Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm still a little worried about a nw trend for the next two days. Give me this solution on Tuesday night. Lol. Usually by now/am run we would have seen that nudge just west of the bm which becomes ack. I feel better with the nam not jamming left particularly if we see the west side gang go to consensus. I think maybe we finally see a thru and thru bm track and not a housewives of jersey shore to bm track? Hatteras to bm would work for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm still a little worried about a nw trend for the next two days. Give me this solution on Tuesday night. I don't know....the NAM sniffing the convective vorticity glue has me concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 UKIE pretty similar to the GFS maybe a shade NW through 72.. main difference is it's just a little slower. I sill think this is going to track right along the coast west of 12z Euro track. Not surprising to see the GFS correct, I don't think it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm still a little worried about a nw trend for the next two days. Give me this solution on Tuesday night. Yeah...at least this sfc low track makes sense given what the GFS is doing aloft. I guess the key is now is where does the vm track...the EC is a bit NW of this GFS run in between ACK and the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Agreed sir...this looks good for southern NH. Wish this was 36 hours from now; I'd lock it up then Heck, this is a solid 8-12'' deal at the BM. I'll take that and run. We should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ray if it comes more northwest we would still be good right? I think you mentioned we had 80 or so miles of nw swing... Where are you....I would be fine with this going over ACK, but inside of there and it would get dicey. I Said I had room for the EURO to trend like 80 mi to the EAST.....not west....God no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm still a little worried about a nw trend for the next two days. Give me this solution on Tuesday night. I was struck by how quickly the 1020 isobar moves east between 66 and 78 - might that suggest that this is something more than the "usual trend W"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Where are you....I would be fine with this going over ACK, but inside of there and it would get dicey. I Said I had room for the EURO to trend like 80 mi to the EAST.....not west....God no. Danvers so I base my expectations on what you say for the general area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You can toss the gfs...its almost showing snow for me so clearly it's forked up. You are the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah...at least this sfc low track makes sense given what the GFS is doing aloft. I guess the key is now is where does the vm track...the EC is a bit NW of this GFS run in between ACK and the BM. I think this will def. be inside the BM...felt so all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS is Finally In! So GFS And the Euro are on for a foot. NAM oddly enough, out to sea. I still trust the NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like at least one warm layer between 800-825mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think this will def. be inside the BUM...felt so all along. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think this will def. be inside the BM...felt so all along. Said it earlier between the benchmark and ack............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Heck, this is a solid 8-12'' deal at the BM. I'll take that and run. We should be good. Exactly. I'm thinking so. I'll even take a 6-incher with the kind of winter we've had...but if a foot plus is on the table, even better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Danvers so I base my expectations on what you say for the general area... I think you would want this to stay a hair outside of ACK because you a more prone to low level contamination than I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I wonder if most, if not all of us start off as sleet from this? Perhaps the strength of the warmth is being overmodeled but that's some slug of warmth up around 800mb to start off the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hope you guys are taking pics, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was struck by how quickly the 1020 isobar moves east between 66 and 78 - might that suggest that this is something more than the "usual trend W"? Most of us have felt that something inside the BM to ACK would be the outcome. The clown 18z runs were likely just that. My guess is a track maybe near and just se of ACK, for now. These srn systems will turn north on a dime if there is a weakness in the flow, such as less confluence. The baroclinic zone off of Hatteras is another reason too. Last year we had all these, only we had monster confluence to our northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hope you guys are taking pics, btw. To remember all the pretty cybersnow by? Oh ye of little faith.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I agree. Come on....Brain and Will have been lenient.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 To remember all the pretty cybersnow by? Oh ye of little faith.......... lol u havent been following my posts have you (dont blame you) i meant of the snow.....the REAL snow. your living history right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well I'm out. Hopefully the rest of the 00z suite is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Most of us have felt that something inside the BM to ACK would be the outcome. The clown 18z runs were likely just that. My guess is a track maybe near and just se of ACK, for now. These srn systems will turn north on a dime if there is a weakness in the flow, such as less confluence. The baroclinic zone off of Hatteras is another reason too. Last year we had all these, only we had monster confluence to our northeast. Or as we found out over and over last year inside of 72 hrs slip se with more confluence. Not saying it's happening now just pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like at least one warm layer between 800-825mb. I checked the TwisterData soundings for Middletown, and the column is microscopically above freezing at 72h, microscopically below freezing at 78h, and well below by 84h. Verbatim, think we'd start off as a bit of sleet but quickly change to snow. West Hartford would be incrementally colder, obviously. Have a feeling that we'd be fine on this track, and even more than 50% snow (and all frozen) as long as the track is over ACK or further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The big feature again is the fresh HP showing up to the NW feeding in fresher cold and thwarting the warm attack. That has been showing up for 2 days now and that is the difference in the solutions from 3 days ago where it was very warm and today where the warmth was thwarted somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Or as we found out over and over last year inside of 72 hrs slip se with more confluence. Not saying it's happening now just pointing it out. Won't happen....diff. year. Anyone notice that what was once a high retreating off the coast is noW optimally placed; we are a walking deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The big feature again is the fresh HP showing up to the NW feeding in fresher cold and thwarting the warm attack. That has been showing up for 2 days now and that is the difference in the solutions from 3 days ago where it was very warm and today where the warmth was thwarted somewhat. Won't happen....diff. year. Anyone notice that what was once a high retreating off the coast is no optimally placed; we are a walking deformation band. HA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Most of us have felt that something inside the BM to ACK would be the outcome. The clown 18z runs were likely just that. My guess is a track maybe near and just se of ACK, for now. These srn systems will turn north on a dime if there is a weakness in the flow, such as less confluence. The baroclinic zone off of Hatteras is another reason too. Last year we had all these, only we had monster confluence to our northeast. I guess my point is that the earlier model runs showing W tracks (even just coast huggers) also lacked HP to the N, with the H departing E. The track just SE of ACK would be bad for snow here as well if the setup did not also include the new HP moving into position in Western Quebec.......is this not so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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