attack. That has been showing up for 2 days now and that is the difference in the solutions from 3 days ago where it was very warm and today where the warmth was thwarted somewhat. What he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 HA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I checked the TwisterData soundings for Middletown, and the column is microscopically above freezing at 72h, microscopically below freezing at 78h, and well below by 84h. Verbatim, think we'd start off as a bit of sleet but quickly change to snow. West Hartford would be incrementally colder, obviously. Have a feeling that we'd be fine on this track, and even more than 50% snow (and all frozen) as long as the track is over ACK or further SE. This is going to be real interesting to track, I'm happy with the GFS track for us, you are right though, any warm layers aren't very long lasting for us anyway, looks like there could be quite a temp. gradient across CT though around 800mb to start the event. I'm also wondering about the storms speed, this is going to be very important in assessing how intense this will actually be for us as far as max snowfall totals go, GFS seems pretty fast with it's speed but with it closing off at 500mb south of us I wonder if we'd see a slower speed....models have been crazy with timing though the past few days so I'm not going to worry about this too much right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lol u havent been following my posts have you (dont blame you) i meant of the snow.....the REAL snow. your living history right now. Yes, it is getting impressive even by MTL standards now, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think people are just having fun and it's been pointed out by me multiple times that the bm tracks have ended up nw each time. (to the red tagger with the letter name) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Weatherman in Boston is reporting barely anything for this storm? Just said just a brushing with light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That GFS QPF is pretty damn impressive, just goes to show how much moisture is available with this system and the strength of the lift we will be dealing with. This is something I'd expect from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Burbank going with an out to sea solution at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Barry Burbank just said it's a scraper. Guess he's hugging the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Burbank going with an out to sea solution at this time FAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is going to be real interesting to track, I'm happy with the GFS track for us, you are right though, any warm layers aren't very long lasting for us anyway, looks like there could be quite a temp. gradient across CT though around 800mb to start the event. I'm also wondering about the storms speed, this is going to be very important in assessing how intense this will actually be for us as far as max snowfall totals go, GFS seems pretty fast with it's speed but with it closing off at 500mb south of us I wonder if we'd see a slower speed....models have been crazy with timing though the past few days so I'm not going to worry about this too much right now. Speed is overrated imo......you get a good 12 hrs under a robust CCB and there is your 1-2'. Most of the really slow movers spin out so you only end up with a protracted period of nuisance snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Barry Burbank just said it's a scraper. Guess he's hugging the NAM. He's a gfs guy. Can tell you he is not the only on air bos that thinks this is still a miss at this time but like I said who cares it's a day away from even being close to the zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Speed is overrated imo......you get a good 12 hrs under a robust CCB and there is your 1-2'. Most of the really slow movers spin out so you only end up with a protracted period of nuisance snows. a la jan 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Burbank's blog is a good read for his thinking. Either he's hugging the NAM.. or he wants to jinx himself for a big hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I kind of think its irresponsible for 1 station to be saying 10-15 inches with sleet mixing in at the coast (WHDH) while the walking talking GFS says a scraper. Who should the public believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 He's a gfs guy. Can tell you he is not the only on air bos that thinks this is still a miss at this time but like I said who cares it's a day away from even being close to the zone. Hes a GFS verbatim met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Burbank is a good met, but he wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 He's a gfs guy. Can tell you he is not the only on air bos that thinks this is still a miss at this time but like I said who cares it's a day away from even being close to the zone. If you ever read his blogs, you'd think otherwise. If anything he favors the Euro...but for some reason isn't on board this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That GFS QPF is pretty damn impressive, just goes to show how much moisture is available with this system and the strength of the lift we will be dealing with. This is something I'd expect from the NAM. Yeah, even with speed we'll be looking good, unlike the last one. Feeling great about this here. Tick it NW a couple times and we're exactly where we have been all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Barry Burbank just said it's a scraper. Guess he's hugging the NAM. The NAM is beginning to look like a lady of ill repute, ostracized by her peers (ECWF, GFS, GESF, GGM and even the JP3 and NOGAPS). Hugging her in public is probably not wise policy........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If you ever read his blogs, you'd think otherwise. If anything he favors the Euro...but for some reason isn't on board this time His 7 day ALWAYS reflects the GFS, but he always mentions the possibility for changes if the EURO says otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I kind of think its irresponsible for 1 station to be saying 10-15 inches with sleet mixing in at the coast (WHDH) while the walking talking GFS says a scraper. Who should the public believe? Lawsuit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Barry Burbank just said OTS and smooth sailing for this week. I'm shocked that he would say that at his point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Weatherman in Boston is reporting barely anything for this storm? Just said just a brushing with light snow. Burbank going with an out to sea solution at this time Barry Burbank just said it's a scraper. Guess he's hugging the NAM. M M M MULTI FAIL. Are you three a comedy team? Read the thread! Euro OP and Ensembles, GFS Ensembles, and now 0z GFS all show a big hit for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 His 7 day ALWAYS reflects the GFS, but he always mentions the possibility for changes if the EURO says otherwise. Maybe I just haven't looked closely enough. I remember years ago when he used to be on mornings he was a big GFS hugger...i.e. when the 06z would come in he'd change his forecast. For some reason I thought he was off of that. Just me I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 He's a gfs guy. Can tell you he is not the only on air bos that thinks this is still a miss at this time but like I said who cares it's a day away from even being close to the zone. Who are the other(s)? I haven't heard anyone else say this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Maybe I just haven't looked closely enough. I remember years ago when he used to be on mornings he was a big GFS hugger...i.e. when the 06z would come in he'd change his forecast. For some reason I thought he was off of that. Just me I guess. Yeah, I really don't take him seriously to be honest. He's been a severe GFS verbatim guy for several years now and it's kind of annoying that when its clear this storm is coming up the coast, he still hugs the latest GFS that he's likely seen (18z) and says its a scraper. His forecasts take wild swings with every run of the GFS, including the 6z and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ggem looks to have taken a chill pill early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 M M M MULTI FAIL. Are you three a comedy team? Read the thread! Euro OP and Ensembles, GFS Ensembles, and now 0z GFS all show a big hit for Boston. I cant speak for Groucho and Zippo but Im pretty sure Im getting hit pretty good, may mix at my location for a while. Im just reporting what he said which kind of shocked me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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